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Lebanon Int’l Support Group Surprised that Diab Supporters are Hindering his Mission

Student protesters wave national flags as they protest against the government in front of the education ministry in Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 7, 2019. (AP)
Student protesters wave national flags as they protest against the government in front of the education ministry in Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 7, 2019. (AP)
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Lebanon Int’l Support Group Surprised that Diab Supporters are Hindering his Mission

Student protesters wave national flags as they protest against the government in front of the education ministry in Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 7, 2019. (AP)
Student protesters wave national flags as they protest against the government in front of the education ministry in Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 7, 2019. (AP)

The International Support Group for Lebanon (ISG) expressed surprise on Sunday over reports from its ambassadors to the country that obstacles have been set to hinder Prime Minister-designate Hassan Diab to form a new government by the very political parties that supported his nomination.

Those political leaders seek to hinder Diab’s mission by making demands that contradict his hope to form a cabinet that pleases the popular protests and eases the crisis of trust between them and the political class, one ambassador told Asharq Al-Awsat on Sunday.

Moreover, he said the ISG understands the positions of parliamentary blocs and deputies that refused to nominate Diab, particularly caretaker PM Saad Hariri, the head of the largest Sunni parliamentary bloc in the country.

Another ISG ambassador told Asharq Al-Awsat that France recently contacted other members of the Group and decided against abandoning the political situation in Lebanon. It instead urged the speeding up of the formation of a cabinet that can resolve the country’s social, financial and economic crisis and implement the CEDRE reforms, which would restore local, Arab and regional trust.

Earlier this month, the ISG held a meeting in Paris to help Lebanon resolve its current crisis.

The ISG had urged Lebanon to endorse a large, reliable and comprehensive policy package to implement economic reforms that restore the country’s financial stability and address long-term structural deficiencies.

A Lebanese ambassador, who attended the ISG meeting, told Asharq Al-Awsat that secret measures were taken by the Group to help Diab complete his mission, if he wishes to.

“The Group is ready to remove obstacles that delay the formation of a new cabinet by kicking off contacts between the ISG and the political team hindering Diab’s mission,” the envoy revealed.

He added that the ISG is also studying how Diab could approach the popular movement, which opposed his nomination.

“If Diab fails in his mission, it would be difficult to find another Sunni figure who accepts to form a new government,” the ambassador noted.

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Fear of Losing Seats Drives Resistance to Reforming Expat Voting Law in Lebanon

A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
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Fear of Losing Seats Drives Resistance to Reforming Expat Voting Law in Lebanon

A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 
A session of the Lebanese Parliament last Monday, in the presence of Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (Asharq Al-Awsat) 

The Lebanese Parliament’s recent tensions over electoral reforms have laid bare the political calculations of the main blocs.

Statements by Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad that “there is no level playing field in expat elections” capture why the Shiite Duo (Hezbollah and the Amal Movement), along with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), refuse to amend the current voting law. That law limits expatriate voters to strictly electing six MPs, rather than allowing them to vote in their home constituencies like residents.

This stance is rooted in the 2022 elections, when overseas ballots overwhelmingly favored opposition candidates, especially independents and reformists. For Hezbollah, Amal, and the FPM, any shift risks further eroding their parliamentary share.

Lebanon’s political forces are sharply divided: on one side are Hezbollah, Amal, and the FPM, who oppose amending Article 122, which reserves six seats for expatriates; on the other side stand the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb, the Democratic Gathering, independents, and reformist MPs, all of whom back proposals to let expatriates vote in their districts in 2026.

Tensions flared during Monday’s parliamentary session when Speaker Nabih Berri rejected efforts to place the amendment on the agenda. Researcher Mohammad Shamseddine told Asharq Al-Awsat the refusal stems from a fear that expanded expatriate voting would yield even more unfavorable results for these factions.

Shamseddine noted that about one million Lebanese abroad are eligible to vote, almost a third of the electorate. In 2022, around 141,000 expatriates cast ballots, influencing outcomes in eight districts and twelve seats, mostly favoring reformists. The number of overseas voters could rise to 250,000 in 2026, amplifying their impact.

According to Shamseddine, Hezbollah and its allies secured only around 29,000 expat votes in 2022, compared to 27,000 for the Lebanese Forces alone. This gap is expected to widen further.

For analyst Sami Nader, director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, Hezbollah’s resistance also reflects its desire to prevent military setbacks from morphing into political defeat. He argues the party is keen to cling to what influence it has left, especially since it struggles to mobilize diaspora voters as effectively as it does domestically.

Meanwhile, expatriate groups and Maronite bishops abroad have pressed Lebanon’s government to protect their right to vote in their home constituencies. Maronite Bishop Charbel Tarabay warned against any attempt to “deprive expatriates of their connection to the homeland.”

Opposition parties, including the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb, have vowed to fight what they see as an effort to sideline the diaspora. As Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea declared: “We will use every democratic and legal means to restore expatriates’ right to vote in their districts, to keep them tied to Lebanon.”