From Baghdad to Basra, the Faces of Iraq's 'October Revolution'

Sahar, a 22-year-old Iraqi engineering student, with the liquids protesters use to soothe eyes inflamed by tear gas | AFP
Sahar, a 22-year-old Iraqi engineering student, with the liquids protesters use to soothe eyes inflamed by tear gas | AFP
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From Baghdad to Basra, the Faces of Iraq's 'October Revolution'

Sahar, a 22-year-old Iraqi engineering student, with the liquids protesters use to soothe eyes inflamed by tear gas | AFP
Sahar, a 22-year-old Iraqi engineering student, with the liquids protesters use to soothe eyes inflamed by tear gas | AFP

They hail from Basra's poorest slums and Baghdad's best universities and count among their ranks artists, tribal dignitaries, and desperate young men. Iraq's "October Revolution" reflects a diverse society.

But the people hitting Iraq's streets since October 1 have one thing in common: they are frustrated and sad but immeasurably determined to see their oil-rich homeland shed government graft and sectarian politics.

In a flowing black veil, with the Iraqi flag draped over her shoulders, Um Qassem emanates steely courage as chaos rages around the 53-year-old woman: military-grade tear gas canisters and smoke bombs tear by, leaving trails of grey, orange and purple smoke in the air.

Fired by security forces near Baghdad's main protest camp of Tahrir Square, such canisters have proved lethal, cracking protesters' skulls, necks, and rib cages.

"I've got a revolutionary soul," says the 53-year-old after spending almost two consecutive months on Tahrir, in the eye of the storm.

She says she has joined every demonstration in Iraq since ex-dictator Saddam Hussein was toppled in the US-led invasion of 2003, his regime replaced by a ruling system now slammed by protesters as inefficient and corrupt.

"The politicians have villas and we've got nothing at all," says Um Qassem, who can neither read nor write.

- 'Armoured Division' -

To fight back, protesters have formed "special units," or teams of men in bicycle helmets and thick gloves who pour water onto the incoming canisters or kick them back at police.

One 21-year-old man has scraped together what he can for the dangerous job: a blue construction helmet, a first aid kit strapped to his forearm and a grubby white welding glove to toss the grenades back.

Another wore an oxygen mask and carried a makeshift shield made of part of an aluminum barrel, with an Iraqi flag emblazoned on it.

A third man looked ready for war, sporting face-paint like DC Comics character the Joker, a flak jacket and a metal grate spray-painted with the words: "Tahrir Armoured Division."

They are beloved by the protesters for putting their lives on the line to keep canisters away from the crowds trying to get on with their revolution.

- Women on the front -

But in case a projectile makes it past that first line of defense and wounds an activist, the volunteer medics come in.

Dotted around Tahrir Square are field clinics where young medical students or protesters with rudimentary first aid knowledge treat those suffocating from tear gas, hit by a rubber bullet or wounded by live fire.

Fatma, 23, wears diving goggles and a medical mask to protect herself from clouds of tear gas as she squirts bottles of serum on protesters affected by the smoke.

"It's the first time I'm protesting," says Sahar, 22, an engineering student, only her eyes visible behind a mustard scarf wrapped around her face.

"I'm not afraid," says the young Baghdad native, packing some medical equipment and bravely trekking to the frontline, where teenagers are facing off against security forces.

- Martyrs, memorialized -

Red eyes, bloody wounds and streaks of soot from burning car tires: actor Muntazar Ali recreates them all for an emotional street theatre production in his protest-hit hometown of Basra.

He played a demonstrator shot dead in a salvo of bullets and tear gas just a few hundred meters from where real violence was playing out.

The painfully realistic play brought the mostly-male audience to shoulder-shaking sobs, many of them having lost a friend or relative in weeks of bloodshed.

More than 450 people have died and nearly 20,000 have been wounded, a mounting death toll that pushed Ali Hussani, a 34-year-old tribal member, to hit the streets.

"I'm here so the police officers and soldiers who killed protesters will be judged," he says, a traditional checkered scarf carefully wrapped around his head.

- Only the beginning -

In Tahrir, there are clans and clerics, like 41-year-old Nasser al-Waili. There are Instagram stars and university professors including Adel Naji, 56.

But the protests' engine is the students less than half their age: schoolchildren defying their parents to skip class or activists bringing food to the square despite threats of kidnapping.

They are Zein Rafid and Hassan al-Tamimi, Banin Diaa and 24-year-old Taha Mushtaq.

"We want change," says Mushtaq frankly, his large eyes framed by imposing eyeglasses.

They are proud of turning protest spots into melting pots, where they can speak freely and build the society they have always dreamed of in Iraq.

"We want to make everything more beautiful," says one 20-year-old building painter, retouching chipped sidewalk paint near Tahrir.

The participation of youth, 60 percent of Iraq's 40 million people, has moved their elders.

"Those of us with white hair should also be here to support the youth," said Hassan Abu Alaa, 65, fondly known as the "sheikh of the protesters."

In Basra, 22-year-old Minatallah Mohammad paints a mural of deep blue seas and star-studded skies as part of anti-government protests -- a hopeful horizon for the many thousands of young people putting their aspirations into this "October Revolution."

Asked what he wanted out of the uprising, a demonstrator wearing a "Guy Fawkes" mask, a symbol used by anti-establishment protesters everywhere, barely paused to think.

"A future."



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”