Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
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Newcastle Defy Statistics and Show Premier League Table Can Lie

Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)
Crystal Palace scores against Newcastle on Saturday. (Reuters)

Steve Bruce sits in Rafael Benítez’s old chair in the center of the room where his predecessor once held court. The walls are still the same color, the furniture has not moved and the vending machine in one corner remains temperamental but, these days, the mood is very different.

Where Newcastle’s former manager entertained his audience with colorful off-the-record tales of, among other things, Cristiano Ronaldo, the Neapolitan Camorra and Marcelo Bielsa, Bruce has recently faced some awkward journalistic inquiries? “Have you been lucky?”, “Are you in a false position?” and “Is playing this way sustainable?” are just three sample questions from recent media debriefs.

Despite the loss against Crystal Palace on Saturday, Newcastle is a team defying gravity sitting in 14th place with 31 points.

Benítez used to delight in, repeatedly, reiterating a pet theory. “Football is one big lie,” he claimed. “In football everything is a lie.” Some Newcastle fans fear the Dalian Professional manager’s thesis extends to the Premier League table. Is the points column telling a big fat fib about their team’s capabilities and Bruce’s management? After all, judged on almost every conceivable metric – possession, touches, pass completion, goals scored, chances created, chances conceded and accurate crosses – Newcastle rank among the top tier’s bottom three teams. If anyone requires a perfect definition of “conundrum” they need only buy a ticket at St. James’ Park.

Or is this extremely harsh on Bruce who, given the limitations of inheriting a squad widely tipped as relegation certainties last summer, has done an ostensibly impressive job? His side may be low on quality, pace and creativity but sterile statistical analysis does not reflect their invariably indefatigable spirit, resilience and togetherness. Let alone the cleverness and discipline of much evidently well-coached defending.

Bruce is generally warm and affable, rarely losing his sense of humor or proportion, but the suggestion he is a lucky general represents a red line he describes as an “insult”. Yet some disappointing recent results, culminating in Saturday’s defeat and a 0-4 thumping against Arsenal a weekend earlier, have provoked fears fortune could finally be frowning and Newcastle regressing to the point where they will be “found out” and sucked into relegation waters.

“We’ve done OK,” says Bruce. “We’ve had huge injury problems but shown incredible resilience. Our results can’t be a fluke, not over 26 games, anyway. The players have resilience and pride. They’re a good set who roll up their sleeves and make sure they have a go; when you’ve got a team like that, you’ve always got a chance.”

Newcastle – seven points ahead of third-bottom West Ham – routinely command around 30% possession and have seen Martin Dubravka, their outstanding goalkeeper, make more saves than any other Premier League counterpart.

If Dubravka appears increasingly indispensable the way his teammates weather countless attacking storms also reflects Bruce’s intelligent man-management of players previously in thrall to the much respected, and trusted, Benítez. The Spaniard remains the elephant in the room, not least because he patented the safety-first, contain and counter, painting by numbers, 3-4-3 system swiftly copied by Bruce.

Following heavy early season defeats at Norwich and Leicester, the latter felt he had no option but to abandon a high-risk experiment with a back four and more aesthetically pleasing “progressive” passing.

Yet where, last season, Newcastle’s deep defending was perceived as part of a refined tactical plan, their interminable back-pedaling is now interpreted as a consequence of sheer inability to retain possession. That may be a case of invidious managerial comparisons but it is also legitimate to ask whether Bruce has taken pragmatism to the point where aspirations have dropped and players are underachieving. His advocates hint that the side’s dependence on that counterattacking default mode reflects a Benítez “brainwashing” but such semantics mask the reality that teams are only as good as their strikers.

Joelinton has lacked decent service but the £40m Brazilian center-forward – scorer of one league goal – is a definite downgrade on Salomón Rondón, his predecessor. Tellingly half Newcastle’s 24 league goals have been scored by defenders.

Considering the peculiar backdrop of Mike Ashley’s idiosyncratic ownership and frequently restrictive recruitment policies, the “beauty contest” simmering between Benítez loyalists and Bruce disciples arguably appears pointless and disrespectful.

