Analysts: Mutating Terror Threat Still Looms over Europe

French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
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Analysts: Mutating Terror Threat Still Looms over Europe

French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
French police with protective shields walk in line near the Bataclan concert hall following fatal shootings in Paris, France, November 14, 2015. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

The terrorist threat against Europe has mutated in the last half-decade as militant groups have seen their Middle East sanctuaries eroded, but analysts say the West must remain braced for more attacks.

Both Al-Qaeda and ISIS -- together responsible for the highest-profile and most horrific terror attacks of the past two decades -- have lost potency as global organizations.

Despite splintering into branches and franchises, their murderous ideology is still able to inspire individuals to carry out random attacks in their name.

Next week in Paris, 14 people face trial over the massacres in January 2015 at satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, a policewoman and hostages in a Jewish supermarket -- violence claimed for both ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

The murderous shooting spree heralded an unprecedented wave of attacks in France.

The deadliest were the coordinated attacks in Paris on November 13 that year at the Bataclan music venue and other venues, when gunmen killed 130 in a plan stemming from the ISIS group's core leadership in Syria.

Experts believe the same style of assault would be unlikely to recur now, not least because ISIS has seen a dramatic loss of its territory and membership in Iraq and Syria.

More typical this year were "isolated individuals who were not spotted by the intelligence services... and their limited or even non-existent contacts with identified militant networks," a source in the French anti-terror prosecutors' office told AFP.

Since 2015, France has seen 17 crimes classified as acts of terror.

Three took place in 2020, none of which were claimed by the terror groups but were instead perpetrated by isolated individuals suffering from psychological problems.

But anti-terror prosecutors still see signs of operational coordination, including "networks of false documents and funding," the source said.

Seth Jones, director of the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said that in recent years, US and other military operations had "decimated" the ISIS external operations network, killing or capturing many of its key operational leaders.

Its military rout and the loss of territory ISIS had declared as a “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria have also diminished its status, and the motivation for individuals to carry out attacks in its name.

It remains possible that Al-Qaeda could carry out a major attack in Europe, Jones said, either directly or through individuals inspired by its ideology, though this was "not a high probability".

The Covid-19 pandemic may have taken some focus off terrorism for security forces worldwide.

But it has also complicated the task of the extremists, who have been active on a local level but very cautious about ranging further afield.

"In general, the short-term terrorist threat has risen in conflict zones and fallen in non-conflict zones," a UN report said in mid-July.

Plots continue to emerge, however.

German authorities said in April they had foiled a plot to target American military installations, and arrested five Tajiks suspected of acting in the name of ISIS.

Another source of risk comes from individuals released from jail in Europe or freed or escaped from Kurdish-controlled prisons in northern Syria where they have been held since ISIS was defeated.

Jean-Charles Brisard, head of the France-based Center for the Analysis of Terrorism (CAT), told AFP he did not rule out a new targeted action by ISIS, pointing to recent attacks foiled in Europe.

"The next cycle will be that of those who are leaving jail," he said.

The CAT has established that 60 percent of prisoners in France convicted over their actions in past conflicts in Bosnia, Iraq or Afghanistan reoffended violently after their release.

A French security source, who asked not to be named, said West Africa is a particular concern after France's forces deployed in the region in June killed the head of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Abdelmalek Droukdel.

Eight people, including six young French aid workers, were killed in a suspected militant raid on August 9 in Niger but no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

"I find it more likely that AQIM will conduct a revenge attack against French forces or other French targets in Africa -- including North and West Africa -- than in France itself," said Jones. "It is easier for the group to operate in Africa."



Macron’s Message to Trump: ‘You Can’t Be Weak in the Face of Putin’ 

French President Emmanuel Macron waits for the arrival of guests for a second meeting on Ukraine and European security at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, February 19, 2025. (Reuters)
French President Emmanuel Macron waits for the arrival of guests for a second meeting on Ukraine and European security at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, February 19, 2025. (Reuters)
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Macron’s Message to Trump: ‘You Can’t Be Weak in the Face of Putin’ 

French President Emmanuel Macron waits for the arrival of guests for a second meeting on Ukraine and European security at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, February 19, 2025. (Reuters)
French President Emmanuel Macron waits for the arrival of guests for a second meeting on Ukraine and European security at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, February 19, 2025. (Reuters)

French President Emmanuel Macron said he intends to tell Donald Trump that it's in the joint interest of Americans and Europeans not to “be weak” in the face of Russia's Vladimir Putin amid US-led negotiations to end the almost three-year war in Ukraine.

Macron is to travel to Washington to meet with Trump on Monday, the White House said.

In a one-hour question and answer session on his social media Thursday, Macron said he'll tell Trump: “You can’t be weak in the face of President Putin. It’s not you, it’s not your trademark, it’s not in your interest. How can you then be credible in the face of China if you’re weak in the face of Putin?”

Trump's recent statements that echo Putin's narrative and plans to have direct negotiations with Moscow have left European allies and Ukrainian officials worried. But Macron suggested Trump's strategy to create “uncertainty” in talks with Russia could actually make Western allies stronger in these talks.

Putin “doesn’t know what he (Trump) is going to do, he thinks (Trump) is capable of anything,” Macron said. “This uncertainty is good for us and for Ukraine.”

Macron added he would seek to persuade Trump that US interests and Europeans’ interests are the same, telling him: “If you let Russia take over Ukraine, it would be unstoppable.”

That means any peace deal must be negotiated with Ukrainians and Europeans around the table, Macron reaffirmed.

"We want peace, but we don’t want a ceasefire that means Ukraine surrendering, because that’s dangerous. And we know that would lead to Russia going further. We’ve already experienced it," he said.

Macron also appeared ready to answer Trump's call to boost defense spending. “Us, Europeans, we must increase our war effort,” he said.

Asked about whether he's considering sending French troops to Ukraine, he said he would not send soldiers to fight in Ukraine but rather a security force meant to bring “guarantees” once a peace deal is achieved.

“We don't rule out, within a framework planned with our allies, the possibility of having forces which, once peace has been negotiated, could contribute to guaranteeing Ukraine’s security,” he said.