Exclusive - What Next for Syria after Soleimani’s Killing?

Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)
Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)
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Exclusive - What Next for Syria after Soleimani’s Killing?

Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)
Qassem Soleimani, left, with Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad, center, and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. (AFP)

The assassination of Iran’s Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani will leave an impact in Syria, where four armies are involved in the country’s nine-year conflict. Syria has a special personal and geopolitical interest for Iran where Soleimani personally oversaw the expansion of Tehran’s influence over the past two decades, most significantly with the eruption of its conflict in 2011.

Iran views Syria as the land link between Iraq and Lebanon. It also represents a second front against Israel after Lebanon. It also borders Jordan and Turkey and provides vital access to the Mediterranean under Russian cover.

Iran exerts its influence in Syria through its various organizations and militias. Four other militaries are present there: The American forces leading the anti-ISIS coalition. They are mainly deployed east of the Euphrates River near Arab groups recruited by Tehran and deployed at the Alboukamal base in the Deir Ezzour countryside. The other military is the Turkish one positioned in northern Syria. Israel’s shadow looms over Syria through its various strikes against Damascus and perceived Iranian and Hezbollah threats.

The most significant military presence is Russia’s. It has set up three long-term military bases in Latakia, Tartus and al-Qamishli and deployed various advanced missile systems.

Revenge

Iran has been mulling avenging Soleimani since his assassination in a US air strike near Baghdad on Friday. It has vowed revenge against American interests and Syria may be the arena where this plays out. However, it must take into consideration military factors and various players on the ground:

- East of the Euphrates: This seems like the ideal location because of the American troop deployment near Iranian groups. Both sides have since taken precautions in anticipation of any attack. Alboukamal may be another option. It is where Soleimani sought to open a land route that starts in Tehran, passes through Baghdad and Damascus and ends in Beirut. This route was severed when the Americans took over the al-Tanf base and cut the main highway between the Iraqi and Syrian capitals. Alboukamal seems more vulnerable to Iran’s revenge now that the “architect of the alternate route” has been taken out of the picture.

- Aleppo: Soleimani had visited the neighborhoods of eastern Aleppo several times after the regime recaptured the area in December. He also visited western Aleppo leading to Idlib. Pro-Iran groups did not get involved in recent battles in southeastern Idlib, vast areas of which were seized by Damascus. There is a belief that Damascus may seek to speed up efforts to capture the entire province as the world continues to reel from the fallout of Soleimani’s killing.

This move, however, depends on Wednesday’s summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The two leaders will discuss a possible truce in Idlib. Tehran may hesitate in pursuing its revenge in Idlib because it may affect understandings it had reached with Russia and Turkey during their Astana talks.

- Golan Heights: Southern Syria came into focus after Iran and Hezbollah became involved in the Syrian conflict in 2013 where they worked to set up cells and groupings. This presence came under pressure after Russia entered the fray in 2015. Israel began to carry out strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets with implicit Russian coordination. Moscow had also sponsored an agreement that called for the withdrawal of all non-Syrian forces, meaning Iranian ones, from the south and Golan in exchange for the return of regime forces to that area.

Soleimani is believed to have encouraged these groups to use to the Golan Heights to target Israel. The last such attack took place in November when Tel Aviv assassinated prominent Islamic Jihad officials in Gaza and Damascus. Tehran also tested drones that flew from central Syria to its south. The Israeli retaliation targeted Iranian and Syrian positions near Damascus and beyond.

Shadow state

In mid-2015, Soleimani visited Moscow where played a significant role in persuading Putin in directly intervening militarily in Syria to support regime forces, who at the time were only in control of ten percent of the country. Russia and Iran then entered into an uneasy “marriage of interests” where Russia deploys its air power and Iran its non-Iranian militias, overseen by its Revolutionary Guards Corps, to fight for the regime.

This balance met Putin’s demand to avoid a “second Afghanistan” in Syria and led to victories at a minimal human and material cost. It also met Iran’s ambitions in saving its strategic ally in Damascus and allowed it to infiltrate Syria’s social fabric. Russia and Iran reaped from the regime significant agreements and economic interests. Moscow signed 49-year deals to set up military bases. It also reaped oil, gas and phosphate contracts. Tehran and Damascus also signed economic, trade and military deals.

The difference between Russia and Iran was vast, however. Moscow focused on state institutions, such as the military and government. Iran, meanwhile, focused on setting up a “shadow state” through “social” and “charitable” organizations. Russia was present in the light and cities, while Iran spread in the shadows and countryside.

Soleimani was the architect of this shadow state in Syria and his absence will be felt. His assassination will bring Iran’s role in Syria into the spotlight related to whether it can seek its revenge there or highlight its presence in the war-torn country. Soleimani’s absence “liberates” decision-makers in Damascus from the past ten years. The same applies to Putin should he wish to limit Tehran’s role. The assassination weakens the role of Iran’s cells and provides an opportunity to boost state institutions.

Soleimani’s elimination may pave the way for Russia to restore Syrian-Iranian relations to the way they were away from the personal aspects. It may also pave the way for allowing Arab and western countries to rebuild Syria, support the return of refugees and push non-state forces and militias to withdraw.



