Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
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Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)

Steve Bruce sits in Rafael Benítez’s old chair in the center of the room where his predecessor once held court. The walls are still the same color, the furniture has not moved and the vending machine in one corner remains temperamental but, these days, the mood is very different.

Where Newcastle’s former manager entertained his audience with colorful off-the-record tales of, among other things, Cristiano Ronaldo, the Neapolitan Camorra and Marcelo Bielsa, Bruce has recently faced some awkward journalistic inquiries? “Have you been lucky?”, “Are you in a false position?” and “Is playing this way sustainable?” are just three sample questions from recent media debriefs.

Despite the loss against Crystal Palace on Saturday, Newcastle is a team defying gravity sitting in 14th place with 31 points.

Benítez used to delight in, repeatedly, reiterating a pet theory. “Football is one big lie,” he claimed. “In football everything is a lie.” Some Newcastle fans fear the Dalian Professional manager’s thesis extends to the Premier League table. Is the points column telling a big fat fib about their team’s capabilities and Bruce’s management? After all, judged on almost every conceivable metric – possession, touches, pass completion, goals scored, chances created, chances conceded and accurate crosses – Newcastle rank among the top tier’s bottom three teams. If anyone requires a perfect definition of “conundrum” they need only buy a ticket at St. James’ Park.

Or is this extremely harsh on Bruce who, given the limitations of inheriting a squad widely tipped as relegation certainties last summer, has done an ostensibly impressive job? His side may be low on quality, pace and creativity but sterile statistical analysis does not reflect their invariably indefatigable spirit, resilience and togetherness. Let alone the cleverness and discipline of much evidently well-coached defending.

Bruce is generally warm and affable, rarely losing his sense of humor or proportion, but the suggestion he is a lucky general represents a red line he describes as an “insult”. Yet some disappointing recent results, culminating in Saturday’s defeat and a 0-4 thumping against Arsenal a weekend earlier, have provoked fears fortune could finally be frowning and Newcastle regressing to the point where they will be “found out” and sucked into relegation waters.

“We’ve done OK,” says Bruce. “We’ve had huge injury problems but shown incredible resilience. Our results can’t be a fluke, not over 26 games, anyway. The players have resilience and pride. They’re a good set who roll up their sleeves and make sure they have a go; when you’ve got a team like that, you’ve always got a chance.”

Newcastle – seven points ahead of third-bottom West Ham – routinely command around 30% possession and have seen Martin Dubravka, their outstanding goalkeeper, make more saves than any other Premier League counterpart.

If Dubravka appears increasingly indispensable the way his teammates weather countless attacking storms also reflects Bruce’s intelligent man-management of players previously in thrall to the much respected, and trusted, Benítez. The Spaniard remains the elephant in the room, not least because he patented the safety-first, contain and counter, painting by numbers, 3-4-3 system swiftly copied by Bruce.

Following heavy early season defeats at Norwich and Leicester, the latter felt he had no option but to abandon a high-risk experiment with a back four and more aesthetically pleasing “progressive” passing.

Yet where, last season, Newcastle’s deep defending was perceived as part of a refined tactical plan, their interminable back-pedaling is now interpreted as a consequence of sheer inability to retain possession. That may be a case of invidious managerial comparisons but it is also legitimate to ask whether Bruce has taken pragmatism to the point where aspirations have dropped and players are underachieving. His advocates hint that the side’s dependence on that counterattacking default mode reflects a Benítez “brainwashing” but such semantics mask the reality that teams are only as good as their strikers.

Joelinton has lacked decent service but the £40m Brazilian center-forward – scorer of one league goal – is a definite downgrade on Salomón Rondón, his predecessor. Tellingly half Newcastle’s 24 league goals have been scored by defenders.

Considering the peculiar backdrop of Mike Ashley’s idiosyncratic ownership and frequently restrictive recruitment policies, the “beauty contest” simmering between Benítez loyalists and Bruce disciples arguably appears pointless and disrespectful.

With takeover talk receding, Bruce seems stuck with Ashley and “Rafa-ball”. Given that imperfect context, he has surely earned the right to claim the league table does not lie.

