Exclusive - Potential Structures of New Lebanese Government

Protesters re-install a cardboard fist labeled ‘Revolution’ in Martyrs’ Square after a previous one was burned down by unknown vandals in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, November 22, 2019. (AP)
Protesters re-install a cardboard fist labeled ‘Revolution’ in Martyrs’ Square after a previous one was burned down by unknown vandals in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, November 22, 2019. (AP)
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Exclusive - Potential Structures of New Lebanese Government

Protesters re-install a cardboard fist labeled ‘Revolution’ in Martyrs’ Square after a previous one was burned down by unknown vandals in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, November 22, 2019. (AP)
Protesters re-install a cardboard fist labeled ‘Revolution’ in Martyrs’ Square after a previous one was burned down by unknown vandals in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, November 22, 2019. (AP)

Nearly a month after the resignation of Saad Hariri as prime minister, Lebanese officials are still debating the appointment of his replacement and the formation of a new government, demonstrating just how out of touch they are with protesters. The longer they take to appoint a new premier, the worse socio-economic conditions become.

Already grappling with an economic crisis, Lebanon has slid even deeper into turmoil since protests erupted against the ruling elite last month, fueled by anger over the corruption of the sectarian politicians who have dominated Lebanon for years.

The protests led Hariri to quit as prime minister on October 29, toppling a coalition government that included the Hezbollah party. President Michel Aoun has yet to call for binding parliamentary consultations to name his replacement, drawing the criticism of rivals and ire of protesters.

The following are potential government scenarios that may take shape:

- Ongoing stalling with no appointed PM: Aoun’s political camp may exploit a constitutional loophole that does not bind the president to call for consultations within a specific timeframe. This will allow him the time to seek more potential candidates and to demonstrate that he was firmly in control of the state and preserving the “dignity” of the Free Patriotic Movement and its leader against the protesters. The stalling tactic allows the FPM to blame the political impasse and deteriorating economy on its rivals. It will also lower expectations and avoid appearing as though the FPM had succumbed to the protester demands. The stalling will deflate the demonstrators and create unease and exasperation that will ultimately lead forces to make do with whatever government that can ensure that life returns to “normal”.

- Hariri forms a government of independents: Such a scenario may “embarrass” the revolt because it will eliminate the sympathy of the Sunnis with the rallies should Hariri’s appointment be met with rejection. Prime ministers in Lebanon must be Sunni. The premiership was already dealt a blow when Hariri was forced to resign, while the president – a Maronite Christian – and parliament speaker – a Shiite – have only been dealt “metaphorical” blows.

Moreover, Hariri’s formation of a government of independent figures raises more questions than answers: How will it set economic policies? How will the powers react if the bank owners refuse to take on the brunt of salvaging the situation? What will Lebanon’s stance be towards regional disputes which the country was dragged into due to the policies of Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil and Hezbollah? Most importantly, will the new government be able to rid itself of clientelism and cronyism that have plagued the country for decades?

The Aoun-Hezbollah alliance still rejects a government of independents, claiming it will tighten the noose around the party. Hezbollah has offered unrealistic proposals to tackle the economic crisis, such as turning to China, while the FPM, which is headed by Bassil, has made farcical allegations that the revolt has adopted its demands of combating corruption.

- Government of independents without Hariri: This scenario meets the demand of the protesters to keep the current corrupt sectarian political class out of the new cabinet. This ultimately makes the demand the most difficult to achieve given the presence of the current balance of power. The parties in power will make it very difficult for independent figures to avoid political dictates. Moreover, the balance of power inside the cabinet itself will also be vague. What economic policies will they adopt? What about their political and sectarian views? One must also wonder what sort of international backing will such a government receive. Could it succeed in convincing it and Arab countries that it is serious about wanting to achieve real change and economic, judicial and political reform in Lebanon? This government must also be wary of Hezbollah and its international backers as they attempt to evade western sanctions and use Lebanon as a smuggling portal.

- Government of technocrat and political figures headed by Hariri: Hezbollah and its supporters have been demanding such a cabinet, saying it was the best solution to the current impasse. This government would include party representatives, excluding the Lebanese Forces and possibly Progressive Socialist Party of Walid Jumblatt. Hezbollah and its allies would take advantage of Hariri being appointed as premier. The government would also include figures that rightfully came to light or who exploited the revolt under the guise of the civil society. This new government would pick up where its predecessor left off and resume clientelism and repeat same empty promises to the international community in return for aid packages. The international community and Arab world will not support such a government, which should it be established, will further increase Lebanon’s isolation.

The materialization of such a scenario hinges on the success of attempts to tarnish the image of the revolt and claim that it will fail in achieving its goals.

- One-sided government: Hariri will not be considered to head such a cabinet, which would be formed of Hezbollah and its allies. Technically, Hezbollah and its FPM allies have enough lawmakers to form such a government. However, it would bring disaster to the economy and no one wants to be held responsible for that. It could also lead to more fragmentation among the FPM ranks and the supporters of Hezbollah and the Amal movement. As of yet, there is no reason why officials would resort to forming to such a cabinet. Threats to do so have been dismissed as political and media intimidation. The last time a one-sided government was formed was in 2011 under Najib Miqati and it was met with massive failure.



