Waste-Watching: Sewage Can Help Track Pandemic Virus Trends

In this undated photo provided by Biobot in June 2020 technicians take a sewage sample. Across the US and in Europe, researchers and health officials say they can track the course of a community outbreak by studying the waste flushed from its bathrooms. And that can provide a valuable addition to public health tools, they say. (Biobot via AP)
In this undated photo provided by Biobot in June 2020 technicians take a sewage sample. Across the US and in Europe, researchers and health officials say they can track the course of a community outbreak by studying the waste flushed from its bathrooms. And that can provide a valuable addition to public health tools, they say. (Biobot via AP)
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Waste-Watching: Sewage Can Help Track Pandemic Virus Trends

In this undated photo provided by Biobot in June 2020 technicians take a sewage sample. Across the US and in Europe, researchers and health officials say they can track the course of a community outbreak by studying the waste flushed from its bathrooms. And that can provide a valuable addition to public health tools, they say. (Biobot via AP)
In this undated photo provided by Biobot in June 2020 technicians take a sewage sample. Across the US and in Europe, researchers and health officials say they can track the course of a community outbreak by studying the waste flushed from its bathrooms. And that can provide a valuable addition to public health tools, they say. (Biobot via AP)

One county in Utah beat back a spike of pandemic virus infections in the spring, and another saw its rate jump. Both trends showed up in their sewage.

Yes, sewage. Across the US and in Europe, researchers and health officials say they can track the course of a community outbreak of the new coronavirus by studying the waste flushed from its bathrooms. And that can provide a valuable addition to public health tools, they say.

In Utah, wastewater from communities near a Cache County meatpacking plant that discovered 287 infected workers indicated an outbreak several days before it was officially reported. In contrast, sewage from Summit County showed a decline after officials imposed anti-virus measures, including asking tourists to stay away from its popular Park City ski area.

The monitoring in April and May was part of a demonstration project, and the results helped persuade state officials to authorize a bigger monitoring effort that will include wastewater from 75% of Utah´s residents, said Erica Gaddis, director of the state´s Division of Water Quality.

Utah is far from alone in embracing that approach. When the Massachusetts company Biobot said on social media this spring that it would test wastewater for free, "it just kind of exploded," said CEO Marian Martus.

The company took on 400 wastewater plants in 42 states, representing waste from about 10% of the US population, she said. The company now charges for its service, Martus said, and still has hundreds of customers that regularly send in samples of about a half-cup (150 milliliters).

The British, Italian, and Dutch governments have also announced monitoring programs, with all wastewater treatment plants in the Netherlands to participate. "We can detect the virus anonymously, quickly and on a large scale," said Dutch health minister Hugo de Jonge.

The concept is straightforward. Studies indicate genetic material from the virus can be recovered from the stools of about half of patients with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. Wastewater analysis looks for that genetic material. Results over time are taken as indications of trends for infection in the community that produced the waste. That should even include people who would normally be overlooked because they don´t get tested or may not know they´re infected.

The approach can serve as an early warning because it can detect trends several days before results appear from community testing or people get sick enough to show up at a hospital, studies indicate. One Dutch study found a wastewater signal in a city six days before the community reported its first cases.

Sewage can be used as "a mirror of society,´´ said Gertjan Medema, a microbiologist at the KWR Water Research Institute in the Netherlands. "Sewage is more than just a wastewater carrier, it´s also an information carrier."

Sewage monitoring is "a very promising tool," said Vince Hill, chief of the waterborne disease prevention branch of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC is now working to understand how useful it can be in the US. "There is a lot to learn," he said. "We´re working on this with urgency."

Wastewater surveillance has long been used to look for outbreaks of the poliovirus. With the new application to the pandemic virus, scientists are working to refine their techniques as economies reopen and researchers warn of a possible surge of disease this fall.

They don´t yet have a reliable way to use wastewater to pin down just how many infected people a community has. Biobot provides estimates but its calculation method is still being studied and the estimates should not be taken as hard numbers, Martus said.

Researchers in the field are still working at "making sure we´ve got the science right," said Peter Grevatt, CEO of The Water Research Foundation, which promotes studies of water and wastewater to ensure water quality and service.

Among the unknowns experts cite: How does the viral shedding in stools vary by different stages of infection? How can lab results produced by different testing methods be compared? And how are samples affected by the characteristics of different sewage systems, such as the degree of dilution and the time waste spends in transit before being sampled?

