Russia Uses Aid Deliveries to Syria to Avenge ‘Libyan Deception’

Displaced Syrian children. (AFP)
Displaced Syrian children. (AFP)
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Russia Uses Aid Deliveries to Syria to Avenge ‘Libyan Deception’

Displaced Syrian children. (AFP)
Displaced Syrian children. (AFP)

When Russia agreed in July 2014 to pass resolution 2165 that allowed the delivery of humanitarian aid to Syria through the border without Damascus’ approval, it received in return a pledge that the “Libyan deception” will not be repeated. It was referring to resolution 1973, issued in March 2011, to impose a no-fly zone over Libya and allow necessary measures to protect civilians and use military force by western powers to impose change in Libya.

Six years later, Moscow is exploiting the shifting situation in Syria, including its direct military presence there and the Middle East, including Libya, to pressure the United States and its allies to present more concessions before approving the short-term extension of the special UN resolution to deliver humanitarian aid to Syria through border crossings.

Between 2014 and 2019, the extension of resolution 2615 used to take place in a routine vote and Russia and China’s abstention. The resolution called for the continuation of aid deliveries through one border crossing with each of Iraq and Jordan and two with Turkey. The first western concession took place in December when Russia used its 14th veto on Syria when it moved against the continuation of the use of the four crossings. It instead called for the ongoing use of the two Turkish portals. At the time, it said that Syrian forces were now deployed in the South and east of the Euphrates River. It believed that there was no longer a need for delivering aid through the Iraq and Jordanian borders.

Politically, Moscow was pressuring western countries and UN agencies to work with the regime and work around Washington’s efforts to bar the normalization of relations with Damascus. Indeed, the resolution was re-drafted after western countries agreed to use the two border crossings. Moreover, they agreed to reduce the duration of the deliveries from one year to six months. The Security Council adopted the new resolution in January and it saw the delivery of aid to northwestern Syria where some 4 million people reside.

The second round of concessions appeared to draw near as the six months are now up. Western countries have raised their rhetoric and Washington once again began talking about using the al-Ya'rubiyah border between Iraq and the region east of the Euphrates. The World Health Organization in April submitted a request to the UN for the urgent opening of the crossing as part of efforts to combat the coronavirus outbreak. The plea was backed by western countries.

In June, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres asked for an extension of the delivery of aid through the Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa crossings with Turkey for an additional 12 months. He also backed the opening of the al-Ya'rubiyah crossing, saying that since its closure, the delivery of aid to the majority of medical facilities in northeastern Syria was being hampered.

But none of this happened. The WHO removed the request from its memo and Russia stood in the way. Baghdad informed the Syrian Democratic Forces that it would not open the al-Ya'rubiyah crossing without the approval of the Syrian government.

Now, Moscow is pushing the Security Council to make two concessions: Eliminating the Bab al-Salam crossing on Turkish border and that leads to Aleppo and for Guterres to submit a monthly report to the Security Council on the impact western sanctions are having on the humanitarian situation in Syria. This was seen as a response to the European Union’s decision in June to extend, for a year, sanctions against Damascus. The extension coincided with Washington’s implementation of the Caesar Act.

Russia resorted to its veto twice in one week over the decision to extend aid deliveries. Western countries, in turn, vetoed a Russian proposal to extend deliveries at one crossing for six months. As western countries and Russia continued to tussle in New York, concern was mounting Idlib as more cases of the coronavirus are being reported. Ultimately, the Security Council on Saturday approved aid deliveries to Syria through one border crossing from Turkey, a day after its authorization for the six-year-long humanitarian operation ended, leaving millions of Syrian civilians in limbo.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.