IMF-Lebanon Talks Fettered by Disputes With Central Bank

The army said it had arrested 16 people who were carrying out “money transfers and illegal currency exchange transactions, using licensed companies and offices as a front. (File/AFP)
The army said it had arrested 16 people who were carrying out “money transfers and illegal currency exchange transactions, using licensed companies and offices as a front. (File/AFP)
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IMF-Lebanon Talks Fettered by Disputes With Central Bank

The army said it had arrested 16 people who were carrying out “money transfers and illegal currency exchange transactions, using licensed companies and offices as a front. (File/AFP)
The army said it had arrested 16 people who were carrying out “money transfers and illegal currency exchange transactions, using licensed companies and offices as a front. (File/AFP)

The first round of talks between experts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Lebanese officials has unveiled that the public dispute between Prime Minister Hassan Diab and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh left a bad impression on the international organization, according to observers and businessmen.

The IMF has never witnessed similar divergences between the executive and monetary authorities throughout its cooperation with many countries.

“There are Lebanese qualitative gaps that would negatively affect talks with the qualified international team,” observers said.

Those gaps emanate from the dispute between Diab’s government and Salameh over a government reform plan, proposed two weeks ago to save the country from its grave financial and economic crisis.

During current talks with the IMF, Lebanon seeks $10 billion in loans, in addition to rapid aid of $900 million dollars, according to what Lebanese Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni told Asharq Al-Awsat this week.

The newspaper learned that IMF officials have expanded the specter of their contacts to include current and former Lebanese officials in crucial sectors such as the monetary authority, the banking sector, and some independent experts.

The IMF officials are particularly inquiring about the liberalization of the Lebanese lira exchange rate, in addition to the proposed mechanisms for the restructuring of the Central bank and the banking apparatus.

The financial institution is also testing the State’s seriousness in confronting smuggling via illegal crossings.

Observers noticed that the Lebanese team, headed by Wazni, was not equally convinced of the government’s economic plan.

Salameh announced he would not personally attend talks with the IMF, but delegated a team to represent him. Meanwhile, the Banking Association strongly rejected the government’s plan and said it was currently preparing an alternative, which it would send later to the IMF.

The observers also noticed a downsized representation of the banking sector during talks with the IMF.

They said the government’s attempts to contain the sector were materialized with recent official statements uncovering plans to decrease the number of commercial banks to around half.

Chairman of the Banking Control Commission of Lebanon (BCCL) Samir Hammoud, (whose legal term ended weeks ago) told Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanon should have a national comprehensive vision to solve the current crisis, including a clear approach on the financial, economic, and banking situation.

“This plan should not seek to cut down from depositors’ accounts, but to work on the continuity of financing the debilitated economy,” Hammoud said.



The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
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The Future of Revenues in Syria: Challenges and Opportunities for the Interim Government

A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)
A money changer conducts a transaction in US dollars and Syrian pounds for a client on a street in Damascus (AFP)

Syria faces significant challenges as discussions intensify about the post-Bashar al-Assad era, particularly in securing the necessary revenues for the Syrian interim government to meet the country’s needs and ensure its sustainability. The widespread destruction of the economy and infrastructure poses a dual challenge: rebuilding the nation while stimulating economic activity and ensuring sufficient financial resources for governance.

Currently, the interim government relies heavily on international and regional support during the transitional phase. Donor countries are expected to provide financial and technical assistance to help rebuild institutions and alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people.

However, as the country transitions, external support alone will not suffice. The government must identify sustainable revenue sources, such as managing natural resources, imposing taxes, and encouraging foreign investments.

Opportunities from the Syrian Diaspora

The Syrian diaspora is seen as a significant economic resource, contributing through remittances or involvement in reconstruction projects. However, realizing these opportunities requires the establishment of strong, transparent institutions, effective resource management, and a clear strategic plan to rebuild trust with both local and international communities.

Securing revenues for the interim government is not merely a financial challenge but also a test of its ability to lead Syria toward stability and prosperity.

Securing Economic Resources

Nasser Zuhair, head of the Economic and Diplomatic Affairs Unit at the European Policy Organization, stated that the interim government, currently led by Mohammed al-Bashir, may replicate its revenue-generating models from Idlib. Resources in Idlib were drawn from temporary measures that are insufficient for sustaining a national economy like Syria’s.

In an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Zuhair explained that these resources included taxation, fuel trade with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-controlled areas, international aid for displaced persons in Idlib, remittances from the Syrian diaspora, and cross-border trade facilitated by Turkiye.

“The interim government believes that sanctions relief is a matter of months, after which it can begin to establish a sustainable economy. For now, it will rely on the same resources and strategies used in Idlib and other controlled areas,” Zuhair added.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the former regime’s reliance on illicit revenues, such as drug trafficking and Captagon production—estimated to account for 25% of government revenues—the interim government has several potential avenues for generating revenue.

International Aid

Zuhair emphasized that cross-border humanitarian aid indirectly supports local economies. “The current government understands that international and regional aid will be substantial in the coming period, particularly for refugee repatriation and infrastructure development,” he noted.

He added that efforts to secure funding from the Brussels Conference, which allocates about $7 billion annually to support Syria, will be critical. Strengthening ties with regional and European countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Germany, and the UK, is also a priority. However, securing such aid depends on establishing a political framework where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) does not dominate governance.

He further noted that international and regional support will likely remain a key revenue source for the interim government, including humanitarian and developmental aid from organizations such as the United Nations and the World Bank.

Taxes and Tariffs

Zuhair highlighted taxes and tariffs as essential components of the government’s revenue strategy. This includes taxing local economic activities, customs duties on cross-border trade, and fair taxes on merchants and industrialists in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo.

“The government can also impose income, corporate, and property taxes while improving border management to maximize revenue from customs and tariffs,” he added.

Agriculture and Natural Resources

Syria’s vast and fertile agricultural lands present an opportunity for revenue generation, Zuhair underlined, explaining that taxes on agricultural products could contribute to state income. However, this sector faces logistical challenges and high production costs. By directing the agricultural sector toward self-sufficiency, the government could reduce dependence on imports and create surplus revenue, he remarked.

Additionally, managing natural resources such as oil and gas could provide a significant revenue stream if the government gains control over resource-rich areas like northeastern Syria, the official noted.

Reconstruction

Reconstruction presents another potential revenue source. International companies could be encouraged to invest in rebuilding efforts in exchange for fees or taxes. Public-private partnerships with local and foreign firms in sectors such as infrastructure and housing could also generate significant funds.

Remittances from the Diaspora

Zuhair stressed the importance of remittances from Syrians abroad, estimating that these transfers could reach $2 billion annually by 2025. Encouraging the diaspora to send funds to support family members and rebuild properties will be a key priority for the government.

Domestic Investments

The interim government has shown its ability to attract domestic investments in real estate, industry, commerce, and agriculture, despite international sanctions. According to Zuhair, leveraging Türkiye as an international gateway, the government could expand this model across Syria, taking advantage of the challenging economic conditions left by the previous regime to draw reasonable investments in its first year.

Tourism and Small Businesses

Revitalizing the tourism sector could directly contribute to revenue, he added, noting that restoring historical and cultural sites, once security and stability are achieved, will attract visitors and generate income.

In addition, encouraging small and medium-sized enterprises will help revive the economy and create jobs, Zuhair emphasized, pointing that supporting manufacturing industries could provide a sustainable revenue stream.