OPEC Points to 2020 Oil Surplus even as Demand Gradually Recovers

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
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OPEC Points to 2020 Oil Surplus even as Demand Gradually Recovers

FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A general view of the OPEC building and logo in Vienna , November 7, 2013. REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger/File Photo

The world faces an oil surplus in 2020 even as demand gradually recovers and record supply cuts by producers help rebalance the market, according to OPEC forecasts on Wednesday.

The latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries potentially increases pressure on the group and its allies, known as OPEC+, to curb more supply.

OPEC said demand would decline by 6.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second half of 2020, less than the drop of 11.9 million bpd in the first six months of the year, with a "gradual recovery" seen until the end of the year.

Oil prices have collapsed as lockdowns to limit the spread of the coronavirus have curtailed travel and economic activity. While some places in Europe and Asia have eased restrictions, concern over new outbreaks has kept a lid on prices.

To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC+ - which includes Russia - agreed to a record supply cut that started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said they would pump less.

OPEC said these curbs were already helping.

"The oil market was strongly supported by a reduction of the global crude oil surplus, thanks mainly to the historic voluntary production adjustment agreement," Reuters quoted it as saying.

Despite the cuts made already, OPEC still pointed to a surplus in the market this year, in part because it now expects supply from outside the group to be about 300,000 bpd higher than previously thought.

A technical committee of OPEC+ and a ministerial panel met Wednesday and are expected to hold talks Thursday to review the supply cut's impact and seek better compliance from those yet to deliver their share in full, such as Iraq and Nigeria.

Brent crude was trading above $40 a barrel after the report's release and is up from a 21-year low below $16 reached in April.

In the report, OPEC did not further reduce its forecast for world oil demand in 2020, after steep cuts in earlier months. Still, downside risks remain for consumption in top consumer the United States, according to the group.

The supply pact agreed in April involves OPEC+ cutting output by 9.7 million bpd in May and June. OPEC+ agreed on June 6 to extend the cut for another month, a decision OPEC said the market had taken well.

In its report, OPEC said it had cut supply in May by 6.3 million bpd to 24.2 million bpd. That amounts to 84% compliance with the pledges, according to a Reuters calculation – higher than some estimates.

Overall OPEC+ compliance stood at 87% in May, a source said on Wednesday.

OPEC estimated the demand for its crude this year at 23.6 million bpd, down 700,000 bpd from last month, suggesting it needs to cut about 600,000 bpd from May's rate to avoid a surplus.



Projects, Agreements Exceeding $48 Billion Expected at Cityscape Global in Riyadh

National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Projects, Agreements Exceeding $48 Billion Expected at Cityscape Global in Riyadh

National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
National Housing Company (NHC) CEO Mohammed Al-Buty speaks at Cityscape Global. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia’s real estate sector is experiencing a surge in growth, marked by record-breaking deals expected at the second annual Cityscape Global 2024, the world’s largest real estate exhibition.

Deals at this year’s event, held in Riyadh, are anticipated to exceed SAR 180 billion ($48 billion), representing an increase of over 50% compared to the previous edition.

According to Majid Al-Hogail, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing, real estate deals in the Kingdom have reached SAR 630 billion ($168 billion) since the beginning of the year, supporting national economic growth and diversification.

Cityscape, held at the Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Center, showcases Saudi Arabia’s ongoing real estate development and serves as a central platform for innovation and investment. The event is supported by the Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing, the General Real Estate Authority, and the Housing Program, a key initiative under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

The number of participants doubled from last year, with over 100 local and 69 international developers taking part, underscoring the strength and global confidence in Saudi Arabia’s real estate market.

Al-Hogail highlighted that Saudi banks have significantly increased real estate financing from SAR 200 billion ($53.3 billion) in 2018 to SAR 800 billion ($213.3 billion) this year, with the market projected to reach SAR 1.3 trillion ($346 billion) by 2030. The Saudi Real Estate Refinance Company has also supported this growth, providing over SAR 37 billion ($9.8 billion) in mortgage refinancing.

In line with this expansion, the Kingdom has seen a rise in homeownership rates, which reached 63.7% at the end of 2023. Over 20 new regulatory measures have been implemented to streamline the market, and more than 60,000 real estate broker licenses have been issued.

Al-Hogail noted that the real estate sector plays a critical role, impacting over 60 economic sectors and positioning Saudi Arabia as a global hub for urban development and sustainable cities of the future.

Supporting these objectives, Cityscape hosted 400 exhibitors from 50 countries and over 100 investors, with an agenda aligned with Vision 2030’s pillars: increasing supply, expanding financing, modernizing regulations, and adopting advanced technology.

The National Housing Company (NHC), represented by CEO Mohammed Al-Buty, unveiled a new brand identity at the event, symbolizing its commitment to creating integrated urban communities that elevate quality of life.

Al-Buty emphasized the company’s role in advancing infrastructure that aligns with Vision 2030’s sustainable development goals, aiming to build vibrant, livable environments with easy access to essential services, green spaces, and commercial areas.

Several significant agreements were also announced. The NHC signed deals worth over SAR 142 billion, while Retal pledged more than SAR 14 billion for four projects in Riyadh and Al Khobar. Mohammed Al-Habib Company revealed its “Enar” residential-commercial project, valued at SAR 5 billion, while Tilal committed SAR 6 billion to a mixed-use project in Al Khobar.

Caden announced a SAR 10 billion project to develop over one million square meters, and Mountain View earmarked SAR 1.2 billion to build 500 villas. Diriyah Gate Company also invested SAR 1 billion for luxury residential and hotel suites, in partnership with brands such as Ritz-Carlton and Raffles.

With the theme “Future of Living,” this year’s Cityscape Global highlights Saudi Arabia’s dynamic real estate sector and the nation’s commitment to transforming urban landscapes and meeting future lifestyle needs.