Saudi Crude Supply Increases as Pact to Rein In Oil Production Expires

FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
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Saudi Crude Supply Increases as Pact to Rein In Oil Production Expires

FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
FILE PHOTO: A view shows branded oil tanks at Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia October 12, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Saudi Arabia’s crude supply rose on Wednesday to a record of more than 12 million barrels per day, two industry sources said. This came a day after a producer pact to rein in oil production expired on Tuesday.

The Kingdom had said that its oil exports would be about 10 million bpd, but it gave no indication of how much crude would go into storage, amid a plunge in demand triggered by the coronavirus outbreak.

Meanwhile, US and Russian energy officials held rare talks about oil after crude prices crashed to levels last seen almost 20 years ago.

For his part, US President Donald Trump warned that oil cheaper “than water” was hurting the industry, Reuters reported.

Oil prices fell nearly 70% from January highs as lockdowns due to the coronavirus hammered demand and as producing nations flooded the market in a race for market share after a deal they engineered on supply curbs broke down.

On Tuesday, US Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette spoke with his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak about the price slump and they agreed to hold future discussions involving other major world oil producers and consumers.

The call occurred a day after Trump and Russia's president Vladimir Putin agreed in a phone conversation to have their top energy officials discuss global oil market turmoil.

Trump said on Tuesday he would join Saudi Arabia and Russia, if need be, for talks about the fall in oil prices, noting that oil slid towards $25 a barrel, after touching its lowest level in 18 years.

“There is so much oil and in some cases it’s probably less valuable than water. At some points of the world the water is much more valuable. So, we’ve never seen anything like it,” Trump said.



EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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EUROPE GAS-Prices Continue to Decline

Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Model of natural gas pipeline and Gazprom logo, July 18, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices continued to declined on Tuesday morning on milder weather forecasts for next week, high wind speeds and stable supply.

The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.61 euros at 46.65 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at 0947 GMT, according to LSEG data.

The contract for March was down 0.52 euro at 46.63 euros/MWh.

In Britain, the front-month contract fell by 2.04 pence to 116.76 pence per therm.

In north-west Europe, although another cold snap is forecast from Friday over the weekend, the latest forecasts are showing milder temperatures than yesterday from Jan. 15, according to LSEG data, Reuters reported.

Wind speeds are expected to remain quite strong today, limiting gas demand.

However, in north-west Europe, gas-for-power demand is expected 36 million cubic metres (mcm) per day higher at 78 mcm/day on the day-ahead.

"Wind speeds are expected still high today, before dropping sharply tomorrow with the cold spell arriving," said LSEG gas analyst Saku Jussila.

In Britain, Peak wind generation is forecast at around 15.1 gigawatts (GW) today and 14.7 GW tomorrow, Elexon data showed.

Analysts at Engie EnergyScan said EU net storage withdrawals have slowed due to a more comfortable spot balance but the storage gap compared to last year remains high. On 5 January, EU gas stocks were 69.94% full on average, compared to 84.96% last year.

Looking further ahead, analysts at Jefferies expect a tight year for global gas markets due to project delays and higher-than-expected demand.

"European and Asian LNG spot gas prices in 2025 could surpass those of 2024, driven by Europe's increased gas injection needs and the loss of Russian exports outpacing the expected growth in global LNG supply," they said.

"Post 2025, the market is expected to loosen with an additional 175 million tonnes of new supply coming online between 2026 and 2030, primarily from the US and Qatar," they added.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract was down 0.91 euro at 73.45 euros a metric ton.