Lebanon’s Centenary: Reshaping a Country that Can Protect its Remaining Residents

The ceremony marking the proclamation of the Greater Lebanon in Beirut in 1920.
The ceremony marking the proclamation of the Greater Lebanon in Beirut in 1920.
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Lebanon’s Centenary: Reshaping a Country that Can Protect its Remaining Residents

The ceremony marking the proclamation of the Greater Lebanon in Beirut in 1920.
The ceremony marking the proclamation of the Greater Lebanon in Beirut in 1920.

Every article, history book and documentary about the formation of Greater Lebanon is accompanied by the image of General Henri Gouraud at Beirut’s famed Pine Residence on September 1, 1920. The representative of the French Government in the Middle East is photographed seated next to Maronite Patriarch Elias Peter Hoayek to his right and Grand Mufti of Beirut Sheikh Mustafa Naja to his left.

The celebration was the culmination of a long arduous journey by the Maronites in wading through the Eastern Question that had plagued the West throughout the 19th century. Hoayek, the sect’s most prominent leader at the time, demanded that the new Lebanon include Maronites and other sects.

Today the story of how Greater Lebanon was formed seems to belong to a different world as the current Lebanon seems to have preserved very little of its roots. The story of how the map of the new Lebanon was drawn up by joining various provinces (and rejecting others due to sectarian issues) is irrelevant. Irrelevant now are the stories of exiled Lebanese in France and Egypt (such as Beshara al-Khoury, Michel Chiha and Youssef al-Sawada), who worked to reap as much independence from the French and British alike, and steer Lebanon as far away from Prince Faisal’s government in Damascus.

The reconciliation conferences and peace treaties that were held to divide the Ottoman Empire and opting for French mandate over Faisal’s rule are limited to history books because they are contentious issues that the Lebanese, to this very day, are still divided over. Some have speculated over the possible alternatives at the time to the Greater Lebanon, such as remaining part of the Arab Kingdom that Faisal tried to set up in Syria.

Necessity demanded that Hoayek accept to include new provinces to the Lebanon Mutasarrifate. It was said that fears of a repeat of the 1915 famine, which was sparked by the Turks – according to the official Lebanese story – and that is blamed on the Allies who imposed a siege of the empire’s ports – according to the Turkish story, forced the patriarch to include the Bekaa Valley in the new Lebanon. The Bekaa would be seen as the new bread basket for the new country. The inclusion of the North and South each had their own stories for becoming part of Greater Lebanon.

History after geography
After completing its geography, Greater Lebanon needed economic jobs and an independent history that sets it apart from the rest of former Ottoman territories. It was no wonder that the majority of Lebanon’s Phoenician history was “discovered” by Christian Lebanese writers during the French mandate. They believed that relying on French strength and culture in a country that was marching towards independence was unacceptable. It was therefore, pressing to “suggest” a different history to the former Ottoman state. They sought a history several thousands of years old that predates Christianity and Islam – a history that the people can relate to and steers them away as much as possible from the ethnic groups that surround them in the region.

These words do not support Arab nationalist and Baathist claims that Lebanon is an “artificial entity” or a “historic mistake” that is destined to return to its natural fold in the imaginary greater Syria. Everyone must keep in mind that all the countries of the Arab Mashriq, or eastern part of the Arab world, were drawn up by minor French and British colonial officers. This is the case of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Jordan. The crises in this region and the fragmentation of these states are but a late confirmation of the artificial nature of these countries and the instability among its people. Lebanon set itself apart from the region with its semi-democratic system and ability to maintain its identity.

Lebanon’s ability to survive was first based on its history of relations with the West, whether cultural, religious or economic, or through the sectarian civil wars that began in the mid-19th century. The Christians in the Chouf area at the time shed their clan mentality and transformed into a self-aware group under the patronage of the Maronite Patriarchate. Without having to go into the endless debates over Christian “uniqueness” or their political and cultural superiority over their Druze and Muslim neighbors, we must say that the Christian issue found its place among western powers. These powers did not hesitate to benefit from them as they sought to divide the Ottoman Empire.