Netanyahu’s Governing Coalition Is Fracturing. Here’s What It Means for Israel and Gaza

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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Netanyahu’s Governing Coalition Is Fracturing. Here’s What It Means for Israel and Gaza

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu walks in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on the day of a vote over a possible expulsion of Ayman Odeh from parliament, in Jerusalem, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government suffered a serious blow on Tuesday when an ultra-Orthodox party announced it was bolting the coalition.

While this doesn’t immediately threaten Netanyahu’s rule, it could set in motion his government’s demise, although that could still be months away. It also could complicate efforts to halt the war in Gaza.

United Torah Judaism's two factions said they were leaving the government because of disagreements over a proposed law that would end broad exemptions for religious students from enlistment into the military.

Military service is compulsory for most Jewish Israelis, and the issue of exemptions has long divided the country. Those rifts have only widened since the start of the war in Gaza as demand for military manpower has grown and hundreds of soldiers have been killed.

The threat to the government “looks more serious than ever,” said Shuki Friedman, vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank.

Netanyahu is on trial for alleged corruption, and critics say he wants to hang on to power so that he can use his office as a bully pulpit to rally supporters and lash out against prosecutors and judges. That makes him all the more vulnerable to the whims of his coalition allies.

Here is a look at Netanyahu's political predicament and some potential scenarios:

The ultra-Orthodox are key partners

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest serving leader, has long relied on the ultra-Orthodox parties to prop up his governments.

Without UTJ, his coalition holds just 61 out of parliament’s 120 seats. That means Netanyahu will be more susceptible to pressure from other elements within his government, especially far-right parties who strongly oppose ending the war in Gaza.

The political shake up isn't likely to completely derail ceasefire talks, but it could complicate how flexible Netanyahu can be in his concessions to Hamas.

A second ultra-Orthodox party is also considering bolting the government over the draft issue. That would give Netanyahu a minority in parliament and make governing almost impossible.

The ultra-Orthodox military exemptions have divided Israel

A decades-old arrangement by Israel’s first prime minister granted hundreds of ultra-Orthodox men exemptions from compulsory Israeli service. Over the years, those exemptions ballooned into the thousands and created deep divisions in Israel.

The ultra-Orthodox say their men are serving the country by studying sacred Jewish texts and preserving centuries’ old tradition. They fear that mandatory enlistment will dilute adherents’ connection to the faith.

But most Jewish Israelis see the exemption as unfair, as well as the generous government stipends granted to many ultra-Orthodox men who study instead of work throughout adulthood. That bitterness has only worsened during nearly two years of war.

The politically powerful ultra-Orthodox parties have long had outsize influence in Israel’s fragmented political system and used that status to extract major concessions for their constituents.

But a court last year ruled Netanyahu’s government must enlist the ultra-Orthodox so long as there is no new law codifying the exemptions.

Netanyahu’s coalition has been trying to find a path forward on a new law. But his base is largely opposed to granting sweeping draft exemptions and a key lawmaker has stood in the way of giving the ultra-Orthodox a law they can get behind, prompting their exit.

The political shake up comes during Gaza ceasefire talks

The resignations don't take effect for 48 hours, so Netanyahu will likely spend the next two days seeking a compromise. But that won't be easy because the Supreme Court has said the old system of exemptions amounts to discrimination against the secular majority.

That does not mean the government will collapse.

Netanyahu's opponents cannot submit a motion to dissolve parliament until the end of the year because of procedural reasons. And with parliament's summer recess beginning later this month, the parties could use that time to find a compromise and return to the government.

Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar, from Netanyahu’s Likud party, said he was hopeful the religious party could be coaxed back to the coalition. “God willing, everything will be fine,” he said. A Likud spokesman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Once the departures become official, Netanyahu will have a razor-thin majority. The far-right parties within it could threaten to leave the coalition, further weakening him, if he gives in to too many of Hamas' demands.

Hamas wants a permanent end to the war as part of any ceasefire deal. Netanyahu's hard-line partners are open to a temporary truce, but say the war cannot end until Hamas is destroyed.

If they or any other party leave the coalition, Netanyahu will have a minority government, and that will make it almost impossible to govern and likely lead to its collapse. But he could still find ways to approve a ceasefire deal, including with support from the political opposition.

Israel may be on the path toward early elections

Netanyahu could seek to shore up his coalition by appeasing the far-right and agreeing for now to just a partial, 60-day ceasefire with Hamas, promising his governing partners that he can still resume the war once it expires.

But Netanyahu is balancing those political constraints with pressure from the Trump administration, which is pressing Israel to wrap up the war.

Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said she expects Netanyahu to work during those 60 days to shift the narrative away from the draft exemptions and the war in Gaza, toward something that could potentially give him an electoral boost – like an expansion of US-led normalization deals between Israel and Arab or Muslim countries.

Once the 60-day ceasefire is up, Netanyahu could bend to US pressure to end the war and bring home the remaining hostages in Gaza — a move most Israelis would support.

Elections are currently scheduled for October 2026. But if Netanyahu feels like he has improved his political standing, he may want to call elections before then.