The Guardian Sport



With Mbappe and Vinicius Quiet, Diaz Comes Through for Madrid Against Atletico in Champions League 

Real Madrid's Moroccan forward #21 Brahim Diaz (R) celebrates scoring his team's second goal with teammate Real Madrid's French forward #09 Kylian Mbappe during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 first leg football match between Real Madrid CF and Club Atletico de Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, on March 4, 2025. (AFP)
Real Madrid's Moroccan forward #21 Brahim Diaz (R) celebrates scoring his team's second goal with teammate Real Madrid's French forward #09 Kylian Mbappe during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 first leg football match between Real Madrid CF and Club Atletico de Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, on March 4, 2025. (AFP)
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With Mbappe and Vinicius Quiet, Diaz Comes Through for Madrid Against Atletico in Champions League 

Real Madrid's Moroccan forward #21 Brahim Diaz (R) celebrates scoring his team's second goal with teammate Real Madrid's French forward #09 Kylian Mbappe during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 first leg football match between Real Madrid CF and Club Atletico de Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, on March 4, 2025. (AFP)
Real Madrid's Moroccan forward #21 Brahim Diaz (R) celebrates scoring his team's second goal with teammate Real Madrid's French forward #09 Kylian Mbappe during the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 first leg football match between Real Madrid CF and Club Atletico de Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu stadium in Madrid, on March 4, 2025. (AFP)

Kylian Mbappe couldn't find his stride. Vinicius Junior wasn't much of a threat. It was Brahim Diaz receiving the standing ovation from the Real Madrid fans on Tuesday.

Starting because of a suspension to Jude Bellingham, Diaz came through for Madrid in a 2-1 first-leg win over Atletico Madrid in the round of 16 of the Champions League.

The 25-year-old forward has made only a few appearances as a starter for Madrid this season, but he made this one count with a second-half winner that gave Madrid the edge going into next week's second leg.

He showed some nifty footwork in little space to clear three defenders before finding the net from inside the area in the 55th minute.

"It was a good goal but it's not over yet," Diaz said. "We still have to play the return match and give everything we have just like tonight. Nothing has been decided yet."

Diaz jumped the behind-the-goal boards to celebrate with Madrid fans who hugged him profusely, which earned him a yellow card.

"Playing here is something incredible, I always say it," Díaz said. "When you wear this shirt, you have to give it all."

He was given a standing ovation at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium when he was replaced by Endrick in the 89th.

Diaz was making his fourth Champions League start for Madrid this season, replacing Bellingham because of a yellow-card suspension.

Madrid coach Carlo Ancelotti had asked Diaz ahead of the match to try stick to Bellingham's role, but said he wouldn't mind seeing him move more forward when he saw opportunities. His stroke up front was needed as Madrid struggled with Mbappe and Vinicius having a lackluster night.

Diaz — a Morocco international who chose that nation over Spain, where he was born — had also started for Madrid in the team's 2-1 loss at Real Betis in the Spanish league last weekend, when he scored the team's lone goal.

He has 11 starts in the Spanish league this season and has six goals across all competitions.

The return match will be next Wednesday at Atletico’s Metropolitano stadium, when the hosts will try to end their Champions League slump against the city rival.

Atletico lost two finals to Madrid — in 2014 and 2016 — and was eliminated the other two times they faced off in the knockout rounds — in the 2015 quarterfinals and 2017 semifinals.

The teams had drawn 1-1 in both Spanish league matches they played this season.

Brilliant goals early

It was a superb run and a well-placed finish by Rodrygo that gave Madrid the lead. Then a nifty move and a precise shot by Julian Alvarez equalized the match for Atletico just past the half-hour mark.

Madrid needed only four minutes to get in front with Rodrygo’s goal. Right back Federico Valverde sent a perfect through ball that caught the Brazil forward in stride speeding past left back Javi Galan.

"He absolutely read my movement and put the ball in behind the man covering me," Rodrygo said. "I made a little dribble inside and then smashed it off my left."

Rodrygo quickly moved in front of the defender, then made a cut toward the inside of the area before firing a left-footed shot into the top corner.

Atletico coach Diego Simeone looked desolate on the sideline as he saw Rodrygo speed past Galán.

Atletico eventually got the equalizer in its only attempt on target in the first half. Argentina forward Alvarez, the team’s top signing this season, made it count with his own curling shot in the 32nd.

Alvarez picked up the ball on the left flank and used a neat move to get past midfielder Eduardo Camavinga before entering the area and firing a shot that crossed in front of goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois and found the far corner. The ball struck the post before hitting the net.

It was the 15th Champions League goal for Alvarez in 26 matches. His Argentina teammate Lionel Messi had 13 goals after his first 26 games in the European competition.

"They scored their goals at the right moments," Alvarez said. "At times, we had control of the match. We knew it wasn’t going to be easy. There is a one-goal difference and there are 90 minutes left in front of our fans at home."