ISIS Exploits Iraq's Virus Lockdown, Political Deadlock to Resurge

An Iraqi fighter with the Popular Mobilisation Forces inspects the site of the ISIS group attack in Mukaishefah, north of Baghdad | AFP
An Iraqi fighter with the Popular Mobilisation Forces inspects the site of the ISIS group attack in Mukaishefah, north of Baghdad | AFP
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ISIS Exploits Iraq's Virus Lockdown, Political Deadlock to Resurge

An Iraqi fighter with the Popular Mobilisation Forces inspects the site of the ISIS group attack in Mukaishefah, north of Baghdad | AFP
An Iraqi fighter with the Popular Mobilisation Forces inspects the site of the ISIS group attack in Mukaishefah, north of Baghdad | AFP

Remnants of the ISIS terrorist group in Iraq are exploiting a coronavirus lockdown, coalition troop withdrawals and simmering political disputes to ramp up deadly attacks, according to analysts and intelligence officials.

The bloodiest so far was an ambush early Saturday that killed 10 Iraqi fighters north of Baghdad that observers say demonstrated a new escalation in the jihadist group's tactics but one that could still be contained.

Iraq declared ISIS defeated in late 2017 but sleeper cells have survived in remote northern and western areas, where security gaps mean the group wages occasional attacks.

They have spiked since early April as jihadists plant explosives, fire on police patrols and launch mortars and rockets at villages, local security sources told AFP.

"Combat operations have reached a level we haven't seen in a while," said Iraqi security expert Hisham al-Hashemi.

He said ISIS militants were using abandoned villages to edge towards urban areas, looking to re-establish funding mechanisms, smuggling routes, and hideouts while targeting local infrastructure and officials to cause panic.

Days before early Saturday's ambush -- which was multi-pronged and took place in Salahaddin province -- the militants claimed a suicide attack that wounded four people outside an intelligence headquarters in Kirkuk, a restive northern province.

An intelligence officer there said ISIS had tripled its attacks in Kirkuk in April compared to March.

In the rural Diyala region northeast of Baghdad, daily attacks on agricultural fields have terrified farmers and recalled memories of ISIS' steady build-up across Iraq.

Adnan Ghadban, a tribal sheikh in the city of Baquba, said two of his relatives were shot in their fields last week by ISIS militants. They both remained in a critical condition, he added.

"What's happening now is taking us back to 2014," he said, referring to the year when ISIS seized swathes of the country in a lightning offensive.

- 'Opportunistic increase' -

In part, the escalation may be linked to security units being redeployed to enforce a nationwide lockdown aimed at curbing the spread of the novel coronavirus, which has infected more than 2,000 people and killed over 90 in Iraq.

"These fighters took advantage of the fact that security forces were busy with imposing the curfew and began to move around much more freely," Ghadban told AFP.

The jihadists could also be exploiting the political deadlock in Baghdad, where top leaders are focused on tense talks over a new government, the consequences of a collapse in global oil prices and budget disputes with autonomous Kurdish authorities.

"ISIS fighters have sensors on the political situation. Every time it deteriorates, they opportunistically increase their activity," said Fadel Abu Raghif, an Iraqi analyst focused on political and security affairs.

Abu Raghif and the Kirkuk intelligence officer said a significant troop drawdown by the 7,500-strong US-led coalition had also paved the way for IS to boost attacks.

The international alliance deployed in Iraq in 2014 to help local troops defeat the jihadists by providing airstrikes, advice, surveillance, and combat support.

Seeing that the threat from ISIS had "shifted", the coalition has pulled out of five Iraqi bases in recent weeks, including in Kirkuk and ISIS' former stronghold of Mosul.

It also redeployed hundreds of trainers out of the country indefinitely, as Iraqi security forces had halted training programs to limit possible COVID-19 transmissions.

Despite years of training, the US Defense Department assessed this year that Iraqi troops were still unable to adequately collect and use intelligence in anti-IS raids on their own, or maintain operations in tough terrain without coalition help.

"Without a US troop presence in Iraq, ISIS would likely resurge," the Pentagon's inspector general wrote.

- 'Crude, elementary' -

Still, analysts and observers said the recent wave of ISIS attacks did not mean the group could once again threaten cities like it did in 2014.

"ISIS will not be able to return to its former size," said Abu Raghif, meaning the UK-sized "caliphate" that the militants declared across swathes of Iraq and Syria.

