Tunisian Confederation of Industry: Authorities Should Announce Economic State of Emergency

An elderly man wearing a face mask due to the COVID-19 pandemic at the central market in Tunis. AFP file photo
An elderly man wearing a face mask due to the COVID-19 pandemic at the central market in Tunis. AFP file photo
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Tunisian Confederation of Industry: Authorities Should Announce Economic State of Emergency

An elderly man wearing a face mask due to the COVID-19 pandemic at the central market in Tunis. AFP file photo
An elderly man wearing a face mask due to the COVID-19 pandemic at the central market in Tunis. AFP file photo

The President of the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts, Samir Majoul, called on the government to activate the state of emergency to salvage the economy.

Earlier, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) predicted a sharp economic contraction during Q2 of 2020, ranging between 10 and 12 percent, with the unemployment rate predicted to increase to 21.6 percent, a rise of no less than 274,500 unemployed citizens.

Majoul called for creating the necessary conditions to revive the economy by expediting major reforms, boost development and support all sectors.

This year, the Tunisian economy recorded its worst result since 1997, and the head of National Institute of Statistics, Adnen Lassoued, revealed that the economy fell over 21 percent.

The contraction hit major sectors, affecting mainly the service industry.

Hotels, restaurants, and cafes contracted 77.5 percent and the transport sector 51.4 percent, in addition to the 15.8 percent contraction of the non-marketed service sector, mainly paid by the administration.

Meanwhile, the added value of industries dropped 27 percent due to the noticeable decline in the production of exported industries, similar to the textile and clothing sector, which suffered the largest loss of 42 percent.

The exports of the mechanical and electrical industries decreased 35.9 percent, and the added value of the building materials saw a significant decline of 38.4 percent, following the sharp drop in construction.

Economic and financial experts believe an economic recovery depends on the ability to control the coronavirus pandemic in Tunisia and its partner European countries.

Tunisian economist Ezzeddine Saidane stressed that overcoming the economic downturn requires large financial resources that the country does not possess over the authorities’ failure to resort to the international financial market as a result of the continuous reduction of the credit rating since 2011.

Saidane noted that relying on local resources requires exceptional solutions, such as adopting a different monetary policy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was not satisfied with this financial policy that directed development and investment funds to bridge the budget deficit over the past years.

He said that this policy puts the Tunisian economy in a vicious circle.



How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
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How Will Gulf Stock Markets Perform this Summer?

Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)
Saudi Stock Market (Tadawul) (AFP)

Financial analysts and market experts predict a downturn for Gulf stock markets this summer. They foresee lower stock values, reduced trading volumes, sectoral stagnation, delayed investment decisions, and a focus on holding strong positions in high-performing large-cap stocks.

This trend is driven by the majority of traders taking their annual vacations during this period. Typically, sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality see seasonal growth in summer.

From the start of 2024 to mid-year, Gulf markets have shown mixed results. Muscat Securities Market rose by 3.8%, Bahrain Bourse by 3.5%, and Kuwait Stock Exchange by 1.33%. However, Qatar Stock Exchange dropped by 8.02%, Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange by 5.4%, Saudi Arabia’s main index by 1.99%, and Dubai Financial Market slightly by 0.7%.

Tareq Al-Ateeq, a financial analyst, told Asharq Al-Awsat that investor behavior across Gulf markets tends to align during summer due to holiday seasons and high temperatures, leading to lower liquidity and fluctuating market indices.

Investors are delaying decisions until summer ends, focusing on robust positions in large-cap and defensive stocks, which is expected to dampen market liquidity and activity in July and August 2024.

Certain sectors like travel, tourism, aviation, and hospitality are anticipated to see increased trading during the summer. Some investors aim to capitalize on market downturns by adjusting their sector allocations.

In 2023, markets like Dubai saw a 6% monthly increase, with Saudi Arabia's market index rising by 4%. Oman also experienced a 3.1% increase, while Qatar and Bahrain markets declined by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively.

Key sectors such as consumer goods, utilities, tourism, hospitality, and energy are showing increased trading activity and interest during the summer season.