How Does the Lebanon Disaster Impact Syria?

An aerial view of ruined structures at the port, damaged by an explosion a day earlier, on August 5, 2020 in Beirut, Lebanon. (Getty Images)
An aerial view of ruined structures at the port, damaged by an explosion a day earlier, on August 5, 2020 in Beirut, Lebanon. (Getty Images)
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How Does the Lebanon Disaster Impact Syria?

An aerial view of ruined structures at the port, damaged by an explosion a day earlier, on August 5, 2020 in Beirut, Lebanon. (Getty Images)
An aerial view of ruined structures at the port, damaged by an explosion a day earlier, on August 5, 2020 in Beirut, Lebanon. (Getty Images)

The impact of the Beirut blast on Damascus will not be limited to direct losses, such as victims and material damage to Syrians living in Lebanon, but it will reach the political, economic and military spheres.

As the debris and dust began to settle over the scene of massive devastation at Beirut port and the surrounding areas, Lebanese officials again began to bring up the issue of Syrian refugees in Lebanon whose numbers exceed 1 million. Many have again called on them to return to their homes, holding them responsible for Lebanon’s crises or using them as negotiations pawns with western countries. Some officials have threatened to allow them to migrate to Europe should the situation in Lebanon deteriorate further. All this while they have neglected to mention that Syrian workers had immediately headed to the blast site soon after the explosion to help in rescuing the wounded and removing the rubble.

Some Lebanese officials have even linked the ammonium nitrate, which was stored at the port and that caused the blast, to Syria. They claimed that it was being stored there ahead of transporting it to armed factions in Syria. Others said they were going to be transported to regime forces and their allies to be used in their military operations. Both claims have a common factor: The stockpile was being kept in the Lebanese port to be used in the nine-year Syrian conflict - a war that every Lebanese side has exploited to further their own interests.

In both Damascus and Beirut, some parties believe that the blast may open doors that have been shut. They said the explosion would force sides that are advocating Damascus’ economic and political isolation to open new paths with the regime from the humanitarian angle. The first signs of such a move came to light when the Syrian presidency announced that President Bashar Assad had contacted his Lebanese counterpart Michel Aoun to stress Syria’s support for “fraternal Lebanon and its resistant people. We are confident that you can overcome the impact of this tragic development and embark on reconstruction as soon as possible.”

After this message of compassion, it was clear that there are hopes that the Lebanese catastrophe could be exploited to reach a breakthrough with European and western powers over sanctions imposed on Damascus and the diplomatic and political isolation is its facing.

There is also another opportunity to be exploited: With Beirut port out of service, the search is now on for an alternative that would be used for Syria and Lebanon’s reconstruction. Syria’s Latakia port could be one possibility. How? It is the only crossing on the Turkish border that is used to deliver humanitarian aid to northern Syria. Beirut port was used to deliver relief to Damascus. With it now out of the picture, other crossings that can handle large shipments are being considered. The United Nations had declared soon after the Beirut blast that the development will negatively affect aid to Syria.

Some parties are pushing for Latakia to serve as the alternative. The port is located near a Russian military base that is being eyed by an Iranian company. There is no doubt that Moscow will push for a Syrian port to act as an alternative in an attempt to reach a breakthrough in the wall of Syria’s isolation.

Such a move will complicate western efforts that want to support Lebanon in wake of the catastrophe, while also avoiding the normalization of relations between Beirut and Damascus. New tensions over this file are on the horizon between regional and international forces.

As for military repercussions, calls for calm in the fighting in Syria may arise in wake of the Beirut blast. On the other hand, some sides may take advantage of countries’ preoccupation with Lebanon to settle scores in Syria. However, this all depends on just how much the blast affected Hezbollah. Some parties are attempting to use the disaster to apply more pressure on the party. The movement was already under pressure from the stifling Lebanese economic crisis and the response to Israel’s assassination of one of its members in Damascus. Now it is coming under more pressure.

In all likelihood the party will now be preoccupied in the near and not so distant future with the Beirut blast and the upcoming international tribunal indictment over the assassination of Lebanese former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Some parties believe that these developments may prompt Hezbollah to reassess its calculations in Syria. Others believe that Russian pressure on the party will come into play in compliance with American and Israeli demands to have it withdraw its members from the Golan Heights, Daraa and Sweida in southern Syria.

