Exclusive - Panic Rocks Kurds in Qandil Mountains over Incessant Turkey, Iran Attacks

A fence surrounds a PKK camp in the Qandil Mountains. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A fence surrounds a PKK camp in the Qandil Mountains. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Exclusive - Panic Rocks Kurds in Qandil Mountains over Incessant Turkey, Iran Attacks

A fence surrounds a PKK camp in the Qandil Mountains. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
A fence surrounds a PKK camp in the Qandil Mountains. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Residents in over 20 Kurdish villages wedged between Iraqi, Iranian and Turkish borders have been living in a state of total horror and panic.

Kurds in that region have been chased down by a series of semi-nonstop Turkish airstrikes coupled with intermittent Iranian artillery shelling that have been taking out targets in the eastern plains of the Qandil Mountains since fall 2018.

Arbitrary strikes launched by Turkish warplanes on August 19, for example, severely injured four farmers who were harvesting crops at Pauli village. Large swathes of farmland filled with a variety of fruit-bearing groves were grazed to the ground.

The very same raids uprooted villagers, who fled in fear of violence, in seven neighboring communities.

Ahmed Nour, 45, reported great damage to his house.

“Turkish fighter jets keep buzzing in the skies. Targets and any movements in our villages are fired at indiscriminately. Their vengeful strikes are destroying our farmlands and have forced villagers to flee,” Nour told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Responding to Turkish claims about Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) members being hosted by Kurdish villages in the Qandil Mountains, he said: “We are farmers and our only sources of living are the crops and fields we have worked hard to grow over the last years… We have nothing to do with political parties.”

“Our villages have no armed presence, whether it is the PKK or Iranian opposition parties. Despite that, Turkish jets target our homes and fields, most of which have been burned to the ground,” Nour added.

Targeted Kurds, facing escalatory Turkish and Iranian violence, have turned to blaming regional sovereign authorities for their inaction as their homes get leveled by fierce attacks.

Soran Rasoul, 26, a livestock keeper, said: “We hold the authorities in Baghdad and the Iraqi Kurdistan Region responsible for our tragic situation, because they do not take any deterring action against Turkey’s hostility.”

Strongly rebuffing Ankara’s claims on PKK militias being present in the villages, he noted that “sovereign states should protect their citizens and territories when subjected to humiliating attacks, such as those being committed by Turkey on a near daily basis.”

“Only one or two members of each family have stayed behind to safeguard our property and fields, while Baghdad and Erbil are standing idle.”



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.