Exclusive: Kais Saied Unveils from Paris Tunisia’s Position on Libya

French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Tunisian President Kais Saied for bilateral talks at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Monday, June 22, 2020. (AP-Michel Euler)
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Tunisian President Kais Saied for bilateral talks at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Monday, June 22, 2020. (AP-Michel Euler)
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Exclusive: Kais Saied Unveils from Paris Tunisia’s Position on Libya

French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Tunisian President Kais Saied for bilateral talks at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Monday, June 22, 2020. (AP-Michel Euler)
French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes Tunisian President Kais Saied for bilateral talks at the Elysee Palace in Paris, Monday, June 22, 2020. (AP-Michel Euler)

Eight months after Kais Saied entered the Carthage presidential palace, the Tunisian president landed in Paris at the head of an official delegation, respecting a tradition followed by his predecessors, who made France their first international destination, after a symbolic visit to neighboring Algeria.

Reactions diverged over the results of the first summit between Saied and French President Emmanuel Macron, and their statements on Libya and the colonial era.

Minister of Finance Nizar Yaish and Foreign Minister Noureddine al-Rai, who accompanied Saied on his visit, emphasized the economic results of the talks, including a new French loan to Tunisia worth 350 million euros (400 million dollars).

Tunisian expert in international politics Faraj Maatouq valued a bilateral agreement aimed at “boosting the economic, financial and technological partnership between the two countries, which includes the establishment of a rapid railway line to link the northernmost part of Tunisia with its south.”

However, some politicians and economic and financial experts in Tunisia, played down the outcome of the meetings between the two leaders.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Academic Jannat bin Abdullah, said: “French President Macron clearly emphasized in his joint press conference with Saied at the Elysee Palace that the new loan represents an installment of the five-year loan agreed by the authorities of the two countries in 2017. Its value is about 1.7 billion euros, or about 2 billion dollars.”

Reda El-Shiknadali, the former director general of the Center for Economic and Social Studies and Research (CERES), said that Paris did not pledge new financial aid to Tunisia, which is experiencing structural and circumstantial difficulties.

He criticized “the promotion of old agreements concluded in 2017 as if they were a new initiative.”

But what’s more important about the first Tunisian-French summit is rather its political and diplomatic aspect, according to the opponents of Ennahda Movement, including the head of the Reform Bloc in the Tunisian parliament, Hassouna Nasfi.

The latter praised Saied’s statements that rejected the Turkish intervention in Libya and considered that the legitimacy of the Tripoli government was “temporary and needed improvement by holding new elections.”

But the spokesman for Ennahda, criticized the remarks made by the Tunisian president in France, which he said “touched on intra-Tunisian differences outside the homeland.”

On the other hand, a “cold war” was launched through the official and public social media platforms between the supporters of rapprochement with France, who oppose the Turkish role, and Ankara’s agreement with Rome in Libya.

Saied’s statements in Paris sparked a wave of controversy. Surprisingly, symbols of the Arab-Islamic movements, who stood by the president during the past months, accused him of “betraying the patriots who fought the French occupation.”

In France, the Tunisian president described the 75 years of colonization as “protection” rather than “occupation.”

MP Abdellatif Al-Alawi denounced Saied’s refusal that France apologize for its crimes during the period of its direct occupation of the country.
On the other hand, a large segment of Annahda opponents supported the president’s declared opposition to what they described as “the new Ottoman Turkish occupation of Libya.”

Finally, many political circles close to the president warned against exploiting the outcome of Saied’s visit to France and his statements to attack “state symbols” and to get involved “directly or indirectly in the international game of axes in Libya.”

Some of the former senior military officials, including ex-Director General of Military Security Major General Mohamed al-Medad, called on all parties in Tunisia to take a neutral stance, warning of a scenario of military and security escalation in Libya that could last for years.

Similarly, senior politicians, including a number of former foreign ministers, stressed the need for the Tunisian diplomacy to adhere to its fundamentals and its “positive neutrality and avoid interference in the internal affairs of countries.”



Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
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Three Scenarios for Russia’s Military Presence in Syria

Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspecting his troops at Hmeimim Airbase in Latakia on December 12, 2017 (Sputnik/AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he would meet former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia after his regime fell in Damascus. But what will Putin say to his former ally? And how might their first exchange unfold, given Russia’s role in helping Assad escape on a chaotic night?

The Kremlin, known for staging Putin’s meetings with precision, might opt to limit media coverage this time. Putin could be seen sitting at a small table with Assad, now on asylum

in Moscow, in a soundless scene—one that leaves little room for formal pleasantries.

Why has Putin announced plans to meet Assad? Is it to reprimand him? Many in Russia believe Assad’s stubbornness has hurt Moscow’s efforts, threatened its gains in Syria, and could eventually risk its key military presence there.

As details remain unclear, Russian experts are racing to analyze developments in Syria and outline scenarios for the next phase.

Some Russian experts have painted grim scenarios. A member of the prestigious Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy warned of potential risks, including a prolonged conflict with civil war elements, a humanitarian catastrophe with millions of refugees, escalating migration in Europe, and rising tensions among nations like Israel, the US, and Iran.

He also predicted a new wave of international terrorism that could reach far beyond the region.

Other experts echoed this pessimism. One posted an image of a Syrian dissident stepping on a statue of Assad’s father, warning that “this is just the beginning.” Another blamed the crisis on the “Obama curse,” citing the West’s interference, while a third shared a bleak analysis titled, “We Must Pray for Syria.”

So far, Russian media and think tanks have avoided any optimistic outlooks for Syria’s future.

Experts, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, believe Moscow may be preparing to handle one of three possible scenarios in Syria.

The first, most favorable for Russia’s interests, involves Moscow reaching an agreement with the new Syrian authorities to maintain its military presence for a limited period.

This could mean replacing the current 49-year agreements with a five-year deal to facilitate a gradual Russian withdrawal. Such an arrangement could help the new leadership in Syria manage Western pressure to cut ties with Moscow.

The second scenario envisions Russia giving up its airbase in Hmeimim while retaining a significant presence in Tartus. This would mirror agreements from 1972, which allowed Russian naval vessels to use the Tartus logistics center in the Mediterranean. This compromise would preserve Russia’s interests while reducing Western pressure on Damascus.

The third scenario involves a full Russian withdrawal from both bases, with Moscow later seeking agreements for shared use of air and sea ports. Such agreements, similar to those Russia has signed with other countries, are less likely to provoke Western opposition.

Regardless of the outcome, the Kremlin has yet to develop a clear strategy for dealing with the emerging situation in Syria.

Key questions remain, including how to curb Iran’s regional influence, manage Türkiye and Israel’s growing roles in Syria, and establish a new regional balance that secures Moscow’s minimum interests.