This story is not enough to justify the Maronites’ political, economic and cultural hegemony over the new Lebanon. It needs a united fabric that unites all people under common goals and values. Instead of writing the histories of regions, sects and Ottoman states, attempts were made to write a national history. The Phoenicians were cited because they built a great naval empire and set up colonies along the coasts of Iberia and Africa. They also created the alphabet. However, the state of affairs along the Lebanese coast in the early 20th century told a different story. They told stories of protests in the mountains and resisting invaders. This is where we can speak of Christian-Druze partnership.

The relations between the mountainous region and coast began to emerge. During the French mandate, the coast was the center of the Lebanese entity. The Muslim merchants who dotted the coast sought refuge in the mountains to escape oppression. They returned to the coast, not to escape sectarian war massacres, but to resume their historic role as global merchants.

After the independence in 1943, the history had to be expanded to include Lebanese who did not leave the coast. Historians, such as Fouad Ephrem Boustany, artists and intellectuals from all fields played a major role in promoting the image of a Lebanon that is open to the world and its surroundings. A Lebanon that embraces a wide moderate political leadership that avoids animosity with any foreign power, except when it comes to defending its nation. It was understood that such a leadership must remain in the hands of the Christians because they were most sophisticated and similar to western culture, and because they were a minority in a sea of Muslims who, according to official accounts, have not abandoned their plan for a united Arab nation.

Here we can cite a number of developments that prove or contradict this view, such as the 1958 limited civil war or the developments of 1969, leading up the clashes between the Lebanese army and Palestinian fighters, with whom the Lebanese Muslims and leftists sided. The 1975-90 civil war ultimately destroyed the old Lebanese state and only ended with the Taef Accord that established a new pact between the Lebanese.

Economy
The Lebanese economy was shaped according to the political powers that emerged during and after the French mandate. It was based on trade, a modern banking system and services, such as tourism and higher education. This system reaped huge benefits at a time when Arab nations were embroiled with their own internal disputes and as the Arab-Israeli conflict emerged. The system’s weakness did not lie in impoverishing the Lebanese society or deepening class divide, especially as politicians sought to take advantage of regional conflicts by attracting foreign capital and Arab oil that began to flow in the 1950s. At the same time, Lebanon preferred to steer clear of the Arab-Israeli conflict, opting for an unofficial neutral position.

This Lebanese example, however, failed to notice that borders could not keep out regional and international crises. The settlement that ended the 1958 “revolt” crumbled before the 1967 war that radically changed the region. The war allowed the armed Palestinian resistance – and the Arab exploitation of this movement – to seep into the fragile Lebanese equation. The Palestinian presence sped up the collapse of the 1943 example, which was already showing cracks. The political and economic systems could no longer meet the demands of the new segments of Lebanese people who were discovering what the state was depriving them of: schools, hospitals and peace amid the late 1960s Israeli attacks against armed Palestinian groups.

Lebanese writers at the time noted a predicament: If Lebanon became increasingly involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict, it will be the weakest link among the Arab countries and will expose itself to destruction. If the left demanded social justice and equality between the people, then the risk of civil war, which can only be sectarian and destroy all of society, will increase. This contradiction remains to this day.

Collapse and rise?
The three decades that followed the end of the civil war in 1990 can be described as repeated attempts of building that took place in the 1920s. They relied on the same economy and culture amid an altered political equation that was imposed by regional and demographic realities. The Christians were no longer “first among equals”, but the Syrian regime’s hegemony was imposed on them and they were treated the same way as a society under occupation. They were forced to become followers and were marginalized. The Christians have not yet forgotten that the Syrians allowed the Muslims, who also took part in humiliating them, to occupy political, economic and cultural posts that were reserved for them before the war.

