Lebanon Says Ready to Float Pound Only after Aid Secured

Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)
Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)
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Lebanon Says Ready to Float Pound Only after Aid Secured

Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)
Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni. (AFP)

Lebanon is ready to terminate a 23-year-old dollar peg and float the pound, but only after it secures billions in aid, Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni said Friday.

Speaking to AFP after talks started Wednesday with the International Monetary Fund on a plan to rescue Lebanon's crisis hit economy, he also said banking sector restructuring would entail halving the number of lenders.

Foreign exchange shortages have in recent months severely strained the official rate of 1,507 to the dollar, with the pound losing well over half its black market value to trade at considerably beyond 4,000 against the greenback.

"The IMF always asks for the freeing of the pound's exchange rate," Wazni said.

But "we need to change the stabilization policy to one of a flexible exchange rate in a first stage and for the foreseeable future," he said, referring to an initial managed flotation.

"When we receive financial support from abroad, we will transition to flotation" dictated by the market, he said.

"The Lebanese government has asked for a transitional period to pass through a flexible exchange rate before we reach flotation," he added.

Wazni said the first phase would involve a gradual depreciation of the Lebanese pound against the dollar, in coordination with the central bank.

He said this was necessary because the government feared a "huge deterioration of the pound exchange rate" otherwise.

Merging banks

Lebanon, which was hit last autumn by unprecedented protests, asked the IMF for financial assistance on May 1 after laying out a much-awaited financial rescue plan.

That plan aims to drum up billions of dollars in aid, reduce the deficit, restructure a colossal debt burden and slim down an oversized banking sector.

Wazni said banking sector restructuring would be carried out "step by step", and possibilities included "merging" financial institutions.

"Lebanon counts 49 commercial banks and it is normal for that number to decrease to around half of that in the next stage," he said.

Wazni said that the IMF had however not set any political conditions for financial assistance.

"No political conditions have been set," he said.

Analysts say the economic collapse is due in part to years of political crises that have stalled decision-making and permitted a culture of waste and corruption.

A mass protest movement that erupted on October 17 -- but has since largely dwindled -- has blamed the financial crisis on politicians demonstrators say are inept and corrupt.

But people have also protested against the banks, which have since the autumn imposed informal capital controls on small depositors, capping then stopping dollar withdrawals and banning all transfers abroad.

The financial fallout of recent months has created enormous hardship. Around 45 percent of Lebanon's population now live in poverty and inflation has soared to 55 percent, according to official estimates.

Capital controls bill

The finance minister said "parliament will pass a capital controls bill in the coming weeks".

Wazni noted Lebanon was aiming to obtain around $9 billion from the IMF, on top of another $11 billion in grants and loans already pledged by international donors in 2018.

"Lebanon's quota at the IMF is about 870 million dollars, but it hopes to secure... around ten times that amount... around 9 billion dollars," he said.

He said it was in Lebanon's interest to reach an agreement with the IMF quickly.

"The sooner we wrap up the negotiations, the better for Lebanon," he said.

A deal would "give credibility to the government's program, broaden prospects for international support conferences, and ease negotiations between Lebanon and creditors", Wazni said.

Lebanon is one of the most indebted countries in the world, with a debt burden equivalent to 170 percent of its gross domestic product.

It defaulted on a eurobond repayment for the first time ever in March.

Wazni said a "first call" with creditors was made two weeks ago, without providing any further details.



Trump's Greenland Threat Puts Europe Inc back in Tariff Crosshairs

A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.
A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.
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Trump's Greenland Threat Puts Europe Inc back in Tariff Crosshairs

A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.
A worker adjusts European Union and US flags at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, November 11, 2013.

Just as European companies were getting used to last year's hard-won US trade tariff deals, President Donald Trump has put them back in his ​crosshairs with an explosive threat to place levies on nations that oppose his planned takeover of Greenland.

Trump on Saturday said he would put rising tariffs from February 1 on goods imported from EU members Denmark, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland, along with Britain and Norway, until the US is allowed to buy Greenland, a step major EU states decried as blackmail.

On Sunday, European Union ambassadors reached broad agreement to intensify efforts to dissuade Trump from imposing those tariffs, while also readying a package of retaliatory measures should the duties go ahead, EU diplomats said.

The shock move has rattled through industry and sent shockwaves through markets amid fears of a return to the volatility of last year's trade war, which was only eased with tariff deals reached in the middle of the year.

"This is a very serious situation, the scale of which is unknown," Gabriel Picard, ‌chairman of the French ‌wine and spirits export lobby FEVS, told Reuters.

He said the industry had already seen a ‌20% ⁠to ​25% hit ‌to US activity in the second half of last year from previous trade measures, and new tariffs would bring a "material" impact.

