Jerusalem Offers a Grim Model for a Post-Annexation Future

A general view of a Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan in east Jerusalem, seen on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. (AP)
A general view of a Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan in east Jerusalem, seen on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. (AP)
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Jerusalem Offers a Grim Model for a Post-Annexation Future

A general view of a Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan in east Jerusalem, seen on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. (AP)
A general view of a Palestinian neighborhood of Silwan in east Jerusalem, seen on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. (AP)

It's hard to say what exactly will change in the West Bank if Israel follows through on its plans to annex parts of the occupied territory, but east Jerusalem, which was annexed more than a half-century ago, may provide some answers.

Israeli leaders paint Jerusalem as a model of coexistence, the “unified, eternal” capital of the Jewish people, where minorities have equal rights. But Palestinian residents face widespread discrimination, most lack citizenship and many live in fear of being forced out.

Rights groups say that in some aspects, Palestinians in east Jerusalem have even fewer legal protections than those in the West Bank, where it's possible to appeal to international laws governing the treatment of civilians in occupied territory.

They point to Israel's Absentee Property Law of 1950, which allows the state to take control of any property whose owner lives in an “enemy state” and was used to confiscate the lands and homes of the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who fled or were forced out during the war surrounding Israel's creation in 1948.

Rights groups say that in recent decades, authorities have abused the law to seize homes in sensitive parts of Jerusalem, evicting Palestinian residents and paving the way for settlers to move in.

The Sumarin family has been locked in a 30-year legal battle to prove ownership of their home in Silwan, an east Jerusalem neighborhood coveted by Jewish settlers because of its proximity to holy sites.

When the original owner died in the 1980s, the property was deemed to have an absentee landlord because his four children lived in Jordan. The Israeli branch of the Jewish National Fund then purchased the property from the state in 1991. Last week, a court ordered the family to vacate the property by mid-August and to pay around $5,800 in court fees.

Family members say the original owner left it to his nephew, who was born and raised there, and from whom they are descended. The extended family living in the home, which now includes 15 men, women and children, says it will appeal the decision.

“Who’s absent? We’re right here. I’ve been here for 40 years," said Amal Sumarin, the wife of the nephew's son. “Where are the families with their children supposed to go? Every house built in Silwan is under threat.”

The Israeli branch of the Jewish National Fund, which promotes Jewish settlement in the holy land and is known by its Hebrew acronym KKL, did not respond to Associated Press requests for comment.

Rights groups fear that if annexation takes place, Israel will use the same law to strip Palestinians of privately held land in the West Bank.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to annex all of Israel's settlements and the strategic Jordan Valley in line with President Donald Trump's Middle East plan, which overwhelmingly favors Israel and was rejected by the Palestinians.

It's unclear when or even if Netanyahu will follow through on his pledge, but he has made clear that he wants to annex land but not people, leaving cities, towns and villages under limited Palestinian self-rule. Tens of thousands of acres of privately owned land would likely become part of Israel, potentially leaving the owners “absent” in enclaves outside its new borders.

“It’s not something that we will see the first day of annexation, and it won’t be a big announcement," said Hagit Ofran, an expert on settlement policy at Peace Now, an Israeli rights group opposed to the settlements. "But the potential is that Israel will not only prevent the owners from accessing their land... but also take over their land.”

Palestinians in the annexed territories are unlikely to be offered citizenship, due to Israel's interest in preserving its Jewish majority, and many would refuse it so as not to legitimize Israeli rule. Instead, they are likely to get the same kind of permanent residency held by most Palestinians in east Jerusalem.

That form of residency grants Palestinians access to social services, freedom of movement in Israel and the right to vote in local elections — but not national ones. It can be revoked if Palestinians reside outside the city, as many are tempted to do because of the difficulty of building or expanding homes in east Jerusalem.

Peace Now has found evidence of systematic housing discrimination and says around half of all Palestinian housing units in east Jerusalem have been built without hard-to-get permits, putting them at risk of demolition by Israeli authorities.