Syrians in Libya Struggle to Escape ‘Exile in Limbo’

A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum
A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum
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Syrians in Libya Struggle to Escape ‘Exile in Limbo’

A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum
A photo shows young Syrian men who drowned after their boat capsized off the coast of Libya. Credit: Rights activist Tarek Lamloum

About seven months ago, a group of 25 Syrian youths, including minors, set off from Libya on an irregular migration journey toward Europe. Only four made it back alive. The rest drowned in the Mediterranean.

The tragedy, which left a deep mark on Syrian communities both in Libya and abroad, has drawn renewed attention to the large and diverse Syrian population now living in the North African country, some fleeing the war in Syria under former President Bashar al-Assad, others settled there long before.

Syria’s presence in Libya is far from monolithic. It spans businessmen, migrant laborers, families who settled during the rule of Muammar Gaddafi, and former fighters now working as mercenaries. Many also see Libya as a temporary stop on the perilous path to Europe.

For most, Libya is not the destination but a gateway. The recent drowning of 21 Syrians in the Mediterranean was not an isolated tragedy, but part of a pattern of loss that has haunted the community for years.

Reports from local and international migration watchdogs have documented repeated drownings and arrests of Syrians at sea, with many captured by Libya’s coastguard and detained in overcrowded jails.

Despite the risks, many Syrians have managed to adapt to life in Libya, integrating into local communities and participating in its economy.

Yet numerous challenges persist, particularly for undocumented workers and those living without valid residency papers. Many report facing discrimination, abuse, and difficult working conditions.

As thousands of Syrian refugees across the Middle East prepare to return home amid improving conditions and relaxed restrictions, Syrians in Libya remain stuck, unable to stay, and unable to leave.

“We’re caught in the middle,” said one Syrian resident in Tripoli. “We can’t endure much longer, but we also can’t afford to go back.”

Many Syrians in Libya say they are increasingly vulnerable to exploitation, including passport confiscation and harassment by armed groups and criminal gangs operating with impunity.

Several Syrian residents told Asharq Al-Awsat they are facing rising unemployment, frequent kidnappings, and demands for ransom by militias. For those who now wish to return to Syria, doing so has become financially prohibitive due to hefty fines for visa violations.

Steep Penalties for Overstaying

Under a revised Libyan immigration law enacted on March 14, 2024, foreigners who overstay their visas or residency permits are charged 500 Libyan dinars - around $90 - per month. The regulation adds a significant burden for many Syrians whose legal documents have expired and who lack the resources to renew them or pay the fines required to exit the country legally.

Due to the political division in Libya since 2014, no official statistics exist on the number of foreign residents. However, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) reported in 2020 that approximately 14,500 Syrian refugees and asylum seekers were living in Libya.

Ten years after arriving in Libya, Ahmed Kamal Al-Fakhouri says he is now trapped, unable to afford life in the country or the high costs of leaving it.

“They’ve imposed fines on us that are beyond reason - nearly $1,500 per person,” said Fakhouri, a restaurant worker in Tripoli, echoing a growing outcry among Syrians in Libya burdened by mounting penalties and legal uncertainties. “Sometimes, I can’t even afford a day’s meal.”

Fakhouri fled Derna after the deadly floods of August 2023 and resettled in Tripoli.

“I saw death with my own eyes,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat, describing the trauma of losing his home. “Now we’re living in misery. We want the world to hear our voice - we want to go back to our country.”

Libya hosts thousands of Syrians, including doctors, engineers, university students, and day laborers who fill the country’s markets in search of work to support their families.

Yet many say they now find themselves stuck, facing visa penalties they can’t afford and no clear path home - even as the fall of Assad’s regime renews hopes for return.

“Exit Tax” Burdens Families

While Libya’s labor ministries have issued no formal statement on the matter, members of the Syrian community say they are being charged an "exit tax" calculated based on their overstay period. No official decree has been published, but testimonies suggest the fees are acting as a de facto barrier to departure.

Following Assad’s ouster, many Syrians are reconsidering return, describing exile as a “prison,” but are deterred by the financial burden of settling overstays.

Asharq Al-Awsat reached out to both of Libya’s rival labor ministries to clarify policies affecting Syrians and the reported fines for expired documents, but received no response.

Zekeriya Saadi, another Syrian living in Tripoli, has publicly called on authorities in both eastern and western Libya to cancel the exit tax and allow those wishing to return to Syria to do so.

“In these unbearable conditions, it’s unreasonable to ask refugees to pay such high fees just to leave the country,” he said. “This tax is a major obstacle, it exceeds our capacity, especially given our financial hardships.”

Saadi said most Syrians in Libya are low-income families without stable jobs. “Many are at risk of eviction, kidnapping, or exploitation. Leaving has become a matter of survival,” he said. “How can a displaced person be treated like a tourist or a wealthy expat?”

He urged Syria’s Foreign Ministry to take a clear stance and negotiate with Libyan authorities for fee exemptions and coordinated return efforts, while also working to protect Syrians who remain in the country.

Passport Problems Bar Education

Beyond financial barriers, expired passports are also stranding Syrians in legal limbo. Many have lost access to services, and the issue is now affecting the next generation.

According to Syrian media reports, education officials in Misrata barred at least 100 Syrian children from enrolling in public schools because their parents’ passports had expired, highlighting how bureaucratic obstacles are deepening the crisis for displaced families.