The collapse of the world the Christians had grown accustomed to, the change in the West’s priorities and the disappearance of the traditional right culture that they relied on in promoting their cultural superiority rendered a failure attempts by their largest movement to restore their former positions. As a consequence, some sought to align themselves with the very force that was at the core of the alliance that defeated them. This was demonstrated in the alignment with the power that emerged as the most powerful in the equation that has ruled Lebanon since the 2005 Syrian troop withdrawal.

This process accelerated the fragmentation that emerged with the end of Lebanon’s economic world in a region whose countries have topped it in fields it used to excel at. Lebanon was no longer a port, university, bank or nightclub. After the Arab revolts and wars, it was no longer a postbox for warring parties or an arena for tensions that have found vaster areas for open conflict. The rampant corruption of every aspect of life in Lebanon is but a sign of the country’s loss of the high standing it enjoyed in the past. It is now controlled by sectarian leaders who are experts at looting public funds at an even greater scale before and during the civil war.

These practices ultimately led to the collapse of the Lebanese state in 2019-20 and its transformation of a failed country where only instruments of violence, internal oppression and sectarianism remain. The state is now limited to preserving itself out of fear of any change in the political system that would dash the “achievements and victories” and “restore the rights of Christians” that some sides of the new alliance drone about.

This has become part of the daily rhetoric in Lebanon. The country is now marking its first centennial as it experiences a low that it had never reached throughout a century that was rife with wars, turbulence and ordeals. Is this really the end of this entity?

The situation in Lebanon is completely bleak and it is scrambling to find a way out of its plight. The people persevere as demonstrated by the millions who are still on this land and finding salvation on their own. These people will not die. They may not have a bright future any time soon without resolving sectarian political problems and disputes over representation in rule and building a new economy. Who are the social powers that have an interest in ending the sectarian equation that has granted a large segment of Lebanese, for long decades, protection from real or illusory dangers posed by other sects?

The October 17, 2019 revolution did not come up with the desired answer. The movements that followed the August 4 Beirut port blast have been met with the stubborn authority that can still stir sectarian sentiments and mobilize its blind followers.

Does this all mean that the story of Lebanon has come to an end? If yes, what is the entity that the people who call themselves Lebanese live in? At any rate, the process of recreating another Lebanon is one that the Lebanese are pinning their hopes on. Some difficult lessons appear necessary, not for the uncaring world or for a message that won’t lead anywhere, but for the Lebanese and their right to live like the other peoples of the world, nothing more.



What to Know about the Protests Shaking Iran as Govt Shuts Down Internet and Phone Networks

Mourners carry coffins during a funeral procession for members of security forces and civilians said to be killed in protests on Sunday, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screengrab from a video released on January 11, 2026.  IRIB/Handout via REUTERS
Mourners carry coffins during a funeral procession for members of security forces and civilians said to be killed in protests on Sunday, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screengrab from a video released on January 11, 2026. IRIB/Handout via REUTERS
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What to Know about the Protests Shaking Iran as Govt Shuts Down Internet and Phone Networks

Mourners carry coffins during a funeral procession for members of security forces and civilians said to be killed in protests on Sunday, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screengrab from a video released on January 11, 2026.  IRIB/Handout via REUTERS
Mourners carry coffins during a funeral procession for members of security forces and civilians said to be killed in protests on Sunday, amid evolving anti-government unrest, in Tehran, Iran, in this screengrab from a video released on January 11, 2026. IRIB/Handout via REUTERS

Nationwide protests in Iran sparked by the country’s ailing economy are putting new pressure on its theocracy as it has shut down the internet and telephone networks.

Tehran is still reeling from a 12-day war launched by Israel in June that saw the United States bomb nuclear sites in Iran. Economic pressure, which has intensified since September when the United Nations reimposed sanctions on the country over its atomic program, has sent Iran's rial currency into a free fall, now trading at over 1.4 million to $1.

Meanwhile, Iran's self-described “Axis of Resistance” — a coalition of countries and militant groups backed by Tehran — has been decimated since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023.

A threat by US President Donald Trump warning Iran that if Tehran “violently kills peaceful protesters” the US “will come to their rescue," has taken on new meaning after American troops captured Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, a longtime ally of Tehran.