The inequities are on vivid display in Silwan, a crowded, run-down Palestinian neighborhood spilling into a valley just outside the walls of the Old City. Its proximity to the bitterly-contested hilltop religious site known to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary and to Jews as the Temple Mount has made it a focus for powerful settler organizations who have spent decades acquiring properties there.

Palestinians view the sale of properties to such groups as a betrayal of their national cause, so the transactions are often carried out in secret through Palestinian middlemen, leading to drawn-out legal disputes and in some cases the physical takeover of homes — or parts of homes — by settlers who claim to have bought them.

Jawad Siyam's backyard is divided by a crude wall of corrugated steel. On the other side, a group of settlers live in a building that belonged to his family for decades. The settlers took control last year after a complicated 25-year legal battle that they won, in part by invoking the Absentee Property Law.

The two families don't get along.

Siyam says they shout at each other from their respective terraces. When the settlers held a party recently, Siyam responded to the loud music by dragging his speakers outside and blasting Arab pop.

“He is not a settler that comes to be your neighbor, he comes to take the next house and the next house," Siyam said. “These neighbors are coming to kick you out.”

Daniel Luria, the executive director of Ateret Cohanim, one of the settler organizations that operates in Silwan, says Jews have as much right to live there as in Tel Aviv. For him and other ideological settlers, Jerusalem is the capital of the biblical homeland promised to the Jews, and the settlers are heirs to the “pioneers” who established Israel in the first place.

“The Jews have a right, clearly, as the true sons of Abraham coming back home, to live in any neighborhood," he said. "Especially if an Arab wants to sell, which is the case in 99% of the cases.”

For many Palestinians living in the West Bank, which has been under Israeli military rule for decades, annexation seems like a grim formality. Siyam fears they will be in for a cruel awakening.

“People think it will not change because they talk about the big image," he said. "If you talk about the small image, and details, it will change a lot.”



Israel Planning to Exploit Druze File to Weaken Sharaa’s Rule in Syria

Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
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Israel Planning to Exploit Druze File to Weaken Sharaa’s Rule in Syria

Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.
Head of the Military Council, Tareq al-Shoufi, is seen with his fighters.

After the ouster of former president Bashar al-Assad, Israel supported Druze fighters in the south, in an effort to weaken Syria’s new government under the rule of President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and thus complicate his efforts to unify the country after its long civil war, according to a Washington Post report on Tuesday.

Current and former Israeli officials said this policy was not an immediate reaction to developments, but rather the result of a pre-planning that began months before the collapse of the Assad regime.

Since 2024, Druze leaders in Israel sought out a Syrian Druze counterpart who could help lead the 700,000 Druze in Syria in case the Assad regime collapsed, two former Israeli officials directly involved in the effort said.

Tareq al-Shoufi

Israeli officials told the Washington Post that Israel turned to Tareq al-Shoufi, a former colonel in Assad’s army.

A former Israeli official recalled tapping “20 men with military experience, dishing out ranks and tasks, and beginning to work on what was called the ‘Military Council’” in the Druze stronghold of Sweida province in southern Syria.

At the time, the Military Council, led by Shoufi, enjoyed the support of Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, a fiery, 60-year-old Venezuelan-born Druze cleric who has called for the establishment of a self-governing Druze state backed by Israel, a founding member of the council said.

One the former Israeli officials said that to help Shoufi renovate an old building as a command center and buy uniforms and basic equipment, Druze members of the Israeli security establishment funneled him $24,000 via the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The official added that the money was meant to tide over the Council until the Assad regime fell.

SDF role

The Post revealed that the SDF played a pivotal role in supporting Druze fighters.

The former Israeli official and two Druze commanders in Syria said up to half-million dollars were separately sent by the SDF to Hijri’s forces.

The SDF also trained Druze fighters, including women, in Kurdish-controlled areas in northern Syria, with that training reportedly continuing to this day, according to a senior Kurdish official.