A senior official in the US-led coalition told AFP it had noted "successful low-level attacks" by ISIS in recent weeks but did not consider them a "substantial uptick".

"It's not just the number of the attacks but what's the quality of the attack? Is it complex? What equipment or tactics were used? Most of what we've seen has been crude and elementary," the official said.

Sam Heller, an independent analyst focused on militant groups, said the recent shift hardly compares to the peak of ISIS activity around the creation of the "caliphate".

Instead, they were "seemingly indicative of the group's more aggressive posture, not necessarily new and impressive capabilities," he wrote.



Sudan Arms Surge Raises Alarms Over Civilian Protection

Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)
Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)
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Sudan Arms Surge Raises Alarms Over Civilian Protection

Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)
Sudan says it destroyed 50,000 explosive remnants of war (AFP)

A surge in deadly violence has gripped the quiet northern town of al-Dabbah, exposing the growing threat posed by the rampant spread of weapons across Sudan in the absence of effective state control.

At least eight people were killed over just two days, four in tribal clashes and four others in a street fight within the town.

The latest bloodshed comes amid a broader climate of insecurity, where gunfire has become a common soundscape. In nearby Omdurman, social media users circulated graphic footage of a young man shot dead in cold blood after resisting an attempt to steal his mobile phone.

Reports of killings and injuries from arguments and brawls settled with bullets have flooded social platforms, painting a grim picture of lawlessness. Armed robbery gangs are said to roam freely, terrorizing civilians with no security forces in sight.

As Sudan’s brutal conflict enters its third year, guns have become as commonplace in towns and villages as household items. What was once settled with fists or sticks is now resolved through the barrel of a gun.

Tens of thousands of civilians have reportedly armed themselves, citing the need for self-defense amid state collapse and the disintegration of law enforcement.

Even before the war erupted, estimates suggested around 2.2 million firearms were circulating in Sudan’s conflict zones. Since then, the figure is believed to have ballooned, with unofficial estimates placing the current number at nearly six million, most acquired privately or informally.

In al-Dabbah, local authorities confirmed tribal clashes erupted between members of the Kababish and Hawaweer tribes, leaving four dead and others wounded before security forces intervened. The following day, a quarrel between vehicle drivers escalated into a gunfight, claiming four more lives.

Meanwhile, in the Omdurman district of Al-Hattana, gunmen fatally shot a man while attempting to snatch his phone, another grim scene that social media brought into public view.

Weapons have now flooded Sudan’s markets. Eyewitnesses and former security officials say that under the brief control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum, firearms were openly sold on the street like vegetables, with prices starting at just 20,000 Sudanese pounds, roughly $10.

Security experts say this gun chaos is not a sudden phenomenon but the product of years of unchecked proliferation.

Under former President Omar al-Bashir, weapons were distributed to tribal militias to fight opposing groups. With the eruption of nationwide conflict, arms have spread from the traditional battlegrounds of Darfur and Kordofan to cities in Sudan’s north, east, and center.

Legal analyst Moaz Hadra warned of the growing dangers of “random arming,” saying some groups are being trained and armed outside Sudan to destabilize the country. “Why are these groups being trained abroad instead of within Sudan’s military institutions?” he asked when speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat.

Officials Downplay Risk, Citing Self-Defense

Despite mounting violence, Sudanese security and military officials continue to downplay the threat. They argue that most weapons are held by civilians for self-protection against RSF attacks or roaming bandits. “Should a citizen wait helplessly while armed men storm his home?” one commentator asked rhetorically.

Brigadier General Fath al-Rahman al-Toum, a police spokesman, dismissed fears of total lawlessness, saying that gun crackdowns are ongoing and that firearms possession is being treated as an exceptional situation under extraordinary circumstances.

Others, like Brigadier General Saleh Abdullah, insist that once the war ends, collecting the weapons will be “very easy,” noting that most guns were distributed under strict regulations to reserve forces and can be retrieved using serial numbers registered to each piece. “The army has always managed its weapons according to clear protocols,” he said.

Major General Mujahid Ibrahim added that Sudan’s porous borders, particularly in the west, have made it easier for arms to enter the country unchecked, exacerbating the crisis. Still, military officials say weapons loaned to civilians can be recovered thanks to detailed logs and unique identifiers.

Yet, as al-Dabbah and Omdurman reel from fresh bouts of violence, the gap between official reassurance and on-the-ground chaos continues to widen. With Sudan’s civil war showing no sign of abating, the unchecked spread of guns threatens to tear apart what remains of the country’s fragile social fabric.