Still, Matt Meyer, county executive for New Castle County in Delaware, said his community is putting reports from Biobot to work.

In addition to county-wide data from a central treatment plant, the county uses readings from its 11 sewage pumping stations that serve more localized areas. "That gives us a view of where the hot spots are and ... where the hot spots are developing if the numbers are going up," he said. So that helps officials decide where to put mobile stations for testing people.

The sewage data can also help gauge the effect of changes in measures to fight the virus spread, Meyer added.

Although he has no idea when a so-called "second wave" with surging infections may appear across the country, Meyer said, "We´re working like it´s going to happen any day now."



China's Population Falls for 3rd Straight Year

A delivery worker sits on a delivery vehicle along a street in Beijing on January 17, 2025. (Photo by Jade GAO / AFP)
A delivery worker sits on a delivery vehicle along a street in Beijing on January 17, 2025. (Photo by Jade GAO / AFP)
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China's Population Falls for 3rd Straight Year

A delivery worker sits on a delivery vehicle along a street in Beijing on January 17, 2025. (Photo by Jade GAO / AFP)
A delivery worker sits on a delivery vehicle along a street in Beijing on January 17, 2025. (Photo by Jade GAO / AFP)

China's population fell last year for the third straight year, its government said Friday, pointing to further demographic challenges for the world's second most populous nation, which is now facing both an aging population and an emerging shortage of working age people.
China's population stood at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year, The Associated Press reported.
The figures announced by the government in Beijing follow trends worldwide, but especially in East Asia, where Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and other nations have seen their birth rates plummet. China three years ago joined Japan and most of Eastern Europe among other nations whose population is falling.
The reasons are in many cases similar: Rising costs of living are causing young people to put off or rule out marriage and child birth while pursuing higher education and careers. While people are living longer, that's not enough to keep up with rate of new births.
Countries such as China that allow very little immigration are especially at risk.
China has long been among the world’s most populous nations, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters to sustain a population that thrived on rice in the south and wheat in the north. Following the end of World War II and the Communist Party’s rise to power in 1949, large families re-emerged and the population doubled in just three decades, even after tens of millions died in the Great Leap Forward that sought to revolutionize agriculture and industry and the Cultural Revolution that followed a few years later.
After the end of the Cultural Revolution and leader Mao Zedong's death, Communist bureaucrats began to worry the country’s population was outstripping its ability to feed itself and began implementing a draconian “one child policy.” Though it was never law, women had to apply for permission to have a child and violators could face forced late-term abortions and birth control procedures, massive fines and the prospect of their child being deprived an identification number, effectively making them non-citizens.
Rural China, where the preference for male offspring was especially strong and two children were still ostensibly allowed, became the focus of government efforts, with women forced to present evidence they were menstruating and buildings emblazoned with slogans such as “have fewer children, have better children."
The government sought to stamp out selective abortion of female children, but with abortions legal and readily available, those operating illicit sonogram machines enjoyed a thriving business.
That has been the biggest factor in China’s lopsided sex ratio, with as many as millions more boys born for every 100 girls, raising the possibility of social instability among China’s army of bachelors. Friday’s report gave the sex imbalance as 104.34 men to every 100 women, though independent groups give the imbalance as considerably higher.
More disturbing for the government was the drastically falling birthrate, with China’s total population dropping for the first time in decades in 2023 and China being narrowly overtaken by India as the world’s most populous nation in the same year. A rapidly aging population, declining workforce, lack of consumer markets and migration abroad are putting the system under severe pressure.
While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China’s already frail social security system is teetering, with increasing numbers of Chinese refusing to pay into the underfunded pension system.
Already, more than one-fifth of the population is aged 60 or over, with the official figure given as 310.3 million or 22% of the total population. By 2035, this number is forecast to exceed 30%, sparking discussion of changes to the official retirement age, which one of the lowest in the world. With fewer students, some vacant schools and kindergartens are meanwhile being transformed into care facilities for older people.
Such developments are giving some credence to the aphorism that China, now the world’s second largest economy but facing major headwinds, will “grow old before it grows rich.”
Government inducements including cash payouts for having up to three children and financial help with housing costs have had only temporary effects.
Meanwhile, China continued its transition to an urban society, with 10 million more people moving to cities for an urbanization rate of 67%, up almost a percentage point from the previous year.