“We're watching it very closely,” Trump has warned. “If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they're going to get hit very hard by the United States.”

Here's what to know about the protests and the challenges facing Iran's government.

How widespread the protests are

More than 500 protests have taken place across all of Iran’s 31 provinces, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported early Monday. The death toll had reached at least 544, it said, with more than 10,600 arrests. The group relies on an activist network inside of Iran for its reporting and has been accurate in past unrest.

The Iranian government has not offered overall casualty figures for the demonstrations. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the toll, given that internet and international phone calls are now blocked in Iran.

Understanding the scale of the protests has been difficult. Iranian state media has provided little information about the demonstrations. Online videos offer only brief, shaky glimpses of people in the streets or the sound of gunfire. Journalists in general in Iran also face limits on reporting such as requiring permission to travel around the country, as well as the threat of harassment or arrest by authorities. The internet shutdown has further complicated the situation.

But the protests do not appear to be stopping, even after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said “rioters must be put in their place.”

Why the demonstrations started

The collapse of the rial has led to a widening economic crisis in Iran. Prices are up on meat, rice and other staples of the Iranian dinner table. The nation has been struggling with an annual inflation rate of some 40%.

In December, Iran introduced a new pricing tier for its nationally subsidized gasoline, raising the price of some of the world’s cheapest gas and further pressuring the population. Tehran may seek steeper price increases in the future, as the government now will review prices every three months.

Meanwhile, food prizes are expected to spike after Iran’s Central Bank in recent days ended a preferential, subsidized dollar-rial exchange rate for all products except medicine and wheat.

The protests began in late December with merchants in Tehran before spreading. While initially focused on economic issues, the demonstrations soon saw protesters chanting anti-government statements as well. Anger has been simmering over the years, particularly after the 2022 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody that triggered nationwide demonstrations.

Some have chanted in support of Iran's exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who called for protests Thursday and Friday night.

Iran's alliances are weakened

Iran's “Axis of Resistance," which grew in prominence in the years after the 2003 US-led invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, is reeling.

Israel has crushed Hamas in the devastating war in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah, the Shiite militant group in Lebanon, has seen its top leadership killed by Israel and has been struggling since. A lightning offensive in December 2024 overthrew Iran’s longtime stalwart ally and client in Syria, President Bashar Assad, after years of war there. Yemen's Iranian-backed Houthis also have been pounded by Israeli and US airstrikes.

China meanwhile has remained a major buyer of Iranian crude oil, but hasn't provided overt military support. Neither has Russia, which has relied on Iranian drones in its war on Ukraine.

The West worries about Iran’s nuclear program Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials have increasingly threatened to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran had been enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels before the US attack in June, making it the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Tehran also increasingly cut back its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog, as tensions increased over its nuclear program in recent years. The IAEA's director-general has warned Iran could build as many as 10 nuclear bombs, should it decide to weaponize its program.

US intelligence agencies have assessed that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.”

Iran recently said it was no longer enriching uranium at any site in the country, trying to signal to the West that it remains open to potential negotiations over its atomic program to ease sanctions. But there's been no significant talks in the months since the June war.

Why relations between Iran and the US are so tense

Iran decades ago was one of the United States’ top allies in the Mideast under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah’s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. Then came the Iranian Revolution led by Khomeini, which created Iran’s theocratic government.

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah’s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed.

During the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the US backed Saddam Hussein. During that conflict, the US launched a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea as part of the so-called “Tanker War,” and later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the US military said it mistook for a warplane.

Iran and the US have seesawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since. Relations peaked with the 2015 nuclear deal, which saw Iran greatly limit its program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking tensions in the Mideast that intensified after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.