Arms confiscated from Hezbollah, Hamas

The Washington Post report said when the Assad regime fell on December 8, 2024, Israel sprang directly into action.

Weapons supplied to the Druze by Israel included arms previously seized by fighters from Hezbollah and Hamas. A Druze commander told the Post that they also received sniper rifles, night vision equipment and machine gun ammunition.

Israelis are also providing monthly payments between $100 to $200 to about 3,000 Druze fighters from Hijri’s forces, two Druze officials said, further demonstrating that it continues to maintain a counterweight to the central Syrian government.

‘Fluid’ situation

The report also revealed that Israel provided Druze fighters with anti-tank missiles and satellite imagery that were used during battles against Syrian government forces, giving them a clear field advantage.

Today, Israeli officials and others briefed on their thinking say the situation in Syria — and Israel’s policy toward the Druze — remain fluid, according to the Washington Post report.

Backing an independent state would create a situation where “Israel needs to now defend a population that’s 100 kilometers away from the border,” an Israeli adviser said. “If we have an interest here, it’s not to create an independent Druzistan.”

Israeli officials have also grown wary of the internal power struggles that emerged among the Syrian Druze.

In August, Hijri sought to be recognized as the sole legitimate military authority among the Syrian Druze, and the “National Guard,” a new militia led by Hijri and his son Suleiman, replaced the Military Council as the recipient of weapons from Israel, according to a Syrian Druze commanders and the two former Israeli officials directly involved.

The move led to schisms among Druze commanders.

After US President Donald Trump first shook hands with Sharaa in May, Israel in August halted the flow of weapons to the Druze, Israeli and Druze officials revealed.

Therefore, Israel’s support for the Druze is carefully calibrated.

Israeli analysts warned that propping up an autonomous Druze state or proxy militia would represent a far different mandate than cooperating with them to secure Israel’s border.

One government adviser noted that Israel did not have a “good experience in south Lebanon,” where it supported a pro-Israel militia called the South Lebanon Army for two decades before the group crumbled in the face of Hezbollah advances in 2000.

Druze state stretching to Iraq

A Western official told the Post that Hijri prepared maps of a proposed future Druze state stretching all the way to Iraq and pitched it to at least one major Western government in early 2025.

The newspaper revealed that Israel is using the Druze paper in South Syria to undermine Sharaa’s ability to centralize power.

It said Israel is practicing a “shadow” policy in Syria: planned support for minorities, limited military intervention and tactical openness to negotiation, without a clear commitment to a final political path.

The report shows that the future of Israel’s policy towards Druze in south Syria remains dependent on the ability of Sharaa’s government to consolidate its power over the entire territory, and how willing Washington is to balance its bets on Sharaa to restore stability in Syria and respond to Israeli security concerns.


‘No Male Visitors’: Gaza Rents Soar Under Tight Restrictions

A woman sits next to her tent on an alley of a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP)
A woman sits next to her tent on an alley of a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP)
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‘No Male Visitors’: Gaza Rents Soar Under Tight Restrictions

A woman sits next to her tent on an alley of a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP)
A woman sits next to her tent on an alley of a makeshift tent camp for displaced Palestinians in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP)

For weeks, Nafez al-Ghorani has moved from one lead to another, spending long, punishing days searching for an apartment to rent, clinging to the hope of finding a roof for his family until they can return to their own home in Gaza.

A resident of Sheikh Radwan in the city’s north, al-Ghorani is now displaced in Khan Younis in the south, where his search has collided with a stark reality, as widespread destruction has left most homes and residential buildings uninhabitable.

Finding an apartment was not the only challenge facing al-Ghorani and hundreds of others each day. More difficult still are the complex conditions imposed by landlords when someone is fortunate enough to find a vacant unit.

Al-Ghorani, who currently lives in a tent in Khan Younis, told Asharq Al-Awsat that whenever he finds an apartment suitable for rent, the owner asks for a copy of his identity card to conduct background checks, either in his original neighborhood before his home was destroyed or through other parties, before approving the lease.

