US Politically Recognizes Kurdish-led Administration

A US military vehicle near an oil well in northeastern Syria. AFP file photo
A US military vehicle near an oil well in northeastern Syria. AFP file photo
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US Politically Recognizes Kurdish-led Administration

A US military vehicle near an oil well in northeastern Syria. AFP file photo
A US military vehicle near an oil well in northeastern Syria. AFP file photo

US President Donald Trump’s approval for an American company to sign an agreement with the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces on oil investment in northeast Syria is a political step for “recognition” of a Kurdish self-administration in the region, a Syrian Kurdish official said.

The official considered that the US move would contribute to encouraging the Syrian Kurdish-controlled city of Qamishli to move further away from Damascus.

“The agreement has a huge political significance,” he said, considering it as a “recognition” of the Kurdish administration.

“It also limits concerns on a possible surprise US pullout from east of the Euphrates,” the official added.

Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham told the Senate on Thursday in the presence of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that SDF General Commander Mazloum Abdi informed him during a phone conversation that the SDF has signed the deal with the American oil company.

In response, Pompeo noted that “the deal took a little longer than we had hoped.”

“We are now in implementation,” he said.

Asharq Al-Awsat learned that Abdi confirmed to Graham that the deal was made by Delta Crescent Energy LLC.

Graham had played a huge role in convincing Trump to keep US troops east of the Euphrates after he announced a partial troop withdrawal from Syria last year.

Trump said in October that a small number of US troops would remain in the area of Syria “where they have the oil,” a reference to oilfields in the Kurdish-controlled region.

“Oil is secured,” he said.

A few days later, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said: “We are now taking some actions... to strengthen our position at Deir Ezzor, to ensure that we can deny ISIS access to the oil fields.”

Under the new oil deal with the SDF, the United States was going to supply two refineries to the area of the Euphrates to produce around 20,000 barrels of oil per day and satisfy part of the oil-rich region’s needs.

Currently Syria produces around 60,000 bpd. Before the war that erupted in 2011, the country produced 360,000 bpd.

The US has expressed determination to stop both Damascus and Moscow from controlling oil reserves in northeastern Syria.

About 300 men working for a Kremlin-linked Russian private military firm were killed in US airstrikes in February 2018 near the Syrian town of Khasham.

"I can promise you that the 300 Russians who were in Syria and who took action that threatened America who are no longer on this planet understand that, too," Pompeo told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Thursday.

Analysts believe that the Trump administration wants to use the oil deal in addition to its latest sanctions on the Syrian regime to pressure Damascus and Moscow to accept several conditions, including “stopping support for terrorism and cutting military ties with Iran and its militias.”

Other conditions include stopping aggression on neighboring countries, giving up weapons of mass destruction, implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254 to allow for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees and holding accountable those responsible for war crimes.

The new oil agreement is expected to anger Turkey, which rejects the formation of a Kurdish entity in northern Syria. Damascus is also expected to express reservations on the deal because it would worsen its economic crisis and would give Kurds the upper hand in any negotiations between them and the Assad regime.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia.  Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia. Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia.  Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
FILED - 05 February 2013, Russia, Sochi: The Gasprom logo is seen at a new power plant in Sochi, Russia. Photo: Jan Woitas/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa

Russian President Vladimir Putin met Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in the Kremlin on Sunday, a rare visit by a European Union leader to Moscow as a contract allowing for Russian gas to transit through Ukraine nears expiry.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had said on Thursday that Kyiv could consider continued transit of Russian gas, but only on condition that Moscow did not receive payment until after the war - a condition it was unlikely to accept, Reuters said.
Putin said that day that it was clear there would be no new deal with Kyiv to send Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and whom will be affected most.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-19.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow has lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which spurred the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - which is now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Russia's overall gas exports via the route have held steady despite the
stoppage
of flows from Gazprom to Austria's OMV in mid-November over a contractual dispute, and legal wranglings as other buyers stepped in to buy the volumes.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
The Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but began taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Turkey under the Black Sea. Turkey sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they will not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for high transit fees imposed on alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees per year from Russian gas transit.
According to Reuters calculations, Gazprom's total pipeline gas exports to Europe via all routes in 2024 have increased to 32 bcm from 28.3 bcm in 2023, when they collapsed to the lowest level since the 1970s.
Russia could earn around $5 billion on sales via Ukraine this year based on an average Russian government gas price forecast of $339 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss of EU gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it will not do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
Hungary
has been keen to keep the Ukrainian route open, but said it would continue to receive Russian gas from the south, via the TurkStream pipeline on the bed of the Black Sea.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal.
A senior source at Azeri energy company SOCAR told Reuters on Friday that Moscow and Kyiv have failed to agree on the deal brokered by Azerbaijan to continue Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine.