IMF Downgrades Outlook for Global Economy Amid Pandemic

In this March 19, 2020 file photo, a deserted construction site is pictured in Dardilly, near Lyon, central France. The virus crisis has triggered the worst global recession in nearly a century -- and the pain is not over yet even if there is no second wave of infections, an international economic report warned Wednesday. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani, File)
In this March 19, 2020 file photo, a deserted construction site is pictured in Dardilly, near Lyon, central France. The virus crisis has triggered the worst global recession in nearly a century -- and the pain is not over yet even if there is no second wave of infections, an international economic report warned Wednesday. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani, File)
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IMF Downgrades Outlook for Global Economy Amid Pandemic

In this March 19, 2020 file photo, a deserted construction site is pictured in Dardilly, near Lyon, central France. The virus crisis has triggered the worst global recession in nearly a century -- and the pain is not over yet even if there is no second wave of infections, an international economic report warned Wednesday. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani, File)
In this March 19, 2020 file photo, a deserted construction site is pictured in Dardilly, near Lyon, central France. The virus crisis has triggered the worst global recession in nearly a century -- and the pain is not over yet even if there is no second wave of infections, an international economic report warned Wednesday. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani, File)

The International Monetary Fund has sharply lowered its forecast for global growth this year because it envisions far more severe economic damage from the coronavirus than it did just two months ago.

The IMF predicts that the global economy will shrink 4.9% this year, significantly worse than the 3% drop it had estimated in its previous report in April. It would be the worst annual contraction since immediately after World War II.

For the United States, the IMF predicts that the nation's gross domestic product - the value of all goods and services produced in the United States - will plummet 8% this year, even more than its April estimate of a 5.9% drop. This, too, would be the worst such annual decline since the US economy demobilized in the aftermath of World War II.

The IMF issued its bleaker forecasts Wednesday in an update to the World Economic Outlook it released in April. The update is generally in line with other recent major forecasts. Earlier this month, for example, the World Bank projected that the global economy would shrink 5.2% this year.

The IMF noted that the pandemic was disproportionately hurting low-income households, "imperiling the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since 1990."

In recent years, the proportion of the world´s population living in extreme poverty - equivalent to less than $1.90 a day - had fallen below 10% from more than 35% in 1990. But the IMF said the COVID-19 crisis threatens to reverse this progress. It forecast that more than 90% of developing and emerging market economies will suffer declines in per-capita income growth this year.

For 2021, the IMF envisions a rebound in growth, so long as the viral pandemic doesn´t erupt in a second major wave. It expects the global economy to expand 5.4% next year, 0.4 percentage point less than it did in April.

For the United States, the IMF predicts growth of 4.5% next year, 0.2 percentage point weaker than in its April forecast. But that gain wouldn´t be enough to restore the US economy to its level before the pandemic struck. The association of economists who officially date recessions in the United States determined that the economy entered a recession in February, with tens of millions of people thrown out of work from the shutdowns that were imposed to contain the virus.

The US government has estimated that the nation´s GDP shrank at a 5% annual rate in the January-March quarter, and it is widely expected to plunge at a 30% rate or worse in the current April-June period.

In its updated forecast, the IMF downgraded growth for all major countries. For the 19 European nations that use the euro currency, it envisions a decline in growth this year of 10.7% - more than the 8% drop it predicted in April - followed by a rebound to growth of 6% in 2021.

In China, the world´s second-largest economy, growth this year is projected at 1%. India´s economy is expected to shrink 4.5% after a longer period of lockdown and a slower recovery than was envisioned in April.

In Latin America, where most countries are still struggling to contain infections, the two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, are projected to shrink 9.1% and 10.5%, respectively.

A steep fall in oil prices has triggered deep recessions in oil-producing countries, with the Russian economy expected to contract 6.6% this year and Saudi Arabia´s 6.8%.

The IMF cautioned that downside risks to the forecast remain significant. It said the virus could surge back, forcing renewed shutdowns and possibly renewed turmoil in financial markets similar to what occurred in January through March. The IMF warned that such financial turbulence could tip vulnerable countries into debt crises that would further hamper efforts to recover.

Its updated forecast included a downside scenario that envisions a second major outbreak occurring in early 2021. Under this scenario, the global economy would contract again next year by 4.9%, it estimates.



S&P Upgrades Italy in Surprise Boost for PM Meloni

 Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits for the arrival of Queen Rania of Jordan at Villa Doria Pamphili in Rome, Italy, 09 April 2025. (EPA)
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits for the arrival of Queen Rania of Jordan at Villa Doria Pamphili in Rome, Italy, 09 April 2025. (EPA)
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S&P Upgrades Italy in Surprise Boost for PM Meloni

 Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits for the arrival of Queen Rania of Jordan at Villa Doria Pamphili in Rome, Italy, 09 April 2025. (EPA)
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits for the arrival of Queen Rania of Jordan at Villa Doria Pamphili in Rome, Italy, 09 April 2025. (EPA)

Credit ratings agency S&P Global upgraded Italy on Friday in a surprise move just days after Rome halved its economic growth forecast amid global market turmoil and said its huge public debt would rise this year and next.

S&P Global raised Italy's sovereign debt rating to BBB+ from BBB, citing its falling budget deficit, resilient exports and high domestic savings rate, and confidence that the European Central Bank will keep any inflationary pressures in check.

It said the new rating carried a stable outlook.

"The upgrade reflects Italy's improved economic, external, and monetary buffers amid rising global headwinds, and the gradual progress it has made in stabilizing public finances since the (COVID-19) pandemic's onset," S&P Global said.

Earlier this month Fitch affirmed its BBB rating with a positive outlook, while Moody's rates Italy Baa3 with a stable outlook.

S&P's upgrade is a boost for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ahead of a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday expected to focus on US trade tariffs which have hit financial markets worldwide and clouded economic prospects.

S&P Global noted that Italy's net external creditor position had strengthened over the last five years to around 15% of gross domestic product, compared with close to balance just before the pandemic.

"S&P's judgment rewards the seriousness of the Italian government's approach to budget policy," said Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti. "In the general uncertain climate, prudence and responsibility will continue to be our course of action."

The agency had made no change to Italy's rating or outlook since July 2022, when it revised the outlook to stable from positive following the collapse of the government of former Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

STAGNANT ECONOMY

On Wednesday, Italy committed to keeping its budget deficit in check even as it slashed its economic growth forecasts against a backdrop of mounting uncertainty connected to the US trade tariffs.

Yet even before Trump's tariff announcements, the euro zone's third largest economy has posted virtually no growth since mid-2024.

Italian GDP edged up by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year from the previous three months after stagnating in the third quarter. No pick-up is expected in the near term.

In its multi-year economic framework issued on Wednesday, the government cut its forecast for 2025 GDP growth to 0.6% from a projection of 1.2% made in September, and lowered its 2026 forecast to 0.8% from 1.1%.

The Treasury confirmed its previous 2025 budget deficit estimate at 3.3% of national output and also confirmed its goal of bringing the fiscal gap below the European Union's 3% of GDP ceiling in 2026, maintaining a 2.8% target.

However, it said the public debt - the second highest in the euro zone after Greece's - would climb from 135.3% of GDP last year to 137.6% by 2026, before edging down marginally the following year.

S&P also forecast Italy's GDP growth at 0.6% this year, in line with Meloni's government, and said the country's rising debt would not stabilize until 2028.

Nonetheless, it said Trump's latest decision to suspend previously announced 20% tariffs on European Union goods for three months, and to impose a milder 10%, meant the hit to Italy's economy would be "manageable".