Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
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Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)

Steve Bruce sits in Rafael Benítez’s old chair in the center of the room where his predecessor once held court. The walls are still the same color, the furniture has not moved and the vending machine in one corner remains temperamental but, these days, the mood is very different.

Where Newcastle’s former manager entertained his audience with colorful off-the-record tales of, among other things, Cristiano Ronaldo, the Neapolitan Camorra and Marcelo Bielsa, Bruce has recently faced some awkward journalistic inquiries? “Have you been lucky?”, “Are you in a false position?” and “Is playing this way sustainable?” are just three sample questions from recent media debriefs.

Despite the loss against Crystal Palace on Saturday, Newcastle is a team defying gravity sitting in 14th place with 31 points.

Benítez used to delight in, repeatedly, reiterating a pet theory. “Football is one big lie,” he claimed. “In football everything is a lie.” Some Newcastle fans fear the Dalian Professional manager’s thesis extends to the Premier League table. Is the points column telling a big fat fib about their team’s capabilities and Bruce’s management? After all, judged on almost every conceivable metric – possession, touches, pass completion, goals scored, chances created, chances conceded and accurate crosses – Newcastle rank among the top tier’s bottom three teams. If anyone requires a perfect definition of “conundrum” they need only buy a ticket at St. James’ Park.

Or is this extremely harsh on Bruce who, given the limitations of inheriting a squad widely tipped as relegation certainties last summer, has done an ostensibly impressive job? His side may be low on quality, pace and creativity but sterile statistical analysis does not reflect their invariably indefatigable spirit, resilience and togetherness. Let alone the cleverness and discipline of much evidently well-coached defending.

Bruce is generally warm and affable, rarely losing his sense of humor or proportion, but the suggestion he is a lucky general represents a red line he describes as an “insult”. Yet some disappointing recent results, culminating in Saturday’s defeat and a 0-4 thumping against Arsenal a weekend earlier, have provoked fears fortune could finally be frowning and Newcastle regressing to the point where they will be “found out” and sucked into relegation waters.

“We’ve done OK,” says Bruce. “We’ve had huge injury problems but shown incredible resilience. Our results can’t be a fluke, not over 26 games, anyway. The players have resilience and pride. They’re a good set who roll up their sleeves and make sure they have a go; when you’ve got a team like that, you’ve always got a chance.”

Newcastle – seven points ahead of third-bottom West Ham – routinely command around 30% possession and have seen Martin Dubravka, their outstanding goalkeeper, make more saves than any other Premier League counterpart.

If Dubravka appears increasingly indispensable the way his teammates weather countless attacking storms also reflects Bruce’s intelligent man-management of players previously in thrall to the much respected, and trusted, Benítez. The Spaniard remains the elephant in the room, not least because he patented the safety-first, contain and counter, painting by numbers, 3-4-3 system swiftly copied by Bruce.

Following heavy early season defeats at Norwich and Leicester, the latter felt he had no option but to abandon a high-risk experiment with a back four and more aesthetically pleasing “progressive” passing.

Yet where, last season, Newcastle’s deep defending was perceived as part of a refined tactical plan, their interminable back-pedaling is now interpreted as a consequence of sheer inability to retain possession. That may be a case of invidious managerial comparisons but it is also legitimate to ask whether Bruce has taken pragmatism to the point where aspirations have dropped and players are underachieving. His advocates hint that the side’s dependence on that counterattacking default mode reflects a Benítez “brainwashing” but such semantics mask the reality that teams are only as good as their strikers.

Joelinton has lacked decent service but the £40m Brazilian center-forward – scorer of one league goal – is a definite downgrade on Salomón Rondón, his predecessor. Tellingly half Newcastle’s 24 league goals have been scored by defenders.

Considering the peculiar backdrop of Mike Ashley’s idiosyncratic ownership and frequently restrictive recruitment policies, the “beauty contest” simmering between Benítez loyalists and Bruce disciples arguably appears pointless and disrespectful.

With takeover talk receding, Bruce seems stuck with Ashley and “Rafa-ball”. Given that imperfect context, he has surely earned the right to claim the league table does not lie.

The Guardian Sport



Ruud Beats Draper in Madrid Open Final to Win his First Masters 1000 Title

04 May 2025, Spain, Madrid: Norwegian tennis player Casper Ruud celebrates winning the Madrid Open 2025 tournament at La Caja Magica. Photo: Alberto Gardin/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
04 May 2025, Spain, Madrid: Norwegian tennis player Casper Ruud celebrates winning the Madrid Open 2025 tournament at La Caja Magica. Photo: Alberto Gardin/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
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Ruud Beats Draper in Madrid Open Final to Win his First Masters 1000 Title

04 May 2025, Spain, Madrid: Norwegian tennis player Casper Ruud celebrates winning the Madrid Open 2025 tournament at La Caja Magica. Photo: Alberto Gardin/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa
04 May 2025, Spain, Madrid: Norwegian tennis player Casper Ruud celebrates winning the Madrid Open 2025 tournament at La Caja Magica. Photo: Alberto Gardin/ZUMA Press Wire/dpa

Casper Ruud became the first Norwegian to win a Masters 1000 title after beating Jack Draper 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 in the Madrid Open final on Sunday.
The former second-ranked Ruud rallied from 5-3 down in the first set and sealed the victory after capitalizing on his lone break at 2-2 in the third, The Associated Press reported.
The 26-year-old Ruud yelled and thrust both arms into the air after clinching the win on his first match point on the Caja Magica clay court.
“It’s been a long time coming,” Ruud said. “(This was) one of the really big goals I dreamed about when I was young, so it’s an incredible feeling to accomplish it. Also the way I did it today, it was a great match. I knew Jack had been playing unbelievable all year, and especially in this tournament, so I knew that if I didn’t bring my A-plus game, I was going to be whooped around the court."
The 15th-ranked Ruud will return to the top 10 thanks to his campaign in Madrid, reaching No. 7 in the rankings on Monday.
“Luckily, I played really well," Ruud said. "Jack has become such an incredible player, on any surface now ... This is a really big boost for me, and I would like to keep it going.”
The 13-time tour champion is the first Norwegian to lift a Masters 1000 trophy since the series was introduced in 1990, according to the ATP. It was Ruud’s third such final after losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo last year and to Carlo Alcaraz in Miami in 2022.
Ruud has more titles (12) on clay than any other player since the start of 2020, according to the ATP.
Draper won at Indian Wells in March. After his quarterfinal victory in Madrid, he secured a top-five debut in the rankings.
Draper said Ruud was “braver” than him in the key moments on Sunday.
“You deserve this,” he said. "You’ve obviously put in so much hard work and constantly had very good years on the tour ... This sport is brutal, but I think this loss is going to make me better, so I’ll keep trying.”
The tournament in Madrid was disrupted early last week because of a major blackout that brought Spain and Portugal to a standstill on Monday, prompting the postponement of 22 matches in total.
Ruud had needed to take a couple of painkillers during his semifinal win over Francisco Cerundolo after feeling a rib ailment during his warmup, but there were no signs of any injury on Sunday.
Draper, who like Ruud had not lost a set on his way to the final, served for the first set at 5-4 but couldn't finish it. The 23-year-old British player was visibly upset, and kept talking to himself and to his staff for a while during the changeover.
The men's side of the draw lost most of its top players early. Home-crowd favorite Carlos Alcaraz had to withdraw from the tournament because of an injury, and Novak Djokovic lost to Matteo Arnaldi in his opening match.
Top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka defeated Coco Gauff in the women's final on Saturday.