Lebanon Says Ready to Float Pound Only after Aid Secured

Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)
Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)
TT
20

Lebanon Says Ready to Float Pound Only after Aid Secured

Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)
Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)

Lebanon is ready to terminate a 23-year-old dollar peg and float the pound, but only after it secures billions in aid, Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said Friday.

Speaking to AFP after talks started Wednesday with the International Monetary Fund on a plan to rescue Lebanon's crisis hit economy, he also said banking sector restructuring would entail halving the number of lenders.

Foreign exchange shortages have in recent months severely strained the official rate of 1,507 to the dollar, with the pound losing well over half its black market value to trade at considerably beyond 4,000 against the greenback.

"The IMF always asks for the freeing of the pound's exchange rate," Wazni said.

But "we need to change the stabilization policy to one of a flexible exchange rate in a first stage and for the foreseeable future," he said, referring to an initial managed flotation.

"When we receive financial support from abroad, we will transition to flotation" dictated by the market, he said.

"The Lebanese government has asked for a transitional period to pass through a flexible exchange rate before we reach flotation," he added.

Wazni said the first phase would involve a gradual depreciation of the Lebanese pound against the dollar, in coordination with the central bank.

He said this was necessary because the government feared a "huge deterioration of the pound exchange rate" otherwise.

Merging banks

Lebanon, which was hit last autumn by unprecedented protests, asked the IMF for financial assistance on May 1 after laying out a much-awaited financial rescue plan.

That plan aims to drum up billions of dollars in aid, reduce the deficit, restructure a colossal debt burden and slim down an oversized banking sector.

Wazni said banking sector restructuring would be carried out "step by step", and possibilities included "merging" financial institutions.

"Lebanon counts 49 commercial banks and it is normal for that number to decrease to around half of that in the next stage," he said.

Wazni said that the IMF had however not set any political conditions for financial assistance.

"No political conditions have been set," he said.

Analysts say the economic collapse is due in part to years of political crises that have stalled decision-making and permitted a culture of waste and corruption.

A mass protest movement that erupted on October 17 -- but has since largely dwindled -- has blamed the financial crisis on politicians demonstrators say are inept and corrupt.

But people have also protested against the banks, which have since the autumn imposed informal capital controls on small depositors, capping then stopping dollar withdrawals and banning all transfers abroad.

The financial fallout of recent months has created enormous hardship. Around 45 percent of Lebanon's population now live in poverty and inflation has soared to 55 percent, according to official estimates.

Capital controls bill

The finance minister said "parliament will pass a capital controls bill in the coming weeks".

Wazni noted Lebanon was aiming to obtain around $9 billion from the IMF, on top of another $11 billion in grants and loans already pledged by international donors in 2018.

"Lebanon's quota at the IMF is about 870 million dollars, but it hopes to secure... around ten times that amount... around 9 billion dollars," he said.

He said it was in Lebanon's interest to reach an agreement with the IMF quickly.

"The sooner we wrap up the negotiations, the better for Lebanon," he said.

A deal would "give credibility to the government's program, broaden prospects for international support conferences, and ease negotiations between Lebanon and creditors", Wazni said.

Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world, with a debt burden equivalent to 170 percent of its gross domestic product.

It defaulted on a eurobond repayment for the first time ever in March.

Wazni said a "first call" with creditors was made two weeks ago, without providing any further details.



Dollar Tumbles as Investors Seek Safe Havens after US Tariffs

US Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
TT
20

Dollar Tumbles as Investors Seek Safe Havens after US Tariffs

US Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
US Dollar banknote is seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

The dollar weakened broadly on Thursday, while the euro rallied after President Donald Trump announced harsher-than-expected tariffs on US trading partners, unsettling markets as investors flocked to safe havens such as the yen and Swiss franc.

The highly anticipated tariff announcement sent shockwaves through markets, with global stocks sinking and investors scrambling to the safety of bonds as well as gold.

Trump said he would impose a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the United States and higher duties on some of the country's biggest trading partners.

The new levies ratchet up a trade war that Trump kicked off on his return to the White House, rattling markets as fears grow that a full-blown trade war could trigger a sharp global economic slowdown and fuel inflation, Reuters reported.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six others, fell 1.6% to 102.03, its lowest since early October.

The euro, the largest component in the index, gained 1.5% to a six-month high of $1.1021.

Trump has already imposed tariffs on aluminium, steel and autos, and has increased duties on all goods from China.

"Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream 'negotiation tactic', which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.

The risk-sensitive Australian dollar added 0.56% to $0.63365, while the New Zealand dollar climbed 0.9% to $0.5796.

The yen strengthened to a three-week high against the dollar and was last up 1.7% at 146.76 per dollar, while the Swiss franc touched its strongest level in five months at 0.86555 per dollar.

"Negotiations are now going to be front of mind. This is probably the other big part of why we're seeing some of these currencies outperform," said Nicholas Rees, Head Of Macro Research at Monex Europe.

"It's very difficult actually to see how other countries make concessions that would encourage the US to lift these tariffs. And I think that's a big underpriced risk."

Investors are worried that some US trading partners could retaliate with measures of their own, leading to higher prices.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen described the tariffs as a major blow to the world economy and said the 27-member bloc was prepared to respond with countermeasures if talks with Washington failed.

Worries about a global trade war have intensified since Trump stepped into the White House in January, combining with a slew of weaker-than-expected US data to stoke recession fears and undermine the dollar.

The dollar index is down more than 5.7% this year.

"These tariffs have certainly significantly increased the risks to the downside for global growth, so on balance we think that will eventually start to become more supportive again for the dollar," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

In Asia currencies, China's onshore yuan slid to its weakest level against the dollar since February 13. China's offshore yuan also hit a two-month low.

The Vietnamese dong slumped to a record low.

Elsewhere, the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar strengthened.

Canada and Mexico, the two largest US trading partners, already face 25% tariffs on many goods and will not face additional levies from Wednesday's announcement.