Exclusive – Idlib Truce and Fear of Coronavirus Spreading in Syria’s Quagmire

A health worker tests an internally displaced Syrian boy as part of security measures to avoid coronavirus, in Azaz, Syria, March 11, 2020. (Reuters)
A health worker tests an internally displaced Syrian boy as part of security measures to avoid coronavirus, in Azaz, Syria, March 11, 2020. (Reuters)
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Exclusive – Idlib Truce and Fear of Coronavirus Spreading in Syria’s Quagmire

A health worker tests an internally displaced Syrian boy as part of security measures to avoid coronavirus, in Azaz, Syria, March 11, 2020. (Reuters)
A health worker tests an internally displaced Syrian boy as part of security measures to avoid coronavirus, in Azaz, Syria, March 11, 2020. (Reuters)

March marked the lowest number of casualties in Syria in nine years of war. “Only 103” civilians were killed, half in air strikes and shelling and the rest in bombings, mines and assassinations. The drop in figures, which is not low at all by the standards of other countries, to half of what it was in February can be attributed to a number of reasons. It can be due to ending the pursuit of the “military victory” as much so as the concern over the spread of the novel coronavirus in devastated Syria:

1- Russian-Turkish ceasefire
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan struck the truce in Moscow on March 5. It put on hold regime plans, with Russian support, for a widescale offensive against the northwestern Idlib province that had led to the displacement of nearly one million people since December. The deal included setting up a safe zone along the Aleppo-Latakia highway and deploying Russian-Turkish patrols. The execution was not as easy as predicted because the patrols were met with local protests, forcing Ankara to mobilize its own patrols along the international highway. Damascus vowed to retaliate by launching a military offensive, citing Ankara’s lack of commitment to pledges, a threat that did not sit well with the Kremlin.

2- Russian intervention
A week after striking the Moscow deal, Putin dispatched Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu to Damascus to deliver a message to the Syrian leadership on the need to commit to the agreement and refrain from launching military operations in Idlib. With this move, Moscow was seeking to give Ankara more time to fulfill its pledges. Moreover, Putin believes that maintaining relations with Turkey is more important than the situation in Idlib, at least at the moment. This all does not mean that he will cease exerting pressure on Erdogan.

3- UN call for a ceasefire
UN chief Antonio Guterres had called for a global ceasefire as the world comes to grips with the coronavirus outbreak. His remarks were followed by a similar plea by UN special envoy to Syria, Geir Pedersen, who urged Syrian parties to adopt a comprehensive and immediate truce so that attention can be focused on fighting the pandemic.

4- Coronavirus
Syria is more vulnerable than other countries to the outbreak given the devastation caused by years of war and the decimation of its healthcare system. Realizing the danger, local and foreign powers are prioritizing the virus fight at the moment. Some foreign forces are, however, still trying to exploit the fragile truce to boost their military positions, see the ongoing Syrian, Turkish and Iranian reinforcements on all fronts, but at the same time, they are preoccupied by their own country’s fight against the outbreak. Shoigu underlined this point during his Damascus visit when he demanded that the regime seriously and transparently handle the outbreak. It was no coincidence that his office circulated a video of him undergoing a virus test on his flight back to Moscow.

5- Disengagement
Russia and the United States are still committed to a military deal that prevents their armies from clashing in the region east of the Euphrates River, an issue noted by Pedersen during a briefing before the UN Security Council just days ago. “I appreciate the fact that arrangements between key stakeholders in the northeast, including Russia, Turkey and the United States, as well as Syrian parties, also continue to broadly hold,” he said.

6- Local forces
The regime, Idlib factions and the autonomous Kurdish administration, have imposed curfews in areas under their control and suspended fighting as a preventive measure against the coronavirus. Pedersen noted this, saying: “The Syrian government has taken increasingly significant steps to counter COVID-19. Large parts of the country are now under varying degrees of curfew, with public spaces closed and healthcare systems preparing to the extent possible. Meanwhile, the Syrian Opposition Coalition and other de facto authorities in areas outside government control have also taken steps. Syrian civil society, including women-led organizations, are also mobilizing against this threat. I note these efforts and urge the Syrian government and all de facto authorities to be transparent in their reporting on how COVID-19 is affecting all Syrians.”

Despite these efforts, Pedersen warned that the situation could boil over. “In both the northeast and northwest, there is a real risk of hostilities resuming,” he told the council. “If that happened, the pre-existing dangers to civilians would be multiplied by the pandemic and the virus would spread like wildfire, with devastating effects for the Syrian people – humanitarian, societal and economic. It could rebound across international borders.”



West Bank Palestinians Losing Hope 100 Days into Israeli Assault

Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
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West Bank Palestinians Losing Hope 100 Days into Israeli Assault

Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP
Israel's military deployed tanks in Jenin in late February - AFP

On a torn-up road near the refugee camp where she once lived, Saja Bawaqneh said she struggled to find hope 100 days after an Israeli offensive in the occupied West Bank forced her to flee.

Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been displaced in the north of the territory since Israel began a major "anti-terrorist operation" dubbed "Iron Wall" on January 21.

Bawaqneh said life was tough and uncertain since she was forced to leave Jenin refugee camp -- one of three targeted by the offensive along with Tulkarem and Nur Shams.

"We try to hold on to hope, but unfortunately, reality offers none," she told AFP.

"Nothing is clear in Jenin camp even after 100 days -- we still don't know whether we will return to our homes, or whether those homes have been damaged or destroyed."

Bawaqneh said residents were banned from entering the camp and that "no one knows... what happened inside".

Israel's military in late February deployed tanks in Jenin for the first time in the West Bank since the end of the second intifada.

In early March, it said it had expanded its offensive to more areas of the city.

The Jenin camp is a known bastion of Palestinian militancy where Israeli forces have always operated.

AFP footage this week showed power lines dangling above streets blocked with barriers made of churned up earth. Wastewater pooled in the road outside Jenin Governmental Hospital.

- 'Precarious' situation -

Farha Abu al-Hija, a member of the Popular Committee for Services in Jenin camp, said families living in the vicinity of the camp were being removed by Israeli forces "on a daily basis".

"A hundred days have passed like a hundred years for the displaced people of Jenin camp," she said.

"Their situation is dire, the conditions are harsh, and they are enduring pain unlike anything they have ever known."

Medical charity Doctors Without Borders in March denounced the "extremely precarious" situation of Palestinians displaced by the military assault, saying they were going "without proper shelter, essential services, and access to healthcare".

It said the scale of forced displacement and destruction of camps "has not been seen in decades" in the West Bank.

The United Nations says about 40,000 residents have been displaced since January 21.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has said the offensive would last several months and ordered troops to stop residents from returning.

Israeli forces put up barriers at several entrances of the Jenin camp in late April, AFP footage showed.

The Israeli offensive began two days after a truce came into effect in the Gaza Strip between the Israeli military and Gaza's Hamas.

Two months later that truce collapsed and Israel resumed its offensive in Gaza, a Palestinian territory separate from the West Bank.

Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, violence has soared in the West Bank.

Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 925 Palestinians, including militants, in the territory since then, according to the Ramallah-based health ministry.

Palestinian attacks and clashes during military raids have killed at least 33 Israelis, including soldiers, over the same period, according to official figures.