IMF: Oil Price Decline Represents Key Challenge to GCC Countries

Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters
Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters
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IMF: Oil Price Decline Represents Key Challenge to GCC Countries

Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters
Oil demand would peak by around 2040, says IMF report. Reuters

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said analysis of past oil market developments revealed “a strong and sustained declining trend in the global oil demand, after accounting for income and population growth.”

Oil demand “would peak by around 2040 in our benchmark projection or much sooner in scenarios of a stronger regulatory push for environmental protection and faster improvements in energy efficiency.”

According to the IMF staff study, at the current fiscal stance, fiscal sustainability will require significant consolidation in the coming years.

Growth of global demand for natural gas is also expected to slow, the Fund said, “although it is expected to remain positive in the coming decades.”

The report said the oil market has experienced a significant turnaround in recent years due to technological advancements as well as climate change concerns. This represents a challenge to the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that accounts for over one-fifth of global oil supply.

Long-term fiscal health requires that average annual non-oil primary deficits decline from a current level of 44 percent of non-oil GDP to less than 10 percent by 2060.

“Managing the long-term fiscal transition will require wide-ranging reforms and a difficult inter-generational choice. Continued economic diversification will be important but would not suffice on its own. Countries will also need to step up their efforts to raise non-oil fiscal revenue, reduce government expenditure, and prioritize financial saving when economic returns on additional public investment are low," the IMF added.

The sudden and unexpected oil price decline of more than 50 percent during 2014-15 was among the largest in the past century, according to the report. “It amounted to a transfer of nearly USD6.5 trillion from oil-exporting to oil-importing countries, in the form of cumulative oil revenue decline, between 2014 and 2018. Many oil-exporting countries are still adjusting to the effects of this oil price decline.”

The 2014 oil price slump led to large fiscal deficits but has also served as a catalyst for significant reforms in GCC countries, according to the report.

Global oil demand will peak around 2041 at about 115 million barrels a day and gradually decline thereafter as the demand-reducing effects of improvements in energy efficiency and increased substitution away from oil begin to dominate the weakened positive impact of rising incomes and population.



Gold Prices Retreat from Record High as Investors Cash In

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Prices Retreat from Record High as Investors Cash In

A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)
A jeweller shows a gold bar at his shop in downtown Kuwait City on May 20, 2024. (Photo by YASSER AL-ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold prices pulled back from a record high on Thursday as investors booked profits following a rally driven by concerns around US President Donald Trump's latest wave of tariff policies.

Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,331.73 an ounce, as of 1120 GMT, after touching a record $3,357.40 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained nearly 3% this week.

US gold futures were steady at $3,346.30.

"Likely the reversal off fresh all-time highs can be attributed to some profit-taking on the highs. A slightly firmer tone to an otherwise weak US dollar likely took the edge off gold," said Ross Norman, an independent analyst, Reuters reported.

"Price dips are well bought into, suggesting underlying sentiment is very positive."

The dollar index recovered from near a three-year low on Thursday, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold rose 3.6% on Wednesday, driven by Trump's order to open a probe into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports, in addition to reviews into pharmaceutical and chip imports.

Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the Fed would wait for more data before changing interest rates, while also cautioning that Trump's tariff policies risked pushing inflation further from the central bank's goals.

Gold, traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, also tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment.

"The market's interpretation seems to be that gold would benefit either way," said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer.

Demand for physical gold was tepid in India this week as a blistering price rally curbed purchases, while premiums held firm in top consumer China.

"Reduced participation in the rally by traditional gold buyers might signal the move is nearer the end than the beginning. But it’s hard to see a scenario where gold would correct lower just now, other than being technically overbought and overextended," Norman said.

Spot silver dropped 1.1% to $32.39 an ounce, platinum shed 1.4% to $954.12, and palladium fell 2.5% to $949.26.