He said his requests were rejected several times for reasons he could not understand.

In one instance, after agreeing on rent with a landlord, al-Ghorani was surprised by a condition barring him from receiving any male visitors in the apartment, even his brothers, over fears that one of them might belong to a Palestinian faction, which could expose the building to an Israeli strike.

Al-Ghorani said he rejected the condition, and the landlord, in turn, refused to rent the apartment.

Al-Ghorani said that finding an apartment for rent, even at exorbitant prices, has become nearly impossible amid the complications imposed by homeowners who fear for their properties and their own safety.

While he considers such concerns a legitimate right, he pointed to what he described as excessive and sometimes unjustified conditions, including those that prevented him from renting despite the fact that neither he nor any of his five children belongs to any faction.

Forced choices

With only a small number of homes and apartments left standing in Gaza after widespread destruction across large parts of the enclave, residents fear being targeted by Israeli strikes as ceasefire violations continue following the truce that took effect on Oct. 10.

In a report published early this year, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said 92 percent of housing units in Gaza have been destroyed or damaged.

The office said 436,000 housing units were affected by the war, with 160,000 completely destroyed and 276,000 partially damaged, some severely.

The report stated that more than 1.8 million people are in urgent need of emergency shelter and basic household essentials.

Fadl al-Shanti, who owns a six-story residential building in western Gaza City, said he cannot rent to anyone without first inquiring about them, calling it a fundamental right to protect his building and the lives of his family members who live in one of its apartments.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he said Israel does not wait for permission when it decides to strike a suspected militant and has committed dozens of massacres against entire families and buildings to kill a single person.

“The lives of my family and those living in the building are a trust I carry as part of my responsibilities,” he said.

He added that as a building owner, he is not against his own people, whether they belong to a Palestinian faction or not, but said there are compelling circumstances and harsh conditions that cannot be ignored.

“I cannot sacrifice the lives of several families for one person who can find an alternative place,” he said.

Al-Shanti acknowledged that some landlords have sharply raised rents, yet demand among those forced to seek housing remains high. He said he personally raised the rent from prewar levels to about $800 from $500 previously, while most landlords now demand between $1,000 and $1,500 for apartments ranging from 130 to 170 square meters.

Before the war, rents ranged from $200 to $500, while furnished apartments rented for up to $700 per month.

A citizen without a homeland

Conditions imposed by landlords do not stop there. Some landlords refuse to rent to families with more than six members or impose conditions related to water, such as requiring tenants to share the landlord’s limited water allocation due to severe shortages.

It has also been noted that most apartment owners refuse to rent to people working in certain professions, such as journalists, medical staff and university professors, due to their repeated targeting by Israel during the war.

Haitham Omar, who was also searching for an apartment, said he was shocked by the excessive price hikes and the onerous conditions, in addition to payments demanded by brokers and intermediaries who market the apartments.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, he stated that a landlord demanded $1,300 per month for a two-room apartment with a kitchen and living room.

“I am a simple citizen working in a private sector company, and all I earn monthly is $550,” he said.

Even damaged units have not escaped high rents. Omar said the owner of a damaged apartment demanded about $600 a month, even though parts of it were covered with tarpaulins, describing the situation as unjust.

With bitterness in his voice, he added, “They were right to say that a home is a homeland, and today we are without a homeland.”

Even women are barred from visiting

Iman al-Attar, a young woman who works as an online intermediary between landlords and tenants, noted that some conditions are viewed by many as normal, adding that apartment owners fear that tenants may host displaced relatives in the same unit, which can affect building services.

She recounted an incident in which a landlord imposed a condition banning the tenant from receiving any guests, men or women, claiming that Israel had struck women because their husbands were faction members. She said the tenant rejected the condition outright.

As for banning male visitors, al-Attar said it has become a frequent practice and is now often included as a clause in rental contracts.

She did not deny that most apartment owners are exploiting the current situation, with no clear vision for reconstruction or a definitive end to the war, to impose their conditions and raise rents to excessive levels.


