As Iraqis Protest against State, Tribes Make a Comeback

Iraq's tribes have once again become one of the most powerful actors in the rural and oil-rich south. (AFP)
Iraq's tribes have once again become one of the most powerful actors in the rural and oil-rich south. (AFP)
TT
20

As Iraqis Protest against State, Tribes Make a Comeback

Iraq's tribes have once again become one of the most powerful actors in the rural and oil-rich south. (AFP)
Iraq's tribes have once again become one of the most powerful actors in the rural and oil-rich south. (AFP)

Iraqi protesters have clashed with police and torched government offices, a premier has resigned and precious blood spilt. As modern institutions collapse, a centuries-old force is making a comeback: Iraq's tribes.

With their own hierarchies, moral and justice codes, not to mention huge arms caches, tribes have once again become among the most powerful actors in Iraq's rural and oil-rich south.

They have a history of revolt, turning against the British colonizing forces in a major boost to the 1920 uprising that led to the country's independence.

A century later, revolution has hit Iraq again.

Baghdad and the Shiite-majority region have been rocked by two months of the worst unrest since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Anti-regime protesters have burned state headquarters and party offices in outrage at corruption, poor public services and Iran's perceived political interference.

It has been the perfect storm in which Iraq's tribes could reassert their leadership, said Phillip Smyth of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

In recent years, many Shiites had "become more urbanized and have loosened up their identity when it comes to being tribal," he said.

Youth, which make up 60 percent of Iraq's 40 million people, were particularly prone to look outward and shed their tribal identities.

"But the reason the tribes have a lot more strength now is that you have a very weak central government and an outside power -- the Iranians -- that is viewed as being complicit with this government," Smyth told AFP.

"These guys are looking at this and saying, let's revert back to sources of power that we know," he added.

Trusting the tribes

Nasiriyah in southern Iraq is a prime example.

Authorities dispatched commander Jamil al-Shammary late last month to snuff out widespread rallies in the city.

But tribal fighters then came out in force, cutting off roads to prevent troops from reaching Nasiriyah.

They negotiated a halt to the bloodshed, which had already cost 97 lives since protests erupted in October.

"It was the tribes that found a solution to the crisis while the politicians did nothing," said Qaysar al-Husseinawi, a leading figure in Nasiriyah's Husseinat tribe.

Their role did not stop there: the clans are also seeking justice for around 100 families pursuing legal cases against Shammary, himself a member of a powerful tribe.

Shammary's clan has excommunicated him over the crackdown.

Tribal tradition dictates that "blood money" must be paid to the victims' families -- otherwise they have the right to seek equally violent vengeance.

Tribal law

Influential clan structures have so far intervened to end bloodshed but if they choose to take up arms, many in the south expect full-blown conflict.

One police officer told AFP he'd rather desert than fight them.

"The state could never protect its own men against tribal law," he said.

Indeed, tribal tradition often trumps state law in Iraq, with accused criminals being released after tribal talks and even marital disputes resolved by mediators.

The tribes blend modern life and centuries-old tradition, with sheikhs juggling two iPhones while ordering wave after wave of sugary tea be served to their guests.

In the southernmost province of Basra, armed tribe members have often shut the streets outside national or even international oil companies to demand well-paid jobs there.

"The social bargain of any tribe is that the sheikh is a river to his people," providing them with work, justice and stability, said Nicholas Heras of the Center for a New American Security, a think-tank in Washington.

So naturally, the widespread upheaval in recent weeks over unemployment and poor services touched tribes, too.

"Tribal anger is directed at leaders in Baghdad that are viewed as having not kept their part of the social bargain," Heras told AFP.

'Bridges burned'

The British colonizing forces had a tribal revolt on their hands in the early 1900s after they arrested a tribal sheikh over a tax issue.

Nearly a century later, tribal support for the anti-government movement can also be linked to a push-back against central government authority in distant Baghdad.

But resolving the dispute won't be so simple.

"A lot of bridges have been burned," said Smyth.

"If you have people fundamentally angry at how institutions are corrupt, mismanaged and just bad, you won't just get bought off with a job," he added.

The government may seek to appease tribes with offers of more jobs or services, but there is no guarantee they could keep their support for long.

"You can never buy tribal groupings," said Smyth, pointing to their often shifting tactical allegiances.

"They're for rent."



