Two Obstacles Face the Lebanese Uprising: Banks, Hezbollah

Demonstrators carry national flags and gesture during a protest targeting the government over an economic crisis in the port city of Sidon, Lebanon October 18, 2019. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
Demonstrators carry national flags and gesture during a protest targeting the government over an economic crisis in the port city of Sidon, Lebanon October 18, 2019. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
TT

Two Obstacles Face the Lebanese Uprising: Banks, Hezbollah

Demonstrators carry national flags and gesture during a protest targeting the government over an economic crisis in the port city of Sidon, Lebanon October 18, 2019. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho
Demonstrators carry national flags and gesture during a protest targeting the government over an economic crisis in the port city of Sidon, Lebanon October 18, 2019. REUTERS/Ali Hashisho

Two obstacles stand in the way of the Lebanese uprising and prevent it from achieving its goals: the banking sector and Hezbollah.

While the dynamics of obstruction and counter-revolution overlapped with these two components, each of them has a strategy to thwart and besiege the uprising.

The banking sector seems to be ignoring and refraining from making any concessions, not only to meet the demands of the street but also to respond to calls made by the governor of Banque du Liban, who was involved in maximizing the influence of bankers decades ago.

It is a strategy of laziness and deliberate indifference, waiting for the anger to fade and for the ruling political group to be able to beg some aid from unknown “philanthropists”.

On the other hand, Hezbollah is adopting an active strategy by threatening to use violence, similarly to its allies who faced the revolution in Iraq and suppressed protesters in Iran.

The policy of intimidation and threats falls within attempts to end the uprising and resume the previous course, while disregarding the fact that the Lebanese economic-political model that arose with the establishment of Greater Lebanon a hundred years ago, has been damaged, ceased to function, and cannot be repaired without a fundamental and structural change.

These two factors, represented by the banking inactivity and the armed threat, form the gallows stifling the Lebanese uprising.

Banks, by ignoring the citizens and preventing them from using their deposited funds, add an overwhelming burden to the daily life concerns of the majority of the Lebanese people.

The banks, of which the politicians constitute more than forty percent of shareholders and owners, do not want to listen to rescue plans prepared by some of the most brilliant economic experts. They reject every approach that calls them to be what they were claiming throughout the previous period, i.e. the pillar that carries the entire national economy. Instead, they are currently assuming the role of Shylock, who has no objection to seeing blood covering the streets instead of contributing, even with a small amount, to preventing the catastrophe.

Hezbollah joins this bleak scene, by providing its supporters with a myriad of conspiracy theories and accusations of betrayal against anyone who dares to call for a change in the group’s behavior. The party pretends that every change, no matter how simple and fair, is nothing more than an introduction to the elimination of the resistance for the sake of the US-Zionist project.

The encounter between the banks and the resistance seems strange. They both constitute wings of the “private sector”, which flourished at the expense of the Lebanese state and society.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.