Global Nuclear Arms Control under Pressure in 2026 

Russian Yars ICBMs travel through central Moscow, Russia, May 3, 2025. (AFP)
Russian Yars ICBMs travel through central Moscow, Russia, May 3, 2025. (AFP)
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Global Nuclear Arms Control under Pressure in 2026 

Russian Yars ICBMs travel through central Moscow, Russia, May 3, 2025. (AFP)
Russian Yars ICBMs travel through central Moscow, Russia, May 3, 2025. (AFP)

The fragile global legal framework for nuclear weapons control faces further setbacks in 2026, eroding guardrails to avoid a nuclear crisis.

The first half of the year will see two key events: the US-Russia bilateral treaty, New START, expires on February 5, and in April, New York hosts the Review Conference (RevCon) of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) -- the cornerstone of global nuclear security frameworks.

The RevCon, held every four to five years, is meant to keep the NPT alive. But during the last two sessions, the 191 signatory states failed to agree on a final document, and experts expect the same outcome in April.

"I think this is going to be a difficult RevCon," said Alexandra Bell, head of US-based global security nonprofit the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, at a UN-hosted online conference in early December.

"In terms of the current state and near future prospects of nuclear arms control architecture, things are bleak," she added.

Anton Khlopkov, director of Russian think-tank the Center for Energy and Security Studies (CENESS), took an even starker point of view, saying at the same event that "we are at the point of almost complete dismantlement of arms control architecture".

"We should be realistic in the current circumstances. At best, I think we should try to preserve what we have," he said.

- 'Crumbling' safeguards -

From US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites to Russia's test of the new Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and US President Donald Trump's remarks about possibly resuming nuclear tests -- the international nuclear landscape darkened in 2025.

At the same time, "the arms control architecture is crumbling", Emmanuelle Maitre of France's Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) told AFP.

A key challenge hinges on a shift in global relations.

Nuclear control had been built over decades around a Moscow-Washington axis, but China's growing power and rapid technological advances have shifted the international playing field, which is simultaneously increasingly strained.

"The growing interlinkage between nuclear and conventional forces and the emergence of disruptive technologies (such as the US Golden Dome defense system and new hypersonic weapons) have transformed traditional nuclear deterrence into a multi-domain concept, especially in a multipolar world," said Peking University's Hua Han.

"This trilateral configuration introduces complexities far beyond the Cold War-era bilateral model. Increasing China-Russia cooperation further complicates deterrence calculations, particularly in the two main theaters of concern: Europe and the Asia-Pacific," she added, according to the minutes of an April event held by Pakistan's Center for International Strategic Studies.

A likely result of the changing landscape is the lapse of New START, which sets weapon limits and includes inspection systems.

"The entire inspection component is no longer functioning, the notifications when a missile is moved, etc, all of that has vanished. What remains is only the voluntary commitment to stay within the limits," said Maitre.

- 'Collective solutions' -

But allowing New START to lapse is "in American interest", according to Robert Peters of the influential Heritage Foundation, reflecting the stance of much of the US strategic community to avoid tying Washington's hands to Moscow alone.

Beijing, which currently has fewer weapons, has so far refused to engage in trilateral disarmament talks.

"China is the fastest growing nuclear power on the planet. It's building 100 new warheads a year and now has more ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) silos than the US has active Minuteman III silos," Peters said at a recent online International Institute for Strategic Studies event.

"New START does nothing to address" that issue, he added.

However, Maitre said, a New START lapse doesn't mean the world should expect serious consequences as early as February 6.

In both Washington and Moscow, "there is a small margin to bring some weapons back into service, but the numbers cannot be very significant. There are bottlenecks" that will slow any buildup, she said.

Nor will the lack of a final document from the RevCon cause "immediate or damaging consequences" to the NPT, she said.

But, she warned, fewer safeguards risks leaving the world without diplomatic tools to resolve tensions.

"The less functional the NPT becomes, the harder it is to forge collective solutions in the event of a crisis."