How the US Could Take Over Greenland and the Potential Challenges

05 February 2025, Greenland, Nuuk: Greenlandic flags fly in front of the Inatsisartut parliament in the capital Nuuk. (dpa)
05 February 2025, Greenland, Nuuk: Greenlandic flags fly in front of the Inatsisartut parliament in the capital Nuuk. (dpa)
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How the US Could Take Over Greenland and the Potential Challenges

05 February 2025, Greenland, Nuuk: Greenlandic flags fly in front of the Inatsisartut parliament in the capital Nuuk. (dpa)
05 February 2025, Greenland, Nuuk: Greenlandic flags fly in front of the Inatsisartut parliament in the capital Nuuk. (dpa)

US President Donald Trump wants to own Greenland. He has repeatedly said the United States must take control of the strategically located and mineral-rich island, which is a semiautonomous region that's part of NATO ally Denmark.

Officials from Denmark, Greenland and the United States met Thursday in Washington and will meet again next week to discuss a renewed push by the White House, which is considering a range of options, including using military force, to acquire the island.

Trump said Friday he is going to do “something on Greenland, whether they like it or not.”

If it's not done “the easy way, we're going to do it the hard way," he said without elaborating what that could entail. In an interview Thursday, he told The New York Times that he wants to own Greenland because “ownership gives you things and elements that you can’t get from just signing a document.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has warned that an American takeover of Greenland would mark the end of NATO, and Greenlanders say they don't want to become part of the US.

This is a look at some of the ways the US could take control of Greenland and the potential challenges.

Military action could alter global relations

Trump and his officials have indicated they want to control Greenland to enhance American security and explore business and mining deals. But Imran Bayoumi, an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said the sudden focus on Greenland is also the result of decades of neglect by several US presidents towards Washington's position in the Arctic.

The current fixation is partly down to “the realization we need to increase our presence in the Arctic, and we don’t yet have the right strategy or vision to do so,” he said.

If the US took control of Greenland by force, it would plunge NATO into a crisis, possibly an existential one.

While Greenland is the largest island in the world, it has a population of around 57,000 and doesn't have its own military. Defense is provided by Denmark, whose military is dwarfed by that of the US.

It's unclear how the remaining members of NATO would respond if the US decided to forcibly take control of the island or if they would come to Denmark's aid.

“If the United States chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops,” Frederiksen has said.

Trump said he needs control of the island to guarantee American security, citing the threat from Russian and Chinese ships in the region, but “it's not true” said Lin Mortensgaard, an expert on the international politics of the Arctic at the Danish Institute for International Studies, or DIIS.

While there are probably Russian submarines — as there are across the Arctic region — there are no surface vessels, Mortensgaard said. China has research vessels in the Central Arctic Ocean, and while the Chinese and Russian militaries have done joint military exercises in the Arctic, they have taken place closer to Alaska, she said.

Bayoumi, of the Atlantic Council, said he doubted Trump would take control of Greenland by force because it’s unpopular with both Democratic and Republican lawmakers, and would likely “fundamentally alter” US relationships with allies worldwide.

The US already has access to Greenland under a 1951 defense agreement, and Denmark and Greenland would be “quite happy” to accommodate a beefed-up American military presence, Mortensgaard said.

For that reason, “blowing up the NATO alliance” for something Trump has already, doesn’t make sense, said Ulrik Pram Gad, an expert on Greenland at DIIS.

Bilateral agreements may assist effort

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a select group of US lawmakers this week that it was the Republican administration’s intention to eventually purchase Greenland, as opposed to using military force. Danish and Greenlandic officials have previously said the island isn't for sale.

It's not clear how much buying the island could cost, or if the US would be buying it from Denmark or Greenland.

Washington also could boost its military presence in Greenland “through cooperation and diplomacy,” without taking it over, Bayoumi said.

One option could be for the US to get a veto over security decisions made by the Greenlandic government, as it has in islands in the Pacific Ocean, Gad said.

Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands have a Compact of Free Association, or COFA, with the US.

That would give Washington the right to operate military bases and make decisions about the islands’ security in exchange for US security guarantees and around $7 billion of yearly economic assistance, according to the Congressional Research Service.