With takeover talk receding, Bruce seems stuck with Ashley and “Rafa-ball”. Given that imperfect context, he has surely earned the right to claim the league table does not lie.

The Guardian Sport



F1 on Jeddah’s Streets - Talking Points Ahead of the Saudi Arabian GP

 McLaren driver Oscar Piastri of Australia walks through the paddock ahead of the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (AP)
McLaren driver Oscar Piastri of Australia walks through the paddock ahead of the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (AP)
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F1 on Jeddah’s Streets - Talking Points Ahead of the Saudi Arabian GP

 McLaren driver Oscar Piastri of Australia walks through the paddock ahead of the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (AP)
McLaren driver Oscar Piastri of Australia walks through the paddock ahead of the Formula One Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (AP)

This weekend's Saudi Arabian Grand Prix is the final leg of the first "triple header" of the season.

From Suzuka in Japan, to the desert of Bahrain, Formula One now pitches up on the shores of the Red Sea in Jeddah.

AFP Sport looks at five talking points ahead of the fifth round of the 24-race season:

Advantage McLaren

Oscar Piastri put in a faultless display from pole last Sunday in Sakhir to make it three wins out of four for the British marque.

That moved the cool as ice Australian to within three points of championship leader and teammate Lando Norris, who took third in Bahrain.

With Max Verstappen, only sixth, and Red Bull struggling to keep tabs on the world constructors' champions, the 2025 title could well develop into a battle between the two McLaren men.

The team has always been insistent on "papaya rules", theoretically meaning no favoritism between the pair, but that even-handed policy will be put under intense pressure if the season develops into a battle between the two gifted drivers.

Looking ahead to Sunday's race Norris commented: "It's a really fast track and we have a quick car, so we'll be aiming to finish this triple-header strongly."

Red Bull to bounce back?

Red Bull's problems in Bahrain were well documented, and they will be desperate to bounce back on one of their favorite hunting grounds, with Max Verstappen winning in Jeddah in 2022 and 2024.

"Bahrain was quite a difficult weekend for us and didn't really go our way at all. We had some issues that set us back and we still have a lot of work to do on the car to get us where we need to be," said the four-time champion.

He slipped to third in the standings, eight points behind Norris, after trailing in over half a minute behind Piastri in Sakhir.

"We have a final push with this being the third race and final weekend of the triple header so hopefully we can find more pace and bring out a performance similar to Japan (his only win of the season)," he added.

The circuit

Sunday's race presents a radically different test for car and driver than last week in Bahrain. The fastest street circuit on the calendar offers multiple chances for overtaking, in stark contrast to the most famous street circuit of them all, Monaco.

With a record 27 corners and three DRS (drag reduction system) zones it can be counted on to serve up plenty of drama, with the walled sides leaving little room for error.

All the ingredients then for a thrilling race under floodlights on Jeddah's Corniche.

Golf in the Gulf for Gasly

Alpine finally got off the ground in Bahrain, with Pierre Gasly picking up their first points of the season in seventh.

"It's great to leave Bahrain with points on the board after three challenging races at the start of the season," reflected the French driver.

He celebrated his bold show by following Rory McIlroy's emotional Masters triumph at Augusta.

"I really enjoyed staying up late to watch the end of the Masters and I'm delighted for Rory McIlroy, one of our investors, to finally secure the green jacket. Congratulations to him!"

Toto praise for Russell

George Russell will be hoping to concentrate on the job he's paid to do -- driving -- rather than as a part-time electrician. The Briton, enjoying his best ever start to a season, took second last Sunday despite a myriad of issues he had to contend with in the cockpit in the closing stages.

"It was a superb drive from him under extreme pressure," marveled Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff.

Russell's teammate Kimi Antonelli did not enjoy the rub of the green and finished out of the points for the first time in his debut season.

"It has been easy to forget that Kimi is in the very earliest stages of his F1 career given his performances so far. Bahrain will prove an important milestone in his continued development," Wolff remarked.