Analysts: Mutating Terror Threat Still Looms over Europe

French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Analysts: Mutating Terror Threat Still Looms over Europe

French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

The terrorist threat against Europe has mutated in the last half-decade as militant groups have seen their Middle East sanctuaries eroded, but analysts say the West must remain braced for more attacks.

Both Al-Qaeda and ISIS -- together responsible for the highest-profile and most horrific terror attacks of the past two decades -- have lost potency as global organizations.

Despite splintering into branches and franchises, their murderous ideology is still able to inspire individuals to carry out random attacks in their name.

Next week in Paris, 14 people face trial over the massacres in January 2015 at satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, a policewoman and hostages in a Jewish supermarket -- violence claimed for both ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

The murderous shooting spree heralded an unprecedented wave of attacks in France.

The deadliest were the coordinated attacks in Paris on November 13 that year at the Bataclan music venue and other venues, when gunmen killed 130 in a plan stemming from the ISIS group's core leadership in Syria.

Experts believe the same style of assault would be unlikely to recur now, not least because ISIS has seen a dramatic loss of its territory and membership in Iraq and Syria.

More typical this year were "isolated individuals who were not spotted by the intelligence services... and their limited or even non-existent contacts with identified militant networks," a source in the French anti-terror prosecutors' office told AFP.

Since 2015, France has seen 17 crimes classified as acts of terror.

Three took place in 2020, none of which were claimed by the terror groups but were instead perpetrated by isolated individuals suffering from psychological problems.

But anti-terror prosecutors still see signs of operational coordination, including "networks of false documents and funding," the source said.

Seth Jones, director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said that in recent years, US and other military operations had "decimated" the ISIS external operations network, killing or capturing many of its key operational leaders.

Its military rout and the loss of territory ISIS had declared as a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria have also diminished its status, and the motivation for individuals to carry out attacks in its name.

It remains possible that Al-Qaeda could carry out a major attack in Europe, Jones said, either directly or through individuals inspired by its ideology, though this was "not a high probability".

The Covid-19 pandemic may have taken some focus off terrorism for security forces worldwide.

But it has also complicated the task of the extremists, who have been active on a local level but very cautious about ranging further afield.

"In general, the short-term terrorist threat has risen in conflict zones and fallen in non-conflict zones," a UN report said in mid-July.

Plots continue to emerge, however.

German authorities said in April they had foiled a plot to target American military installations, and arrested five Tajiks suspected of acting in the name of ISIS.

Another source of risk comes from individuals released from jail in Europe or freed or escaped from Kurdish-controlled prisons in northern Syria where they have been held since ISIS was defeated.

Jean-Charles Brisard, head of the France-based Center for the Analysis of Terrorism (CAT), told AFP he did not rule out a new targeted action by ISIS, pointing to recent attacks foiled in Europe.

"The next cycle will be that of those who are leaving jail," he said.

The CAT has established that 60 percent of prisoners in France convicted over their actions in past conflicts in Bosnia, Iraq or Afghanistan reoffended violently after their release.

A French security source, who asked not to be named, said West Africa is a particular concern after France's forces deployed in the region in June killed the head of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Abdelmalek Droukdel.

Eight people, including six young French aid workers, were killed in a suspected militant raid on August 9 in Niger but no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

"I find it more likely that AQIM will conduct a revenge attack against French forces or other French targets in Africa -- including North and West Africa -- than in France itself," said Jones. "It is easier for the group to operate in Africa."



Vance Criticizes Germany’s Free Speech Laws in Remarks to Conservatives

 Vice President JD Vance, speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2025, at the National Harbor, in Oxon Hill, Md., Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. (AP)
Vice President JD Vance, speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2025, at the National Harbor, in Oxon Hill, Md., Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. (AP)
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Vance Criticizes Germany’s Free Speech Laws in Remarks to Conservatives

 Vice President JD Vance, speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2025, at the National Harbor, in Oxon Hill, Md., Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. (AP)
Vice President JD Vance, speaks during the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC 2025, at the National Harbor, in Oxon Hill, Md., Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. (AP)

US Vice President JD Vance has criticized Germany's free speech laws during an appearance at a conservative gathering outside Washington, linking the country's limits against hate speech to American troops stationed there.

German law sets restrictions on free speech, including the long-standing ban on Holocaust denial and any glorification of the country's Nazi past.

The limits are an effort to curb extremism and incitement, and have led to authorities policing the internet for hate speech and arresting the people allegedly posting, and reposting, such comments.

“There are thousands upon thousands of American troops in Germany today. Do you think that the American taxpayer is going to stand for that, if you get thrown in jail in Germany for posting a mean tweet? Of course they’re not,” Vance told activists gathered Thursday at the Conservative Political Action Conference.

There are nearly 84,000 US service members in the European Theater, according to the US Department of Defense. The figure fluctuates, however, and has increased since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war on Feb. 24, 2022.

The US military is stationed throughout Germany, according to US European Command, including at Ramstein Air Base. A count of US service members in Germany wasn't immediately available on Friday.

Vance's remarks followed his speech earlier this month at the Munich Security Conference, where he lectured European leaders about the state of democracy and free speech across the continent. His comments were met with rebukes from multiple European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

“Obviously we’re going to continue to have important alliances with Europe,” Vance told CPAC moderator Mercedes Schlapp. “But I really do think the strength of those alliances is doing to depend on whether we take our societies in the right direction.”

Vance then claimed that “Germany’s entire defense is subsidized by the American taxpayers.”