The Election of a Trump Ally in Poland Could Alter EU and Ukraine Policies 

Karol Nawrocki, candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland's right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, flashes the victory sign in front of supporters as exit polls were announced on tv during their election night event at the Mala Warszawa Theater in Warsaw, Poland, during the second round of the presidential elections on June 1, 2025. (AFP)
Karol Nawrocki, candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland's right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, flashes the victory sign in front of supporters as exit polls were announced on tv during their election night event at the Mala Warszawa Theater in Warsaw, Poland, during the second round of the presidential elections on June 1, 2025. (AFP)
TT
20

The Election of a Trump Ally in Poland Could Alter EU and Ukraine Policies 

Karol Nawrocki, candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland's right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, flashes the victory sign in front of supporters as exit polls were announced on tv during their election night event at the Mala Warszawa Theater in Warsaw, Poland, during the second round of the presidential elections on June 1, 2025. (AFP)
Karol Nawrocki, candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland's right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, flashes the victory sign in front of supporters as exit polls were announced on tv during their election night event at the Mala Warszawa Theater in Warsaw, Poland, during the second round of the presidential elections on June 1, 2025. (AFP)

Poland has elected Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian and staunch nationalist, as its next president in a closely watched vote that signals a resurgence of right-wing populism in the heart of Europe.

Nawrocki, who is set to take office on Aug. 6, is expected to shape the country’s domestic and foreign policy in ways that could strain ties with Brussels while aligning the Central European nation of nearly 38 million people more closely with the administration of President Donald Trump in the United States.

Here are some key takeaways:

Conservative populism on the rise Nawrocki’s victory underscores the enduring appeal of nationalist rhetoric among about half of the country along the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union, and its deep social divisions.

The 42-year-old historian, who had no previous political experience, built his campaign on patriotic themes, traditional Catholic values, and a vow to defend Poland's sovereignty against the EU and larger European nations like Germany.

His win also reflects the appeal of right-wing nationalism across Europe, where concerns about migration, national sovereignty, and cultural identity have led to surging support for parties on the right — even the far right in recent times.

Far-right candidates did very well in Poland's first round of voting two weeks earlier, underlining the appeal of the nationalist and conservative views. Nawrocki picked up many of those votes.

As his supporters celebrate his win, those who voted for the defeated liberal candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, worry that it will hasten the erosion of liberal democratic norms.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk's troubles Nawrocki’s presidency presents a direct challenge to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who returned to power in late 2023 pledging to mend relations with the EU and restore judicial independence which Brussels said was eroded by Law and Justice, the party that backed Nawrocki.

But Tusk's coalition, a fragile alliance of centrists, leftists, and agrarian conservatives, has struggled to push through key promises.

Nawrocki will have the power to veto legislation, complicating Tusk’s agenda and potentially triggering political gridlock.

Ties with the Trump administration Nawrocki's election could signal a stronger relationship between Poland and the Trump administration.

Poland and the US are close allies, and there are 10,000 US troops stationed in Poland, but Tusk and his partners in the past have been critical of Trump. Nawrocki, however, has a worldview closely aligned with Trump and his Make America Great Again ethos.

Trump welcomed Nawrocki to the White House a month ago and his administration made clear in other ways that he was its preferred candidate.

A shifting focus on Ukraine While Nawrocki has voiced support for Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression, he does not back Ukrainian membership in NATO and has questioned the long-term costs of aid, particularly support for refugees.

His rhetoric has at times echoed that of Trump, for instance by accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of what he said was insufficient gratitude for Poland’s assistance. With growing public fatigue over helping Ukrainian refugees, Nawrocki’s approach could shift Poland’s posture from strong ally to conditional partner if the war drags on much longer.

Ties with the EU The election result is a setback for the EU, which had welcomed Tusk’s return in 2023 as a signal of renewed pro-European engagement.

Nawrocki and the Law and Justice party have criticized what nationalists view as EU overreach into Poland's national affairs, especially regarding judicial reforms and migration policy.

While the president does not control day-to-day diplomacy, Nawrocki’s symbolic and veto powers could frustrate Brussels’ efforts to bring Poland back into alignment with bloc standards, particularly on rule-of-law issues.

Market jitters Though an EU member, Poland has its own currency, the zloty, which weakened slightly on Monday morning, reflecting investor concerns over potential policy instability and renewed tensions with EU institutions.

Billions of euros in EU funding has been linked to judicial reforms which Tusk's government will now be unlikely to enact without presidential cooperation.