Yemen: Security Tension in Abyan, Shabwa and Socotra

A general view of Aden. (Reuters)
A general view of Aden. (Reuters)
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Yemen: Security Tension in Abyan, Shabwa and Socotra

A general view of Aden. (Reuters)
A general view of Aden. (Reuters)

As services in Yemen's interim capital Aden continue to deteriorate, security tension mounts between the legitimate government and the followers of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Abyan, Shabwa, and Socotra.

Yemenis hope that Jeddah dialogue would result in normalizing the relation among Yemeni components and unifying efforts to face the Houthi coup.

In this context, local sources and witnesses told Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper that there is a security tension in Abyan, Shabwa, and Socotra.

STC followers accused the legitimate government of repressing Thursday a protest that called for separating south Yemen from its north. They demanded, in a statement, restoring forces known as ‘Shabwani Elite’ to handle security tasks in the province.

One at least was killed and others were wounded by the fire of government forces in Azzan, according to the statement that also accused the government forces of arresting several activists.

STC followers called for the return of ‘Shabwani Elite’ to their previous positions and all the province regions to maintain security, stability and to combat terrorist groups.

Moreover, government sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the legitimate security bodies are carrying out their duties in protecting the government headquarters and maintaining security as well as preventing the spread of chaos.

Field sources in Abyan reported that the government forces were keen in the past weeks to reinforce their military presence in Abyan regions in coincidence with STC forces continuing to foster their presence in regions ruled by them especially in Zinjibar and Jaar.

Yemeni activists told the newspaper that they hoped the ongoing dialogue in Jeddah would progress between the legitimacy and the STC leadership.

According to political sources close to the legitimate government, there is no direct dialogue until now between the parties’ representatives. However, the sources affirmed to the newspaper that there are Saudi efforts that would result in an agreement to end the crisis and guarantee the return of the legitimate government to Aden.



Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
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Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.