Billionaires' Wealth Falls for First Time Since 2015

Image via Reuters
Image via Reuters
TT

Billionaires' Wealth Falls for First Time Since 2015

Image via Reuters
Image via Reuters

The world’s richest people became a little less well off last year, according to a report by UBS (UBSG.S) and PwC, as geopolitical turmoil and volatile equity markets reduced the wealth of billionaires for the first time since 2015.

Billionaires’ wealth fell by 4.3% globally to $8.5 trillion last year, the UBS/PwC report found, with a sharp decline in Greater China, including Hong Kong, and the Asia-Pacific region more broadly.

Private wealth in Hong Kong fell 4% in 2018 to $319.8 billion, the report showed, with months of anti-government protests in the Chinese-ruled city and an economic recession clouding the outlook this year.

Some Hong Kong tycoons have begun moving personal wealth offshore, Reuters reported in June, as concerns deepen over the protests.

“We haven’t seen any significant outflows, we have been tracking some of these numbers on a regular basis,” said Amy Lo, UBS co-head of Asia Pacific wealth management. “Our clients have been diversifying all along, it’s not in the last one year.”

Private banks including the world’s largest wealth manager UBS have felt the effects of US-China trade tensions and global political uncertainties, as clients last year shied away from trading and taking on debt in favor of hoarding cash.

The net worth of China’s richest dropped 12.8% in dollar terms on the back of tumbling stock markets, a weaker local currency and a slowdown in growth, the report found, knocking dozens off the billionaires list.

Despite the drop, China still produces a new billionaire every 2-2.5 days, UBS’s head of ultra-high net worth clients, Josef Stadler, said in the report released on Friday.

Worldwide, the number of billionaires fell everywhere except in the Americas, where tech entrepreneurs continued to buoy the ranks of the United States’ wealthiest.

“This report shows the resilience of the US economy,” where there were 749 billionaires at the end of 2018, said John Matthews, head of private wealth management and ultra-high net worth business for UBS in the United States.

According to Reuters, while a stock market recovery from a steep drop in late 2018 has helped wealth managers increase their assets, the world’s richest families remain concerned about global affairs from trade tensions and Brexit to populism and climate change and are keeping more of their money in cash.

“It is likely that billionaire wealth will go up again this year,” said Simon Smiles, UBS’s chief investment officer for ultra-wealthy clients, adding it would likely be a more muted increase than the wider financial market rally might suggest.



After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
TT

After Trump’s Victory, Arab Demands for Competitive Advantages Due to Regional Tensions

Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)
Donald Trump addresses his supporters at the West Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida on Wednesday. (EPA)

With the election of Donald Trump as US president, the global economy has gained direction for the coming years. Trump’s policies favor corporate tax cuts, increased investment, and expansionary monetary policies. He also promotes local production to boost job creation, which involves imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, particularly in Asia. This approach could trigger a trade war, affecting inflation in both the US and worldwide.

The US economy is already grappling with high prices, slower economic growth, and rising unemployment, alongside a national debt nearing 99% of GDP. This backdrop underscores the importance of economic issues in the recent election.

For the new US administration, domestic concerns will not be the sole priority. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, especially recent Middle Eastern conflicts, will also impact the US economy. To gain regional insights, Asharq Al-Awsat consulted economists from various Arab nations on their expectations and requests from the US president regarding the Middle East.

Priority of Regional Stability

Dr. Mohamed Youssef, an Egyptian economist, emphasized that regional stability is crucial, benefiting the economy and paving the way for resolving complex issues like the Nile Dam dispute affecting Egypt. He highlighted the American role in fostering calm in the region.

Iraqi economist Durgham Mohamed Ali noted that US relations vary across the Middle East; while Lebanon and Yemen remain outside current US alliances, Sudan and Somalia require international aid to rebuild infrastructure.

Competitive Advantage for Arab Countries

Ahmed Moaty, a global markets expert from Egypt, suggested that reduced US tariffs would improve Arab economies’ competitiveness. However, he pointed out the American high debt could motivate the administration to impose tariffs to protect local industries and reduce imports. Ali observed that US tariffs are interest-driven and selective, favoring allies like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea while being stringent toward BRICS members, such as China, Brazil, and South Africa. He linked tariff policies to regional geopolitics, especially the conflicts involving Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iran, which could influence US economic decisions.

Dr. Mohamed Youssef also argued that easing US-China competition could benefit the global economy, as high tariffs on Chinese goods reduce China’s growth, decreasing demand for key commodities like oil.

Ibrahim Al-Nwaibet, CEO of Saudi Arabia’s Value Capital, predicted that a Republican win could positively impact oil and interest rates, revitalizing the petrochemical and trade finance sectors.

On currency, Moaty noted the strong US dollar pressures emerging markets, especially in the Middle East. He suggested offering US Treasury bonds with higher yields to Arab countries as a counterbalance. Ali added that the dollar’s strength poses challenges for countries heavily reliant on US currency amid global liquidity shortages.

The BRICS Bloc

Ali also mentioned the high levels of US debt, explaining: “In general, the entire world is concerned about rising US debt, slowing growth rates... and is wary of the BRICS alliance, which some Arab countries hope to join. The question remains whether a cold economic war will ensue.”

Youssef also discussed the BRICS, which could play a role in attracting the new US president’s attention to countries joining the alliance. He added: “This may provide new competitive advantages for countries in the region, particularly as countries like Egypt, the UAE, and Iran recently joined BRICS, while Saudi Arabia is still evaluating the benefits of such move.”