Long-Planned, Bigger Than Thought: Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program

A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security
A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security
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Long-Planned, Bigger Than Thought: Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program

A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security
A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security

As Iran’s center for advanced nuclear centrifuges lies in charred ruins after an explosion, apparently engineered by Israel, the long-simmering conflict between the United States and Tehran appears to be escalating into a potentially dangerous phase likely to play out during the American presidential election campaign.

New satellite photographs over the stricken facility at Natanz show far more extensive damage than was clear last week. Two intelligence officials, updated with the damage assessment for the Natanz site recently compiled by the United States and Israel, said it could take the Iranians up to two years to return their nuclear program to the place it was just before the explosion. An authoritative public study estimates it will be a year or more until Iran’s centrifuge production capacity recovers.

Another major explosion hit the country early Friday morning, lighting up the sky in a wealthy area of Tehran. It was still unexplained — but appeared to come from the direction of a missile base. If it proves to have been another attack, it will further shake the Iranians by demonstrating, yet again, that even their best-guarded nuclear and missile facilities have been infiltrated.

Although Iran has said little of substance about the explosions, Western officials anticipate some type of retaliation, perhaps against American or allied forces in Iraq, perhaps a renewal of cyberattacks. In the past, those have been directed against American financial institutions, a major Las Vegas casino and a dam in the New York suburbs or, more recently, the water supply system in Israel, which its government considers “critical infrastructure.”

Officials familiar with the explosion at Natanz compared its complexity to the sophisticated Stuxnet cyberattack on Iranian nuclear facilities a decade ago, which had been planned for more than a year. In the case of last week’s episode, the primary theory is that an explosive device was planted in the heavily-guarded facility, perhaps near a gas line. But some experts have also floated the possibility that a cyberattack was used to trigger the gas supply.

Some officials said that a joint American-Israeli strategy was evolving — some might argue regressing — to a series of short-of-war clandestine strikes, aimed at taking out the most prominent generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and setting back Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The closest the administration has come to describing its strategy of more aggressive pushback came in comments last month from Brian H. Hook, the State Department’s special envoy for Iran. “We have seen historically,” he concluded, “that timidity and weakness invites more Iranian aggression.”

The next move may be a confrontation over four tankers, now making their way to Venezuela, which the United States has vowed will not be allowed to deliver their cargo of Iranian oil in violation of United States sanctions.

The emerging approach is risky, analysts warn, one that over the long term may largely serve to drive Iran’s nuclear program further underground, and thus make it harder to detect.

But in the short term, American and Israeli officials are betting that Iran will limit its retaliation, as it did after an American drone in January killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, one of Iran’s most important commanders.

While some American officials expressed fears that the killing of General Suleimani would lead Iran to initiate a war against the United States, the C.I.A. director, Gina Haspel, reassured them that the Iranians would settle on limited missile attacks against American targets in Iraq — which so far has turned out to be correct. Iran’s limited response could be an incentive for further operations against it.

In addition, some American and Israeli officials, and international security analysts, say that Iran may believe that President Trump will lose the November election and that his presumptive Democratic rival, Joseph R. Biden Jr., will want to resurrect some form of the negotiated settlement that the Obama administration reached with Tehran five years ago next week.

For now, the latest rocket attacks have been more harassing than harmful.

The New York Times



Malta Offers to Repair Gaza Aid Ship in Drone Strike Row

FILE PHOTO: A tug vessel puts a fire on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla vessel Conscience outside Maltese territorial waters in this handout picture provided by Malta Government Department of Information, May 2, 2025. Government of Malta/Handout via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: A tug vessel puts a fire on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla vessel Conscience outside Maltese territorial waters in this handout picture provided by Malta Government Department of Information, May 2, 2025. Government of Malta/Handout via REUTERS
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Malta Offers to Repair Gaza Aid Ship in Drone Strike Row

FILE PHOTO: A tug vessel puts a fire on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla vessel Conscience outside Maltese territorial waters in this handout picture provided by Malta Government Department of Information, May 2, 2025. Government of Malta/Handout via REUTERS
FILE PHOTO: A tug vessel puts a fire on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla vessel Conscience outside Maltese territorial waters in this handout picture provided by Malta Government Department of Information, May 2, 2025. Government of Malta/Handout via REUTERS

Malta offered on Sunday to repair an aid ship and send it on its way to Gaza after pro-Palestinian activists said the vessel had been hit by a drone strike.

But Prime Minister Robert Abela said the Freedom Flotilla Coalition must first allow a maritime surveyor on board to inspect the "Conscience" and determine what repairs are needed, AFP reported.

The pro-Palestinian activists had pointed the finger at Israel, which has blockaded the Gaza Strip throughout its military campaign against Hamas, for the attack.

If the ship can be fixed at sea, it will be, but otherwise it will be towed under Maltese control to the Mediterranean island for repairs, paid for by Malta.

"In the last few hours there was insistence that first the boat comes into Maltese waters and then the surveyor is allowed onboard," Abela said.

"Before a vessel -- any vessel -- is allowed to enter Maltese waters then control must be in the hands of Maltese authorities, especially when we are talking about a vessel with no flag, no insurance."

In an online press conference, members of the coalition who had been due to board the Conscience in Malta -- including Swedish activist Greta Thunberg -- said they had agreed to allow the inspection.

"When we received this offer from the Maltese government, we consulted with all of our Flotilla Coalition committee members who are on board," said Brazilian FFC volunteer Thiago Avila.

"And their decision is that this is a good proposition from the Maltese government," he said.

"As long as they can guarantee ... Conscience will not be stopped when it wants to leave on the humanitarian mission to take aid to Gaza."

The activists explained the Conscience has no flag because the government of the Pacific nation of Palau had announced that they were withdrawing their registration on Friday, the day of the alleged strike.

Otherwise, they insisted they had made every effort to comply with international maritime law when embarking on the mission to take aid to Palestinians in Gaza.

According to the Flotilla Coalition, the Conscience was attacked in international waters as it headed for Malta on Friday, causing a fire that disabled the vessel and minor injuries to crew members.

Maltese and Cypriot rescuers responded. No government has confirmed the Conscience was the victim of drones, but Cyprus's rescue agency said it had been informed by the island's foreign ministry of an Israeli strike.

The Israeli military did not provide an immediate response when contacted by AFP.

First reported by CNN, a flight tracking service showed that an Israeli C-130 military cargo plane had been in the area immediately before the incident and had made several low altitude sweeps over the area.

Israel is known for conducting covert operations beyond its borders, including several during the Gaza war that it only acknowledged later.

The activists said the strike appeared to target the boat's generator.