Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019
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Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

A report on the Ministry of Finance and National Economy’s performance for Q2 2019 revealed a budget deficit of 16 billion Sudanese pounds ($355 million), with revenues of 61.8 billion pounds ($1.37 billion) and expenditures of 77.8 billion pounds ($1.37 billion).

The growth rate has also declined to negative 2.1 percent.

Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning Dr. Abdul-Moneim al-Tayeb told Asharq Al-Awsat that 2019’s budget has faced challenges, notably weak revenues, lack of strategic goods and means to pay workers’ salaries.

He explained that the 77.8 billion pounds spent were allocated for strategic goods and salaries and to face the liquidity crisis that has been sweeping the country for more than a year now.

The 2019 budget has targeted achieving a growth rate by the end of this year in the range of 5.3 percent.

However, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) economic outlook report has confirmed the decline in April to negative 2.1 percent despite Sudan’s nomination by several institutions, which expected growth in the country by up to five percent this year.

The World Bank said in a report in April Sudan’s GDP in 2019 is expected to grow by 3.1 percent in line with the forecasts of equal economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Bank said in its June Global Economic Prospects’ report that the country’s GDP growth will continue over the next two years, rising by 2.6 percent in 2018 to 3.1 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020.

However, the latest data from the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) indicated that the GDP growth of Sudan's economy shrank to negative 2.1 percent in 2018 and worsened to negative 2.3 percent for the current year 2019.

It also expected some improvement within the circle of contraction by a negative 1.3 percent in 2020.

Inflation also rose in the country to 52.59 percent in July, compared with 47.78 percent in June and 44.95 percent in May.

Economic Professor at the University of Expatriates Mohamed al-Nayer, for his part, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Sudanese economy has faced a series of challenges during the last three decades that affected its growth potential and macroeconomic balances.



Oil Prices Edge up as Market Assesses Trump's Tariff Plans

FILE PHOTO: A ship is moored near storage tanks at an oil refinery off the coast of Singapore October 17, 2008. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A ship is moored near storage tanks at an oil refinery off the coast of Singapore October 17, 2008. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash/File Photo
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Oil Prices Edge up as Market Assesses Trump's Tariff Plans

FILE PHOTO: A ship is moored near storage tanks at an oil refinery off the coast of Singapore October 17, 2008. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A ship is moored near storage tanks at an oil refinery off the coast of Singapore October 17, 2008. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash/File Photo

Oil prices picked up on Tuesday, after the previous session's sell-off, as the market assessed US President-elect Donald Trump's planned trade tariffs on Mexico and Canada and his aim to increase US crude production.

Oil prices had fallen more than $2 a barrel on Monday after multiple reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a ceasefire in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. A senior Israeli official said Israel looks set to approve a US plan for a ceasefire on Tuesday, but some analysts said Monday's sell-off in oil prices had been overdone.

Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $73.44 a barrel as of 1414 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.38 a barrel, up 44 cents, or 0.6%.

Brent crude futures fluctuated between $73.30 and $73.80 a barrel in afternoon trading.

"Today’s intra-day fluctuations are probably more of the function of assessing Trump’s overnight pledge to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China," PVM analyst Tamas Varga said.

On Monday, Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada.

The vast majority of Canada's 4 million bpd of crude exports go to the US Analysts have said it is unlikely Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from grades that the US produces.

On Monday, Reuters reported that Trump's team is also preparing an energy package to roll out within days of his taking office that would increase oil drilling.

A senior executive at Exxon Mobil said on Tuesday that US oil and gas producers are unlikely to "radically increase'' production.

OPEC+ MEETING

Market reaction on Monday to the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire news was "over the top" as the broader Middle East conflict has "never actually disrupted supplies significantly to induce war premiums" this year, said senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva at Phillip Nova.

Elsewhere, OPEC+ at its next meeting on Sunday may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1. The producer group is already postponing hikes amid global demand worries.