Concerns Over Turkey Using Lebanese Economic Crisis for Political Expansion

Vehicles of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are parked at the Turkish engineering construction company's base in August 2013 (AFP/MAHMOUD ZAYYAT)
Vehicles of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are parked at the Turkish engineering construction company's base in August 2013 (AFP/MAHMOUD ZAYYAT)
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Concerns Over Turkey Using Lebanese Economic Crisis for Political Expansion

Vehicles of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are parked at the Turkish engineering construction company's base in August 2013 (AFP/MAHMOUD ZAYYAT)
Vehicles of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are parked at the Turkish engineering construction company's base in August 2013 (AFP/MAHMOUD ZAYYAT)

Concerns are mounting in Lebanon over Turkey’s political interference under the pretext of providing aid to alleviate the financial and living crisis.

Closed political circles are discussing the purpose behind Ankara’s food, medical and in-kind assistance to the most destitute families, and warning against attempts of a “political expansion towards Lebanon.”

Security services are monitoring these moves to ensure that they don’t intersect with Turkey’s security and political intervention in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and other countries in the African continent. Ankara’s interest in Lebanon was first manifested in Sidon with the establishment of an ophthalmology hospital with direct Turkish funding.

Analyzing the Turkish intervention, which is currently of a humanitarian nature, official Lebanese authorities do not hide their fears over Ankara’s attempt to benefit from the current situation to strengthen its presence, with the aim to expand politically in the medium or long terms.

The issue of foreign interference was raised in several meetings of the Higher Defense Council chaired by President Michel Aoun. While participants refused to enter into the details and to openly discuss the matter in the media, the minister of Interior, Brigadier General Mohamed Fahmi, hinted at such intervention in comments he made last week.

Senior political sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that talks about foreign intervention reflected the reality of the situation that would threaten to exacerbate Lebanon’s financial and political woes, which require a fast response by Arab brotherly countries “before it’s too late.”

The same sources revealed that Ankara assigned the Turkish Agency for Cooperation and Coordination (TIKA) the task of overseeing the distribution of aid through offices it had established in Tripoli, Akkar, Bekaa and Sidon, benefiting from the presence of Lebanese of Turkmen origin, and said that it maintained a direct relationship with the so-called representatives of the Turk tribes in North Lebanon.

The sources stressed that TIKA was not only active within the Sunni community, but has also begun to expand towards a number of other sects and within municipalities, universities and medical institutions.

They also noted that Turkey has a distinctive presence in the Bab al-Tabbaneh area in Tripoli, where Turkish flags and pictures of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are raised.



Gaza Ceasefire Traps Netanyahu between Trump and Far-right Allies

This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)
This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)
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Gaza Ceasefire Traps Netanyahu between Trump and Far-right Allies

This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)
This image grab from handout video footage released by the Israeli Government Press Office (GPO) shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving a televised address in Jerusalem on January 18, 2025. (Photo by GPO / AFP)

Even before it was signed, the Gaza ceasefire forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a tight spot - between a new US president promising peace and far-right allies who want war to resume. That tension is only likely to increase.
The stakes for Netanyahu are high -- keeping his coalition government on the one hand and on the other, satisfying US President Donald Trump who wants to use the ceasefire momentum to expand Israel's diplomatic ties in the Middle East.
One of Netanyahu's nationalist allies has already quit over the Gaza ceasefire, and another is threatening to follow unless war on Hamas is resumed at an even greater force than that which devastated much of Gaza for 15 months.
The clock is ticking. The first stage of the ceasefire is meant to last six weeks. By day 16 -- Feb. 4 -- Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas are due to start negotiating the second phase of the ceasefire, whose stated aim is to end the war.
Former police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party quit the government on Sunday and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that he will stay in government only if war resumes after the first phase until the total defeat of Hamas, whose Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel triggered the war.
"We must go back in a completely different style. We need to conquer Gaza, instate a military rule there, even if temporarily, to start encouraging (Palestinian) emigration, to start taking territory from our enemies and to win," Smotrich said in an interview with Channel 14 on Sunday.
Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, however, said on Wednesday he was focused on ensuring the deal moves from the first to second phase, which is expected to include a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
"Netanyahu is pressed between the far-right and Donald Trump," said political analyst Amotz Asa-El, with the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. "Netanyahu's coalition now is fragile and the likelihood that it will fall apart sometime in the course of 2025 is high."
Netanyahu's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Witkoff told Fox News on Wednesday that he will be on the ground overseeing the ceasefire, a signal that he will keep up the pressure he applied during the deal's negotiations.
According to six US, Israeli, Egyptian and other Mideast officials who spoke to Reuters in the run-up to the ceasefire announcement on Jan. 15, Witkoff played a crucial role in getting the deal over the line.
The ceasefire's first phase includes the release of hostages, a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces and aid flow into Gaza.
The second phase, if it happens, would include the release of remaining hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces. A third phase is expected to start Gaza's reconstruction, overseen by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.
One of the most difficult issues involved in negotiating the next phases is post-war Gaza's governance. Israel won't accept Hamas staying in power. Hamas so far has not given ground.
Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday, that Hamas will never govern Gaza and if it reneges on the deal, Washington will support Israel "in doing what it has to do."
On Saturday, after his government signed off on the ceasefire, Netanyahu said Israel had US backing to resume fighting if the second stage talks prove futile, leaving himself some political leeway with Smotrich, for now.
"If we need to go back to the fighting, we will do so in new ways and with great force," Netanyahu said in a video statement.