But he said what was happening went far beyond sectoral issues. "It is more a matter of political contacts and political intent that must be taken to the highest level in Europe, so that Europe, once again, is united, coordinated, and if possible speaks with one voice."

STAND-OFF COULD BRING BACK LAST YEAR'S TRADE WAR

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said additional 10% import tariffs would take effect next month on goods from the listed European nations — all already subject to tariffs imposed by the US president last year of between 10% and 15%.

The bloc - which had an estimated $1.5 trillion in goods and services trade with the US in 2024 - looks set ⁠to fight back. Europe has major carmakers in Germany, drugmakers in Denmark and Ireland, and consumer and luxury goods firms from Italy to France.

EU leaders are set to discuss options at an emergency ‌summit in Brussels on Thursday, including a 93 billion euro ($107.7 billion) package of tariffs on ‍US imports that could automatically kick in on February 6 after a ‍six-month pause.

The other is the so far never used "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI), which could limit access to public tenders, investments or banking activity or restrict ‍trade in services, in which the US has a surplus with the bloc.

Analysts said the key question was how Europe responded - with a more "classic" trade war tit-for-tat tariff retaliation, or an even tougher approach.

"The most likely way forward is a return to the trade war that was put on hold in high-level US agreements with the UK and the EU in summer," said Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at Teneo in London.

COMPANIES WILL LOOK TO TRADE WITH 'LESS PROBLEMATIC NATIONS'

German submarine maker ​TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard said the Greenland threat was perhaps the jolt that Europe needed to toughen its approach and focus on developing its own joint programmes to be more independent from the US.

"It is probably necessary... to get ⁠a kick in the shin to realise that we may have to suit up differently in the future," he told Reuters.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said the new threat created "another layer" of complexity for firms grappling with an already "chaotic" US market. Firms had little capacity to soak up new tariffs, she added.

"A trade war only creates losers," said Christophe Aufrere, director general of French autos association the PFA.

An official at a French industry association that represents the country's largest firms added the Greenland issue was turning tariffs into a "tool for political pressure", and called for the region to reduce its dependency on the US market.

Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, pointed out that some EU countries - Spain, Italy and others - were not on the tariff list, which would likely see "re-routing" of trade within the EU free trade bloc to avoid the taxes.

Analysts added the new tariffs - if imposed - would likely hurt Trump. They would push up US prices and lead to front-loading of exports before the tariffs kicked in, while encouraging companies to seek new markets.

"For Europe, this is a bad geopolitical headache and a moderately significant economic problem. But it could also backfire for Trump," said Holger Schmieding, London-based chief economist at Berenberg.

"Logic ‌still points to an outcome that respects Greenland's right to self-determination, strengthens security in the Arctic for NATO as a whole, and largely avoids economic damage for Europe and the US."


IMF Upgrades Outlook for Surprisingly Resilient World Economy to 3.3% Growth this Year

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo
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IMF Upgrades Outlook for Surprisingly Resilient World Economy to 3.3% Growth this Year

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier//File Photo/File Photo

An unexpectedly sturdy world economy is likely to shrug off President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies this year, thanks partly to a surge of investment in artificial intelligence in North America and Asia, the International Monetary Fund said in a report out Monday.

The 191-nation lending organization expects that global growth will come in at 3.3% this year, same as in 2025 but up from the 3.1% it had forecast for 2026 back in October, The Associated Press reported.

The world economy "continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty,'' IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and his colleague Tobias Adrian wrote in a blog post accompanying the latest update to the fund's World Economic Outlook.

The US economy, benefiting from the strongest pace of technology investment since 2001, is forecast to expand 2.4% this year, an upgrade on the fund's October forecast and on expected 2025 growth — both 2.1%.

China — the world's second-largest economy — is forecast to see 4.5% growth, an improvement on the 4.2% the IMF had predicted October, partly because a trade truce with the United States has reduced American tariffs on Chinese exports.

India, which has supplanted China as the world's fastest-growing major economy, is expected to see growth decelerate from 7.3% last year (when it was juiced by an unexpectedly strong second half) to a still-healthy 6.4% in 2026.


France Says Still Loyal to Syria Kurds, Hails Ceasefire

Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
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France Says Still Loyal to Syria Kurds, Hails Ceasefire

Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
Syrian army personnel celebrate as government forces enter Raqqa city following the withdrawal of Syrian Democratic Forces, in Raqqa, Syria, January 18, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

France on Monday welcomed a ceasefire between the Syrian government and Kurdish-led forces and stressed it remained loyal to the latter who spearheaded the battle against the ISIS group.

"France is faithful to its allies," the foreign ministry said, urging all sides to respect the ceasefire deal, which will also see the Kurdish administration and forces integrate into the state after months of stalled negotiations.