Analysts: Mutating Terror Threat Still Looms over Europe

French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Analysts: Mutating Terror Threat Still Looms over Europe

French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

The terrorist threat against Europe has mutated in the last half-decade as militant groups have seen their Middle East sanctuaries eroded, but analysts say the West must remain braced for more attacks.

Both Al-Qaeda and ISIS -- together responsible for the highest-profile and most horrific terror attacks of the past two decades -- have lost potency as global organizations.

Despite splintering into branches and franchises, their murderous ideology is still able to inspire individuals to carry out random attacks in their name.

Next week in Paris, 14 people face trial over the massacres in January 2015 at satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, a policewoman and hostages in a Jewish supermarket -- violence claimed for both ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

The murderous shooting spree heralded an unprecedented wave of attacks in France.

The deadliest were the coordinated attacks in Paris on November 13 that year at the Bataclan music venue and other venues, when gunmen killed 130 in a plan stemming from the ISIS group's core leadership in Syria.

Experts believe the same style of assault would be unlikely to recur now, not least because ISIS has seen a dramatic loss of its territory and membership in Iraq and Syria.

More typical this year were "isolated individuals who were not spotted by the intelligence services... and their limited or even non-existent contacts with identified militant networks," a source in the French anti-terror prosecutors' office told AFP.

Since 2015, France has seen 17 crimes classified as acts of terror.

Three took place in 2020, none of which were claimed by the terror groups but were instead perpetrated by isolated individuals suffering from psychological problems.

But anti-terror prosecutors still see signs of operational coordination, including "networks of false documents and funding," the source said.

Seth Jones, director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said that in recent years, US and other military operations had "decimated" the ISIS external operations network, killing or capturing many of its key operational leaders.

Its military rout and the loss of territory ISIS had declared as a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria have also diminished its status, and the motivation for individuals to carry out attacks in its name.

It remains possible that Al-Qaeda could carry out a major attack in Europe, Jones said, either directly or through individuals inspired by its ideology, though this was "not a high probability".

The Covid-19 pandemic may have taken some focus off terrorism for security forces worldwide.

But it has also complicated the task of the extremists, who have been active on a local level but very cautious about ranging further afield.

"In general, the short-term terrorist threat has risen in conflict zones and fallen in non-conflict zones," a UN report said in mid-July.

Plots continue to emerge, however.

German authorities said in April they had foiled a plot to target American military installations, and arrested five Tajiks suspected of acting in the name of ISIS.

Another source of risk comes from individuals released from jail in Europe or freed or escaped from Kurdish-controlled prisons in northern Syria where they have been held since ISIS was defeated.

Jean-Charles Brisard, head of the France-based Center for the Analysis of Terrorism (CAT), told AFP he did not rule out a new targeted action by ISIS, pointing to recent attacks foiled in Europe.

"The next cycle will be that of those who are leaving jail," he said.

The CAT has established that 60 percent of prisoners in France convicted over their actions in past conflicts in Bosnia, Iraq or Afghanistan reoffended violently after their release.

A French security source, who asked not to be named, said West Africa is a particular concern after France's forces deployed in the region in June killed the head of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Abdelmalek Droukdel.

Eight people, including six young French aid workers, were killed in a suspected militant raid on August 9 in Niger but no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

"I find it more likely that AQIM will conduct a revenge attack against French forces or other French targets in Africa -- including North and West Africa -- than in France itself," said Jones. "It is easier for the group to operate in Africa."



Team of US Troops Supporting a Missile Defense System Arrives in Israel

 This image provided by the US Air Force shows the US Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launching station preparing to load onto a 4th Airlift Squadron C-17 Globemaster III at Fort Bliss, Texas, Feb. 23, 2019. (Staff Sgt. Cory D. Payne/US Air Force via AP)
This image provided by the US Air Force shows the US Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launching station preparing to load onto a 4th Airlift Squadron C-17 Globemaster III at Fort Bliss, Texas, Feb. 23, 2019. (Staff Sgt. Cory D. Payne/US Air Force via AP)
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Team of US Troops Supporting a Missile Defense System Arrives in Israel

 This image provided by the US Air Force shows the US Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launching station preparing to load onto a 4th Airlift Squadron C-17 Globemaster III at Fort Bliss, Texas, Feb. 23, 2019. (Staff Sgt. Cory D. Payne/US Air Force via AP)
This image provided by the US Air Force shows the US Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) launching station preparing to load onto a 4th Airlift Squadron C-17 Globemaster III at Fort Bliss, Texas, Feb. 23, 2019. (Staff Sgt. Cory D. Payne/US Air Force via AP)

A team of American troops supporting a missile defense system in Israel has arrived in the country, the US military said.

A statement from Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder announced the team’s arrival in Israel on Monday.  

They will operate a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense battery there to defend against ballistic missile attacks from Iran.  

Tehran has launched two missile attacks on Israel as the wars in Gaza and Lebanon rage.

“Over the coming days, additional US military personnel and THAAD battery components will continue to arrive in Israel,” Ryder said. “The battery will be fully operational capable in the near future, but for operations security reasons we will not discuss timelines.”

Iran has warned US troops would be in harm’s way if Iran launches another attack on Israel.

The Biden administration believes it has won assurances from Israel that it will not hit Iranian nuclear or oil sites as it looks to strike back following Iran's missile barrage earlier this month, two US officials said Tuesday.

The administration also believes that sending the THAAD battery to Israel and roughly 100 soldiers to operate it has eased some of Israel’s concerns about possible Iranian retaliation and general security issues.

However, the US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private diplomatic discussions, cautioned that the assurance is not iron-clad and that circumstances could change.  

The officials also noted that Israel’s track record on fulfilling assurances in the past is mixed and has often reflected domestic Israeli politics that have upended Washington’s expectations.