Long-Planned, Bigger Than Thought: Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program

A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security
A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security
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Long-Planned, Bigger Than Thought: Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Program

A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security
A satellite image of the destruction at Natanz, as seen on July 4.Credit...via Institute for Science and International Security

As Iran’s center for advanced nuclear centrifuges lies in charred ruins after an explosion, apparently engineered by Israel, the long-simmering conflict between the United States and Tehran appears to be escalating into a potentially dangerous phase likely to play out during the American presidential election campaign.

New satellite photographs over the stricken facility at Natanz show far more extensive damage than was clear last week. Two intelligence officials, updated with the damage assessment for the Natanz site recently compiled by the United States and Israel, said it could take the Iranians up to two years to return their nuclear program to the place it was just before the explosion. An authoritative public study estimates it will be a year or more until Iran’s centrifuge production capacity recovers.

Another major explosion hit the country early Friday morning, lighting up the sky in a wealthy area of Tehran. It was still unexplained — but appeared to come from the direction of a missile base. If it proves to have been another attack, it will further shake the Iranians by demonstrating, yet again, that even their best-guarded nuclear and missile facilities have been infiltrated.

Although Iran has said little of substance about the explosions, Western officials anticipate some type of retaliation, perhaps against American or allied forces in Iraq, perhaps a renewal of cyberattacks. In the past, those have been directed against American financial institutions, a major Las Vegas casino and a dam in the New York suburbs or, more recently, the water supply system in Israel, which its government considers “critical infrastructure.”

Officials familiar with the explosion at Natanz compared its complexity to the sophisticated Stuxnet cyberattack on Iranian nuclear facilities a decade ago, which had been planned for more than a year. In the case of last week’s episode, the primary theory is that an explosive device was planted in the heavily-guarded facility, perhaps near a gas line. But some experts have also floated the possibility that a cyberattack was used to trigger the gas supply.

Some officials said that a joint American-Israeli strategy was evolving — some might argue regressing — to a series of short-of-war clandestine strikes, aimed at taking out the most prominent generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and setting back Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The closest the administration has come to describing its strategy of more aggressive pushback came in comments last month from Brian H. Hook, the State Department’s special envoy for Iran. “We have seen historically,” he concluded, “that timidity and weakness invites more Iranian aggression.”

The next move may be a confrontation over four tankers, now making their way to Venezuela, which the United States has vowed will not be allowed to deliver their cargo of Iranian oil in violation of United States sanctions.

The emerging approach is risky, analysts warn, one that over the long term may largely serve to drive Iran’s nuclear program further underground, and thus make it harder to detect.

But in the short term, American and Israeli officials are betting that Iran will limit its retaliation, as it did after an American drone in January killed Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, one of Iran’s most important commanders.

While some American officials expressed fears that the killing of General Suleimani would lead Iran to initiate a war against the United States, the C.I.A. director, Gina Haspel, reassured them that the Iranians would settle on limited missile attacks against American targets in Iraq — which so far has turned out to be correct. Iran’s limited response could be an incentive for further operations against it.

In addition, some American and Israeli officials, and international security analysts, say that Iran may believe that President Trump will lose the November election and that his presumptive Democratic rival, Joseph R. Biden Jr., will want to resurrect some form of the negotiated settlement that the Obama administration reached with Tehran five years ago next week.

For now, the latest rocket attacks have been more harassing than harmful.

The New York Times



The Scale of Afghans Returning from Iran is Overwhelming, Says UN Official

Afghan refugees who returned after fleeing Iran to escape deportation and conflict arrive at a UNHCR facility near the Islam Qala crossing in western Herat province, Afghanistan, on Friday, June 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Omid Haqjoo)
Afghan refugees who returned after fleeing Iran to escape deportation and conflict arrive at a UNHCR facility near the Islam Qala crossing in western Herat province, Afghanistan, on Friday, June 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Omid Haqjoo)
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The Scale of Afghans Returning from Iran is Overwhelming, Says UN Official

Afghan refugees who returned after fleeing Iran to escape deportation and conflict arrive at a UNHCR facility near the Islam Qala crossing in western Herat province, Afghanistan, on Friday, June 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Omid Haqjoo)
Afghan refugees who returned after fleeing Iran to escape deportation and conflict arrive at a UNHCR facility near the Islam Qala crossing in western Herat province, Afghanistan, on Friday, June 20, 2025. (AP Photo/Omid Haqjoo)

The pace and scale of Afghans returning from Iran are overwhelming already fragile support systems, a senior UN official warned Tuesday, with tens of thousands of people crossing the border daily exhausted and traumatized, relying on humanitarian aid.

So far this year, more than 1.4 million people have returned or been forced to return to Afghanistan, including over 1 million from Iran.

Iran and Pakistan in 2023 launched separate campaigns to expel foreigners they said were living in the country illegally. They set deadlines and threatened them with deportation if they didn’t leave. The two governments deny targeting Afghans, who have fled their homeland over the decades to escape war, poverty or Taliban rule, The AP news reported.

The UN special representative for Afghanistan, Roza Otunbayeva, called for immediate international support for Afghanistan following a visit to the Islam Qala border crossing in western Herat province near Iran.

The “sheer volume of returns —many abrupt, many involuntary,” should be setting off alarm bells across the global community, Otunbayeva said.

“Without swift interventions, remittance losses, labor market pressures and cyclical migration will lead to devastating consequences such as the further destabilization of both returnee and host populations, renewed displacement, mass onward movement, and risks to regional stability,” she said.

Returns from Iran peaked in June following a 20 March government deadline requiring all “undocumented” Afghans to leave. The UN migration agency recorded more than 28,000 people crossing back into Afghanistan on June 25.

Afghanistan is a ‘forgotten crisis’ Most Afghans depend on humanitarian assistance to survive. But deep funding cuts are worsening the situation, with aid agencies and nongovernmental organizations forced to cut education and health care programs.

Nicole van Batenburg, from the International Federation of the Red Cross, said Afghan children returning from Iran are developing scabies, fever and other illnesses because of deteriorating conditions at the border and the hot weather. Her colleagues were reuniting hundreds of children daily who got separated from their parents.

People lost their belongings and documents in the chaos of hasty exits. Most were only able to take a few suitcases with them, and some were now using their luggage as makeshift furniture.

“Afghanistan is an unseen crisis, and there are so many crises going on at this moment in the world that it seems to be forgotten,” van Batenburg told The Associated Press by phone from the border.

“The problems and the challenges are immense. We’re only talking about the situation here at the border, but these people have to return to some areas where they can live longer and where they can rebuild their lives.”

Last week, the Norwegian Refugee Council said many of its staff were hosting returning families in their homes. Authorities were doing their best to mobilize the few resources they had, but local systems were not equipped to cope with “such tremendous” needs.