Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019
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Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

Sudan’s Economy Shrinks 2.1% in Q2 2019

A report on the Ministry of Finance and National Economy’s performance for Q2 2019 revealed a budget deficit of 16 billion Sudanese pounds ($355 million), with revenues of 61.8 billion pounds ($1.37 billion) and expenditures of 77.8 billion pounds ($1.37 billion).

The growth rate has also declined to negative 2.1 percent.

Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning Dr. Abdul-Moneim al-Tayeb told Asharq Al-Awsat that 2019’s budget has faced challenges, notably weak revenues, lack of strategic goods and means to pay workers’ salaries.

He explained that the 77.8 billion pounds spent were allocated for strategic goods and salaries and to face the liquidity crisis that has been sweeping the country for more than a year now.

The 2019 budget has targeted achieving a growth rate by the end of this year in the range of 5.3 percent.

However, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) economic outlook report has confirmed the decline in April to negative 2.1 percent despite Sudan’s nomination by several institutions, which expected growth in the country by up to five percent this year.

The World Bank said in a report in April Sudan’s GDP in 2019 is expected to grow by 3.1 percent in line with the forecasts of equal economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Bank said in its June Global Economic Prospects’ report that the country’s GDP growth will continue over the next two years, rising by 2.6 percent in 2018 to 3.1 percent in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020.

However, the latest data from the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) indicated that the GDP growth of Sudan's economy shrank to negative 2.1 percent in 2018 and worsened to negative 2.3 percent for the current year 2019.

It also expected some improvement within the circle of contraction by a negative 1.3 percent in 2020.

Inflation also rose in the country to 52.59 percent in July, compared with 47.78 percent in June and 44.95 percent in May.

Economic Professor at the University of Expatriates Mohamed al-Nayer, for his part, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the Sudanese economy has faced a series of challenges during the last three decades that affected its growth potential and macroeconomic balances.



Gold Jumps, on Track for Best Week in Over a Year on Safe-haven Demand

FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
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Gold Jumps, on Track for Best Week in Over a Year on Safe-haven Demand

FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Gold bullions are displayed at GoldSilver Central's office in Singapore June 19, 2017. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo

Gold prices rose over 1% to hit a two-week peak on Friday, heading for the best weekly performance in more than a year, buoyed by safe-haven demand as Russia-Ukraine tensions intensified.

Spot gold jumped 1.3% to $2,703.05 per ounce as of 1245 GMT, hitting its highest since Nov. 8. US gold futures gained 1.1% to $2,705.30.

Bullion rose despite the US dollar hitting a 13-month high, while bitcoin hit a record peak and neared the $100,000 level.

"With both gold and USD (US dollar) rising, it seems that safe-haven demand is lifting both assets," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Ukraine's military said its drones struck four oil refineries, radar stations and other military installations in Russia, Reuters reported.

Gold has gained over 5% so far this week, its best weekly performance since October 2023. Prices have gained around $173 after slipping to a two-month low last week.

"We understand that the price setback has been used by 'Western world' investors under-allocated to gold to build exposure considering the geopolitical risks that are still around. So we continue to expect gold to rise further over the coming months," Staunovo said.

Bullion tends to shine during geopolitical tensions, economic risks, and a low interest rate environment. Markets are pricing in a 59.4% chance of a 25-basis-points cut at the Fed's December meeting, per the CME Fedwatch tool.

However, "if Fed skips or pauses its rate cut in December, that will be negative for gold prices and we could see some pullback," said Soni Kumari, a commodity strategist at ANZ.

The Chicago Federal Reserve president reiterated his support for further US interest rate cuts on Thursday.

On Friday, spot silver rose 1.8% to $31.34 per ounce, platinum eased 0.1% to $960.13 and palladium fell 0.6% to $1,023.55. All three metals were on track for a weekly rise.