Amman Tripartite Summit: First Step towards New Middle East

Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
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Amman Tripartite Summit: First Step towards New Middle East

Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)
Jordan's King Abdullah II, center, arrives with Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, left, and Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi, right, ahead of the summit in the capital Amman. (Jordanian Royal Palace – AFP)

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi received an unprecedented warm welcome when he landed in the Jordanian capital Amman on Tuesday. King Abdullah II swept aside protocols and personally received the premier at the airport.

The Iraqi PM was in Jordan for a tripartite summit that included King Abdullah and Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi.

Kadhimi, who had just returned from a successful visit to the United States, was seeking to employ Iraq’s financial and human resources to boost the concept of partnership and veer away from pervious government’s reliance on bilateral cooperation with Iran and Turkey, said sources close to the premier. Such a dependence has kept Iraq away from its Arab fold: Iraq’s trade balance with Turkey is estimated at 10 to 12 billion dollars annually and 8 to ten billion dollars with Iran, while the balance is at a meager 2 billion with Saudi Arabia and hardly any better with Egypt and Jordan.

The signs of a new chapter of Iraqi relations with its Arab neighbors first emerged with the formation of the Iraqi-Saudi coordination council during the term of former Iraqi PM Haidar al-Abadi. These relations were boosted with his successor, Adel Abdul Mahdi, before he encountered numerous challenges, notably massive popular protests that led to his resignation in late 2019. Abdul Mahdi had held summits with King Abdullah and Sisi in each of Cairo and Amman, but circumstances worked against him and the meetings never yielded any significant results.

Kadhimi will now try to pick up from where his successors left off. He has just returned with great American political and economic support and sought to propose the project of a “new Middle East”. This project will follow European example, whereby capital and technology would flow more freely.

Member of the Iraqi parliamentary foreign relations committee, Dr. Dhafer al-Ani said the tripartite cooperation between Baghdad, Amman and Cairo was not born yesterday, but dates back to several years.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Iraq needs the Arab fold, which would empower it in confronting regional problems from Iran and Turkey.” He added that no outstanding years-long unresolved issues exist between Iraq, Jordan and Egypt, which will facilitate the process of bolstering their relations.

In fact, he continued, Jordan and Egypt are both looking forward to striking promising economic and oil deals with Iraq. Iraq has always provided them with their oil needs. Cairo and Amman, in turn, view Baghdad as an important strategic partner in the region.

The tripartite summit may yield political and economic results if Iraq were to open up economically, which will in turn open up political opportunities and boost its Arab standing.

Iraqi MP Aras Habib Karim told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iraq needs to adopt a policy of regional and international openness that prioritizes its national interest, especially when it comes to economic, energy and investment affairs.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.