Syria: Electoral Campaigns Reflect Russian Absence, Iranian Influence

 A health worker tests a man as part of security measures to avoid the spread of coronavirus, at the Bab el-Salam border crossing between the Syrian town of Azaz and the Turkish town of Kilis, seen from Syria, March 14, 2020. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi
A health worker tests a man as part of security measures to avoid the spread of coronavirus, at the Bab el-Salam border crossing between the Syrian town of Azaz and the Turkish town of Kilis, seen from Syria, March 14, 2020. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi
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Syria: Electoral Campaigns Reflect Russian Absence, Iranian Influence

 A health worker tests a man as part of security measures to avoid the spread of coronavirus, at the Bab el-Salam border crossing between the Syrian town of Azaz and the Turkish town of Kilis, seen from Syria, March 14, 2020. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi
A health worker tests a man as part of security measures to avoid the spread of coronavirus, at the Bab el-Salam border crossing between the Syrian town of Azaz and the Turkish town of Kilis, seen from Syria, March 14, 2020. REUTERS/Khalil Ashawi

Electoral campaigns in Syrian government-controlled areas show that a large number of candidates for the People’s Council (Parliament) are closely linked to Iran, while a few others have ties to Russia, after Damascus rejected Moscow’s demands on the upcoming parliamentary polls.

Up to 8,735 candidates will compete for 250 seats in the elections that will be held on July 19.

The Baath Party announced the National Unity List, which comprises 166 Baathist candidates and 17 others from the National Progressive Front parties.

The elections will also see a wide participation by businessmen and prominent merchants, many of whom are running as independent candidates, especially in Damascus and Aleppo.

In Damascus, three lists formed of merchants and businessmen are competing in the electoral race. Those are “Jasmine”, “Damascus” and “Sham”.

A major investment of political money was seen in the advertisements for the lists of businessmen and big merchants, who have the largest share of billboards and banners, in comparison to shy campaigns for the rest of independent candidates.

In light of the suffocating living crisis in government-controlled areas, where 90 percent of citizens live below the poverty line, talks are circulating within media and advertising circles about businessmen and traders who are preparing to buy votes.

The majority of those candidates have strong ties with Iran, which supported the regime during the ongoing war.

Mohammed Hamsho is one of the leading candidates who has solid ties and extensive commercial links with Tehran. Also, militants affiliated with him have fought with the Iranian militias.

Hamsho is known to offer widespread financial support for residents of Damascus neighborhoods and suburbs.

Likewise, Fahd Mahmoud Darwish and Musan Nahhas both have extensive commercial links with Iran.

Darwish, who participated in the Iranian militias’ engagement in Damascus, is the vice-president of the Syrian-Iranian Joint Chamber of Commerce, and heads the Armada Company - the agent of Syrian-Iranian Auto Manufacturing Company.

He also chairs the Supreme Committee for Investors in the Free Zones and the General Manager of Al-Baraka pharmaceutical company, with its mother-company based in Iran. He is also one of the supervisors of the Iranian Center in the Damascus Free Zone, which encompasses 22 Iranian companies.

Nahas, for his part, is the secretary of the Syrian-Iranian Chamber of Commerce in Damascus, the director of the International Investment Company, the Caesar Investment Company, and Michelangelo Advertising. He is also the agent of the Iranol oil company and a member of the Board of Directors of Madarat for electronic payment services. He chairs the Development Association Charity, which provides support to thousands of Shiite families.

On the other hand, Russia’s role in these elections is almost unnoticeable. Candidates close to Moscow only include Businessman Hussam Qatirji and Burwin Ibrahim, a Kurd candidate for the city of Hasaka.

According to Law 5 of 2014 and its amendments, Syrians, who have left the country illegally are prevented from voting. The law stipulates that non-resident Syrians are only entitled to exercise their right to elect the President of the Republic. It does not refer, however, to the People’s Assembly elections.

State employees represent the largest number of voters. There are around 1.6 million public servants, in addition to the military in the army, who are now entitled to vote after the amendment of the electoral law in 2016.



What Role is the US Playing to Prevent Conflict in Lebanon from Escalating?

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
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What Role is the US Playing to Prevent Conflict in Lebanon from Escalating?

US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati [not pictured] in Beirut, Lebanon November 7, 2023. REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)

The United States is working hard to prevent the conflict in Lebanon from escalating. To achieve this, the Biden administration has sent special envoy Amos Hochstein to the region. His goal is to ease tensions and return to previous engagement rules.

Concerns have grown that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may follow through on threats of a full-scale war against Lebanon, especially with the military operation in Rafah nearing its end.

Hochstein is experienced with the Lebanese situation, having successfully brokered a historic maritime border agreement between Lebanon and Israel in October 2022.

He now aims to negotiate a similar agreement for the land borders to secure long-term stability between Hezbollah and Israel.

Hochstein has built a strong relationship with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who negotiates with the Americans on behalf of Hezbollah.

The US envoy hopes to replicate his 2022 success, although the ongoing Gaza conflict complicates efforts, as Hezbollah ties the fates of Gaza and Lebanon together.

Former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington, Dr. Riad Tabbara, says Washington’s current aim is to maintain regional stability and avoid a wide-scale war between Israel and its enemies.

Such a conflict could force US military involvement, an undesirable scenario in an election year with public and congressional opposition to war.

“The main American concern is ensuring any solutions protect Israel, which is struggling politically and militarily,” Tabbara told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“A key part of the US stance is to prevent the war from spreading in southern Lebanon,” he added, noting that “this is why the US continues to send envoys like Hochstein to the region.”

Additionally, the US engages in indirect communications with Hezbollah, despite its public policy of not dealing with the group.

According to Dr. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs, the US holds significant influence in Lebanon but isn't the sole player since World War II, with other actors entering the scene.

Nader highlighted US efforts to prevent Lebanon from being engulfed in war, citing reluctance for a third conflict amid ongoing crises in Ukraine and trade tensions with China.

He emphasized that the timing of any conflict is problematic for the Biden administration, facing a contentious election where mistakes could be exploited by opponents.

Despite American aversion to foreign wars and spending abroad, Nader noted Washington’s commitment to supporting regional allies, particularly Israel.

Dr. Hilal Khashan from the American University of Beirut explained that US mediation between Israel and Lebanon is influenced by concerns about how war would impact US President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, potentially forcing US support for Israel in conflict scenarios.

Khashan pointed out that while France plays a minimal role in the region, the US remains pivotal in shaping Lebanese political outcomes.

The US collaborates with France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt in a committee seeking to resolve Lebanon’s presidential vacuum, yet ongoing differences among political parties hampers progress towards a consensus candidate.

Moreover, Washington continues to prioritize assistance to the Lebanese army, aiming to counter Hezbollah’s influence, with substantial aid contributions since 2006, including recent support to improve salaries.