Tensions High in Baghdad after Raids against Kataib Hezbollah

Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)
Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)
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Tensions High in Baghdad after Raids against Kataib Hezbollah

Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)
Iraqi security forces stand guard near the gates of the heavily fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, Iraq, March 31, 2016. (Reuters)

Tensions were high in the Iraqi capital Baghdad after security forces raided the headquarters of the pro-Iran Kataib Hezbollah faction, arresting 14 members, including an Iranian rockets expert.

Observers have speculated that the tensions will continue to rise between the government, which ordered the raid, and the armed factions that oppose Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi.

The raid was the most brazen action by Iraqi forces against a major Iran-backed militia in years. The Kataib Hezbollah group is accused by US officials accuse of firing rockets at bases hosting US troops and other facilities in Iraq.

It signaled that Kadhimi, whose government is negotiating Iraq’s security, political and economic ties with Washington, intends to fulfill pledges to rein in militia groups that have attacked US installations.

The move did not sit well with Qais Khazali, leader of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq militant group, who “advised” Kadhimi against becoming involved in tensions between the factions and American forces.

In a televised address to the premier, he said that rocket attacks that targeted Baghdad airport and the Green Zone, which houses foreign embassies, was not directed against Iraq or Iraqis, but at “American targets.”

“Resistance factions have the right to resist occupiers according to state and religious laws,” he declared.

Moreover, he warned that the arrest of members of the pro-Iran Popular Mobilization Forces by the counter-terrorism units “will pave the way for widespread chaos”, describing the raid against the Kataib Hezbollah as a “dangerous precedent”.

“Neither the prime minister, nor anyone else can stand against the PMF members, who are demanding sovereignty. The counter-terrorism agency is a national agency that had fought alongside the PMF against terrorism. The issue should have been resolved with the PMF chief,” suggested Khazali, who boasts 15 lawmakers at parliament.

Observers said that Khazali’s statement has outlined the tensions between the government and the so-called “resistance axis” that is loyal to Iran.

Armed groups expert Hisham al-Hashemi told Asharq Al-Awsat that the “Katyusha cells” are affiliated with the resistance axis. These factions have undergone changes in recent months and have started to “rebel” against the state, he remarked.

They then started to challenge it and are now confronting it, he noted. The rebellion started at the beginning of the year after Washington killed Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and PMF deputy chief Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis near Baghdad airport.

He revealed that the government raid on Friday aborted a planned attack with 23 rockets against the Green Zone.

He said the government’s operations will only temporarily deter the “Katyusha cells”, citing Khazali’s remarks that he will not allow anyone to thwart these factions.

Head of the Center for Political Thinking in Iraq, Ihssan Shmary warned that the Katyusha rocket attacks are a threat to Iraq’s national security and western interests in the country.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the attacks will negatively impact Iraq’s foreign image and undermine the PM’s efforts to limit the possession of arms in the country in the hands of the state.

“I believe that the attacks will not stop, especially since the armed factions are starting to greatly up their rhetoric,” he added. The situation is ultimately up to how Kadhimi manages the situation.

He predicted that the PM will face “major challenges, significantly since the armed factions have political arms inside parliament and can therefore, impede government work.”



Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
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Hamas Comes Under Pressure in Lebanon

The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)
The Supreme Defense Council, chaired by President Joseph Aoun, issued a recommendation to the government to warn Hamas against using Lebanese territory for any actions that undermine national security (Lebanese Presidency)

Relations between Hamas and the Lebanese state have entered a critical phase not seen since the country’s civil war era. In a rare and direct move, Lebanon’s Supreme Defense Council on Friday named Hamas in an official warning, cautioning the group against using Lebanese territories to conduct activities that threaten national security.

The warning follows rocket attacks in March, allegedly launched by Hamas operatives toward Israel from southern Lebanon, and signals a turning point in Beirut’s handling of the longstanding issue of Palestinian arms.

The issue is expected to dominate discussions during the upcoming visit of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Beirut on May 21. Lebanese authorities are reportedly preparing to demand that Hamas hand over individuals implicated in the rocket attacks.

Hamas officials in Lebanon declined to comment immediately, but sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that an official statement from the group is forthcoming.

Last month, the Lebanese army said it had identified those responsible for the March 22 and 28 rocket launches, revealing a cell composed of Lebanese and Palestinian nationals. Subsequent raids led to several arrests and the seizure of equipment used in the attacks. Security sources later confirmed the detention of three Hamas members - two Palestinians and one Lebanese.

Analysts and insiders believe Hamas now finds itself increasingly isolated in Lebanon. According to Palestinian political analyst Hisham Debassy, the group has little choice but to comply with Lebanese demands, including potentially disarming.

“The Defense Council’s position marks a serious and strategic shift,” said Debassy. “It sends a strong political message not just to Hamas but to any non-state actor operating militarily on Lebanese soil.”

Debassy described Hamas as being at a crossroads. “Either it cooperates with Lebanese authorities by handing over wanted individuals and signaling respect for state sovereignty, or it continues down a path of confrontation, an option that carries significant political and security costs.”

He noted that Hamas currently lacks the internal cohesion and public support to take a defiant stance. Internal divisions have grown between factions aligned with Iran and others favoring political reintegration within the broader Muslim Brotherhood framework.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir said Hamas’ leadership, based largely in Qatar, remains mindful of Lebanon’s fragile security. “Hamas doesn’t want to endanger Lebanon,” he said, adding that the group is likely to act cautiously given the broader regional context.

Meanwhile, Abbas’ visit is seen as an opportunity to reshape Palestinian-Lebanese relations and advance state authority in Palestinian camps. Lebanese officials are seeking a roadmap, backed by the Palestinian Authority, that could lead to the phased dismantling of weapons in refugee camps, following similar efforts targeting pro-Syrian Palestinian factions in the Bekaa and Naameh regions.

Hamas’ presence in Lebanon had traditionally been limited to social and political activities. But its military footprint began to emerge after a 2022 explosion in the Burj al-Shemali camp. Since the Gaza war erupted in October 2023, Hamas’s armed wing has become more active in southern Lebanon, coordinating with Hezbollah in launching attacks on Israel, further complicating its position with Lebanese authorities.