It's not clear how much that would improve upon Washington's current security strategy. The US already operates the remote Pituffik Space Base in northwestern Greenland and can bring as many troops as it wants under existing agreements.

Influence operations expected to fail

Greenlandic politician Aaja Chemnitz told The Associated Press that Greenlanders want more rights, including independence, but don't want to become part of the US.

Gad suggested influence operations to persuade Greenlanders to join the US would likely fail. He said that is because the community on the island is small and the language is “inaccessible.”

Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen summoned the top US official in Denmark in August to complain that “foreign actors” were seeking to influence the country’s future. Danish media reported that at least three people with connections to Trump carried out covert influence operations in Greenland.

Even if the US managed to take control of Greenland, it would likely come with a large bill, Gad said. That’s because Greenlanders currently have Danish citizenship and access to the Danish welfare system, including free health care and schooling.

To match that, “Trump would have to build a welfare state for Greenlanders that he doesn’t want for his own citizens,” Gad said.

Disagreement unlikely to be resolved

Since 1945, the American military presence in Greenland has decreased from thousands of soldiers over 17 bases and installations to 200 at the remote Pituffik Space Base in the northwest of the island, Rasmussen said last year. The base supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance operations for the US and NATO.

US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News on Thursday that Denmark has neglected its missile defense obligations in Greenland, but Mortensgaard said that it makes “little sense to criticize Denmark,” because the main reason why the US operates the Pituffik base in the north of the island is to provide early detection of missiles.

The best outcome for Denmark would be to update the defense agreement, which allows the US to have a military presence on the island and have Trump sign it with a “gold-plated signature,” Gad said.

But he suggested that's unlikely because Greenland is “handy” to the US president.

When Trump wants to change the news agenda — including distracting from domestic political problems — “he can just say the word ‘Greenland’ and this starts all over again,” Gad said.


US Stance on Iran Protests Balances Threats, Caution

Crowds of Iranian protesters gather in Taleghani Square in Karaj, west of Tehran. (Telegram)
Crowds of Iranian protesters gather in Taleghani Square in Karaj, west of Tehran. (Telegram)
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US Stance on Iran Protests Balances Threats, Caution

Crowds of Iranian protesters gather in Taleghani Square in Karaj, west of Tehran. (Telegram)
Crowds of Iranian protesters gather in Taleghani Square in Karaj, west of Tehran. (Telegram)

It may still be premature to say Iran’s ruling system is nearing collapse. Yet the unrest that has gripped the country in recent weeks has pushed Tehran into its most severe internal crisis in years.

Protests triggered by economic freefall and the collapse of the national currency have rapidly spread across regions and social classes, shedding their purely economic character and evolving into a direct challenge to the foundations of the political system.

As strikes have expanded, particularly in the bazaar and the oil sector, popular anger has deepened into a political crisis with existential stakes.

At the heart of these developments, the United States factor stands out as one of the most sensitive and influential elements, not only because of the long history of conflict between Washington and Tehran, but also due to the unprecedented tone adopted by US President Donald Trump, and the political and media reaction within Congress, which has reflected a calibrated division over how to approach the Iranian crisis.

From the early days of the escalating protests, Trump opted to depart from traditional diplomatic language. In a series of interviews and statements, he said he was following events in Iran “very closely,” expressing his belief that the country was “on the verge of collapse.”

More significant than his assessment, however, were his public warnings to the Iranian leadership against continuing to suppress protesters.

Trump spoke bluntly of live fire against unarmed demonstrators, arrests, and executions, describing the situation as “brutal behavior,” and stressing that he had informed Tehran that any bloody escalation would be met with “very severe strikes” from the United States.

This language amounts to an attempt at political and psychological deterrence rather than a declaration of an imminent military plan.

It pressures Iran’s leadership and sends a message of moral support to protesters, while simultaneously preserving ambiguity over the nature of any potential US action.

Vice President JD Vance expressed a similar stance, writing on X that Washington supports anyone exercising their right to peaceful protest, noting that Iran’s system suffers from deep problems.

