Tunisia's Economy Expected to Shrink 7% in 2020

FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
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Tunisia's Economy Expected to Shrink 7% in 2020

FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi
FILE PHOTO: A vendor sells lemons at a market in downtown Tunis, Tunisia November 20, 2019. Picture taken November 20, 2019. REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi

Tunisia’s Minister of Investment and International Cooperation expected that his country’s economy would shrink by around 7 percent this year, noting that the number of those unemployed would rise by about 275,000, quoting a government study conducted in partnership with the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

This month, Tunisia ended all restrictions on travel and movement aimed at containing the spread of the new coronavirus, while the economic sectors returned to work normally. Land, sea and air borders are set to reopen end of June.

But the vital tourism sector, which accounts for about 10 percent of the GDP, was hit hardly by the crisis.

Minister Salim el-Ezaby said that the study expects economy to shrink by 4.4 percent, but added that deflation may reach 6 or 7 percent in the supplementary finance law, which the government will present to Parliament within weeks.

The tourism industry fell by about 50 percent in the first five months of this year. The study, which was presented at a press conference, indicated that the unemployment rate will increase to 21.6%, compared to 15% recorded at the beginning of this year.

According to the Tunisian Institute of Statistics, the total value of trade exchanges amounted to about 14.921 billion dinars of exports, compared to 21.021 billion Tunisian dinars of imports.

The institute revealed the decline in foreign commercial exchanges during the past month, while exports witnessed a decline of 37.1 percent during the month of May.



WTO Slashes 2025 Trade Growth Forecast

Chinese made cars, including Volvo and other brands, are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on April 16, 2025, as they wait to be loaded onto ships for export. (Photo by AFP)
Chinese made cars, including Volvo and other brands, are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on April 16, 2025, as they wait to be loaded onto ships for export. (Photo by AFP)
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WTO Slashes 2025 Trade Growth Forecast

Chinese made cars, including Volvo and other brands, are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on April 16, 2025, as they wait to be loaded onto ships for export. (Photo by AFP)
Chinese made cars, including Volvo and other brands, are seen at the port in Nanjing, in China's eastern Jiangsu province on April 16, 2025, as they wait to be loaded onto ships for export. (Photo by AFP)

The World Trade Organization sharply cut its forecast for global merchandise trade from solid growth to a decline on Wednesday, saying further US tariffs and spillover effects could lead to the heaviest slump since the height of the COVID pandemic.
The WTO said it expected trade in goods to fall by 0.2% this year, down from its expectation in October of 3.0% expansion. It said its new estimate was based on measures in place at the start of this week, Reuters reported.
US President Donald Trump imposed extra duties on steel and car imports as well as more sweeping global tariffs before unexpectedly pausing higher duties on a dozen economies. His trade war with China has also intensified with tit-for-tat exchanges pushing levies on each other's imports beyond 100%.
The WTO said that, if Trump reintroduced the full rates of his broader tariffs that would reduce goods trade growth by 0.6 percentage points, with another 0.8 point cut due to spillover effects beyond US-linked trade.
Taken together, this would lead to a 1.5% decline, the steepest drop since 2020.
"The unprecedented nature of the recent trade policy shifts means that predictions should be interpreted with more caution than usual," said the WTO, which is also forecasting a modest recovery of 2.5% in 2026.
Earlier on Wednesday, the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) agency said global economic growth could slow to 2.3% as trade tensions and uncertainty drive a recessionary trend.
The Geneva-based WTO said disruption of US-China trade was expected to increase Chinese merchandise exports across all regions outside North America by between 4% and 9%.
Other countries would have opportunities to fill the gap in the United States in sectors such as textiles, clothing and electrical equipment.
Services trade, though not subject to tariffs, would also take a hit, the WTO said, by weakening demand related to goods trade such as transport and logistics. Broader uncertainty could dampen spending on travel and investment-related services.
The WTO said it expected commercial services trade to grow by 4.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, well below baseline projections of 5.1% and 4.8%.
The expected downturn follows a strong 2024, when the volume of world merchandise trade grew by 2.9% and commercial services trade expanded by 6.8%.