Egyptian Stocks Plunge, Pound Rises to Highest Levels in 3 Years

A trader works at the Egyptian stock exchange, Cairo, Egypt, Sept. 20, 2018. (Reuters)
A trader works at the Egyptian stock exchange, Cairo, Egypt, Sept. 20, 2018. (Reuters)
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Egyptian Stocks Plunge, Pound Rises to Highest Levels in 3 Years

A trader works at the Egyptian stock exchange, Cairo, Egypt, Sept. 20, 2018. (Reuters)
A trader works at the Egyptian stock exchange, Cairo, Egypt, Sept. 20, 2018. (Reuters)

Egypt's stock fell to its lowest level since 2016 on Sunday after a few, but rare, protests on Friday evening, threatening to tarnish the nation’s image as an emerging-market safe haven, following a series of bold economic reforms.

The Egyptian pound continued to rise against the dollar to reach its highest level in three years and recorded 16.23 pounds against the dollar.

The EGX30 retreated 5.3 percent, the most for any single day since 2016, as every member declined, while the wider EGX100 index lost 5.7 percent, its biggest drop since 2012.

Additionally, Commercial International Bank dropped 4.2 percent and Eastern Co was down 5.7 percent.

The broader index EGX100 slumped 5.7 percent, the most since November 2012, with 95 of 100 stocks dropping, causing trading to be suspended due to a 5 percent swing for the first time since 2016.

On Friday, people protested in central Cairo and several other cities, in the first such demonstrations in the country since 2016.

"It is definitely due to the small escalation over the weekend, which is making investors cautious,” said Ashraf Akhnoukh, director at Arqaam Capital in Cairo.

The sellers were mostly locals and Arab investors as foreign investors were not trading on Sunday, he added.

The blue-chip index is still up 7.1 percent year-to date and has risen during the year on the back of foreign buying amid an economic recovery and a recent interest rate cut.

Egyptian shares lost more than $1.90 billion of their market value, and the stock exchange's management stopped trading on more than 100 shares during transactions after falling more than 5 percent.

A number of analysts described the reaction of the market as exaggerated, especially after foreign financial institutions seized the opportunities of Egyptian and Arab sales to make large purchases in the market.

Ibrahim al-Nimr of Naeem Securities Brokerage said that the main index had a clear support at 14,250 points and breaking it may target 13,850 points, but in case of a higher rebound it will target 14,800 points.

Meanwhile, Chairman of 3Way, a securities trading company, Rania Yacoub explained that the situation of the market is an unjustified decline governed by individuals, not institutions.

“If there are any security or political concerns you will find selling from institutions and not individuals.”

Head of research at Pharos Investment Bank, Radwa el-Swaify noted that financial institutions will take advantage of the downturn and build purchasing positions in equities, which is what happens as a result of the closure of the financial positions of individuals investing in the market.



Türkiye Inflation Higher than Expected, Teeing up Tough Rate Decision

 People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
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Türkiye Inflation Higher than Expected, Teeing up Tough Rate Decision

 People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)
People shop at a fresh market in Istanbul, Türkiye, July 5, 2024. (Reuters)

Turkish inflation was higher than expected at 47.09% annually and 2.24% on a monthly basis in November, official data showed on Tuesday, potentially reducing the prospect of an interest rate cut later this month.

Prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks jumped 5.1% from the previous month, the Turkish Statistical Institute data showed, underlining the central bank's continued struggle against years of high inflation. Health-related prices rose 2.69%.

In a Reuters poll, the consumer price index inflation rate was expected to slow to 46.6% on an annual basis, while the monthly figure was seen at 1.91%, mainly due to food and medicine prices.

Although above expectations, annual inflation in November was at its lowest level since mid-2023. In October, annual inflation was 48.58% with the monthly rate at 2.88%.

The central bank has hiked rates by 4,150 basis points since June last year as part of an abrupt shift to economic orthodoxy, and has kept its policy rate steady at 50% since March.

It is watching monthly inflation closely as it decides when to cut its main interest rate, with expectations having grown in recent weeks that easing could come as soon as December.

Delaying rate cuts until next year, after "critical decisions" on the minimum wage and other administered prices "would be more appropriate", said Haluk Burumcekci, founding partner at Burumcekci Consulting, of an expected Jan. 1 rise to minimum wage.

But he added the central bank's latest policy statement "suggests that rate cuts are a serious option" for December.

After its policy meeting last month, the bank said it would set its rate to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path, setting the stage for a cautious easing cycle.

The bank had also predicted that food would elevate overall inflation in November. Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz said on Tuesday that while food inflation remained high, aside from that there was a broadly more positive trend.

The Turkish lira was little changed after the data at 34.7505 to the dollar, having earlier touched a record low.

Economists had flagged medicine prices as an inflation driver in November since the government late last month hiked by 23.5% the euro rate for imported medicines.

The domestic producer price index was up 0.66% month-on-month in November for an annual rise of 29.47%, according to the data.

The Reuters poll showed annual inflation falling to 44.8% by year-end, close to the central bank's target of 44%. It also showed inflation falling to 26.5% at end-2025, compared to the central bank's view of 21%.