He reiterated Trump’s call for “real negotiations” over the nuclear program, while leaving future steps to the president’s judgment.

Despite Trump’s clear support for the protests, his administration has so far avoided going further on the question of “the day after.”

This hesitation has been evident in its position on Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s late shah, whose name has resurfaced as a figure of the exiled opposition.

While Trump described him as “a nice person,” he stopped short of holding an official meeting, saying it was still too early to determine who could genuinely represent the will of the Iranian people.

This caution reflects US awareness of the sensitivity of the Iranian scene, in light of past experiences in the region, from Iraq to Libya, where early bets on political alternatives led to disastrous outcomes.

Any overt US backing of a specific opposition figure could also give the Iranian authorities grounds to reinforce their narrative of a “foreign conspiracy,” a line already invoked by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and state media.

Alongside political rhetoric, the economic card occupies a central place in US calculations.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described Iran’s economy as on the edge of collapse, pointing to high inflation and a sharp erosion in living standards due to sanctions and mismanagement.

These remarks were not merely technical assessments, but a political message that Washington sees the economic crisis as a pressure point that could accelerate the erosion of the system’s ability to endure.

The economy is not only the spark that ignited the protests, but also one of the keys to their future. Continued strikes, particularly in the oil sector, threaten the main artery of state revenues, compounding pressure and narrowing room for maneuver.

In this context, Washington appears convinced that time is working against Tehran and that allowing the crisis to play out internally may be more effective than any direct intervention.

Another factor closely watched by US decision-makers is the international stance, notably the silence of Russia and China.

These two countries, which have provided Iran with political and economic cover in recent years, appear unwilling or unable to intervene to rescue the system from its internal crisis.

Their silence gives Washington a wider scope to escalate its rhetoric without fear of a major international confrontation.

At the same time, the US administration is keen to avoid appearing as the driver of regime change in Iran. Its declared support remains confined to an ethical and humanitarian framework, protecting protesters and preventing massacres, rather than shaping an alternative system.

This approach seeks to strike a balance between exploiting an adversary’s weakness and avoiding a slide into chaos.

The US response has not been limited to the White House, extending into Congress, where positions have reflected a disciplined division of opinion. The House Foreign Affairs Committee attacked the Iranian system in a post on X, describing it as a dictator that has stood for decades on the bodies of Iranians demanding change.

Within the Republican camp, alignment behind Trump has been clear.

Senator Lindsey Graham wrote that the president was “absolutely right,” that he “stands with the Iranian people against tyranny,” and called to “make Iran great again.”

Senator Ted Cruz said the protests had exposed the system’s “fatally weakened” status and that Iranians were “not chanting for cosmetic reforms, but for an end to clerical rule.”

Democrats, by contrast, expressed solidarity with protesters in a more cautious tone.

Senator Chris Murphy said Iranians deserve their future in their own hands, not through American bombs, warning that military intervention could undermine the movement.

Bernie Sanders said the United States should stand with human rights, not repeat the mistakes of forcibly changing regimes.

In the House, Representative Yassamin Ansari sparked further debate by voicing support for the Iranian people while warning against empowering the Mujahideen-e-Khalq, which she described as “an extremist group lacking legitimacy.”

Republican lawmakers such as Claudia Tenney and Mario Diaz-Balart adopted a harsher tone, calling for clear support for Iranians, “who are bravely demanding freedom, dignity, and basic human rights.”

This divergence reflects a complex US picture. Republicans see the Iranian moment as an opportunity to validate Trump’s pressure and deterrence strategy, while Democrats fear that verbal support could slide into ill-considered entanglement.

Yet both sides converge on a core point: holding Iran’s system responsible for violence and economic collapse and viewing current events as an unprecedented challenge to its legitimacy.

This relative alignment grants Trump room to maneuver domestically without imposing consensus on intervention.

Washington, as reflected in White House rhetoric and congressional debate, prefers at this stage to watch the fractures within Iran deepen, while keeping all options on the table and awaiting what happens on the streets.