Furthermore, some western analysts believe that Israel may exploit the new equation in Lebanon to increase its attacks against Iranian positions in Syria to avoid any strategic entrenchment on its northern front as the November 3 American elections draw near. All of this could lead matters to spiral out of control of the hands of major players who can contain the developments in Syria and Lebanon.



Syria’s Al-Qusayr Celebrates Eid al-Fitr without Hezbollah for First Time in Years

People perform Eid Al-Fitr prayers in Al-Qusayr. (Sami Volunteer Team)
People perform Eid Al-Fitr prayers in Al-Qusayr. (Sami Volunteer Team)
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Syria’s Al-Qusayr Celebrates Eid al-Fitr without Hezbollah for First Time in Years

People perform Eid Al-Fitr prayers in Al-Qusayr. (Sami Volunteer Team)
People perform Eid Al-Fitr prayers in Al-Qusayr. (Sami Volunteer Team)

Amid the devastation, thousands of residents of Syria’s Al-Qusayr performed Eid Al-Fitr prayers in the northern district square—the site where the city’s first protest against President Bashar al-Assad’s rule erupted in 2011.

For the first time in Al-Qusayr’s history, Eid prayers were held in a public square. It was also the first mass gathering of residents in an open space in 13 years, following a war that destroyed 70% of the city, displaced its people, and led to its capture by Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Syrian regime forces.

Al-Qusayr, a region located near the Lebanese border, was once Hezbollah’s most significant stronghold in Syria. The group withdrew after the fall of the Syrian regime in December, but its loyalists and affiliated locals remained, along with residents of several border villages that have seen sporadic clashes in recent months.

The most intense fighting occurred in February, when Syrian forces launched a military operation that pushed them into Lebanese territory and deployed troops to seal off illegal border crossings.

Tensions flared again two weeks ago after Syrian soldiers were killed in the border region, triggering an exchange of artillery fire between the two sides.

The clashes left casualties on both ends and forced the displacement of border village residents before a ceasefire was reached with the Lebanese army.

The agreement included the closure of four illegal crossings in an effort to curb the smuggling of weapons and drugs, a trade that has flourished over the past decade under the former regime.

As soon as the regime fell, refugees from Al-Qusayr living in Lebanese camps began returning to their hometown. Hundreds arrived to find their homes completely destroyed, forcing them to set up tents beside the ruins while they rebuilt or searched for alternative housing.

The residents of Al-Qusayr resumed their communal Eid traditions after Ramadan. (Sami Volunteer Team)

The large turnout for Eid prayers underscored the scale of the return.

Journalist Ahmed al-Qasir, who recently came back, estimated that about 65% of those displaced have now returned. Before the uprising, Al-Qusayr had a population of around 150,000, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Shahin, 30, who returned in 2018, described the city as a wasteland at the time, despite some 20,000 people having already come back.

“Hezbollah, regime militias, and smugglers controlled the area. There were no real markets, just small shops. Everything was in ruins—schools, clinics, hospitals,” he said.

Residents had to travel 30 kilometers to Homs for basic necessities, enduring regime checkpoints that extorted money along the way.

With the fall of Assad’s regime and Hezbollah’s withdrawal, life in Al-Qusayr has slowly begun to return to normal. Since the start of Ramadan, markets have reopened despite widespread destruction, poverty, and hardship.

On the eve of Eid, the city’s streets buzzed with late-night shopping, Shahin noted.

“Al-Qusayr is finally regaining its role as the region’s commercial hub,” he said.

According to a survey by the Sami Volunteer Team, more than 30,000 refugees returned to Al-Qusayr and its countryside within the first month of the regime’s collapse.

That number is believed to have doubled over the past four months, and team organizers expect it to rise further once the school year ends.

Zaid Harba, a member of the 40-person volunteer group, said most returnees came from refugee camps in Lebanon, while fewer arrived from displacement camps in northern Syria.

Many families there are waiting for the academic year to conclude before arranging their return.