Germany Sees Economy Recovering Faster Than Expected in 2020

Germany Sees Economy Recovering Faster Than Expected in 2020
TT
20

Germany Sees Economy Recovering Faster Than Expected in 2020

Germany Sees Economy Recovering Faster Than Expected in 2020

Germany expects the economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to be less severe this year than originally feared, but sluggish foreign demand is likely to weaken the rebound in Europe's largest economy next year.

Presenting the government's updated forecasts on Tuesday, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said a strong response from the state was helping fuel a quicker than expected recovery from the coronavirus shock.

"The recession in the first half of the year turned out to be less severe than we had feared," Altmaier told reporters, adding that the worst was over for the economy.

"Overall, we can say that at least for now, we are dealing with a V-shaped development," Altmaier said. He added that he did not expect authorities to impose another round of lockdown measures as in March and April.

Confirming an earlier Reuters report, Altmaier said Berlin had revised upwards its 2020 forecast to a decline of 5.8% from a previous estimate of -6.3%.

That would still represent the biggest economic slump since World War Two. The German economy contracted by 5.7% in 2009 as the global financial crisis unfolded.

For 2021, the government revised downward its growth forecast to an expansion of 4.4% from its previous estimate of 5.2%. This means the economy will not reach its pre-pandemic size before early 2022, Altmaier said.

The government expects exports to tumble by 12.1% this year before jumping by 8.8% in 2021. Private consumption is seen falling by 6.9% this year and then rising by 4.7% in 2021.

SUSPENDING DEBT LIMITS

The revised forecasts will form the basis of tax revenue estimates, which the finance ministry is expected to update next week. This will be followed by Finance Minister Olaf Scholz's proposal for the federal government's budget in 2021.

Scholz has already said he will ask parliament to suspend constitutionally enshrined debt limits next year so that the government can plan its 2021 budget with new debt as it sees necessary.

Germany's Bundestag lower house of parliament suspended the debt brake in March and June to allow the government to borrow an additional 217.8 billion euros this year.

The government has launched an unprecedented array of rescue and stimulus measures since March to shield companies and consumers from the initial impact of the pandemic and help them recover as quickly as possible.

The economy contracted by a record 9.7% in the second quarter as consumer spending, company investment, and exports all collapsed.

Germany fared better than some other eurozone economies, however. The French economy contracted by 13.8% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period and Italy's shrank by 12.8%.

The German central bank expects household spending to drive a strong recovery in the third quarter, helped by stimulus measures including a temporary cut in value-added tax. The Ifo economic institute predicts the economy will rebound with a quarterly growth rate of some 7% in July-September.



Egypt, Cyprus Sign Gas Export Deals, Boosting Eastern Mediterranean Energy Cooperation

The logo of Italian energy company Eni is seen at a gas station in Rome, Italy August 16, 2018. (Reuters)
The logo of Italian energy company Eni is seen at a gas station in Rome, Italy August 16, 2018. (Reuters)
TT
20

Egypt, Cyprus Sign Gas Export Deals, Boosting Eastern Mediterranean Energy Cooperation

The logo of Italian energy company Eni is seen at a gas station in Rome, Italy August 16, 2018. (Reuters)
The logo of Italian energy company Eni is seen at a gas station in Rome, Italy August 16, 2018. (Reuters)

Egypt and Cyprus signed agreements on Monday enabling the export of gas from Cyprus's offshore fields to Egypt for liquefaction and re-export to Europe, as both countries seek to bolster the Eastern Mediterranean's role as an energy hub.

The deals signed at the 2025 Egypt Energy Show formalize a long-anticipated plan to link Cypriot reserves to Egypt’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, a move that leverages Egypt’s existing infrastructure to process and ship natural gas to European markets.

Monday's agreements involve gas extracted from one Cypriot site, Cronos Block 6 - now under license to a consortium of Italy's Eni and France's Total - to be processed at Egypt's Zohr facilities before being liquefied at Damietta and exported to Europe.

A second memorandum of understanding outlines a framework of processing gas from Cyprus' offshore Aphrodite field, under license to a Chevron-led consortium, which will also be sent to Egypt for processing.

The east Mediterranean has yielded some major gas discoveries in recent years, while a disruption in energy supplies from Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has sharpened Europe's attention on securing supplies elsewhere.

"The essence of these agreements is not limited to promoting the exploitation of deposits, but broadens the prospects for energy cooperation with Egypt, while contributing to regional stability and strengthening our country's geopolitical position in the Eastern Mediterranean," a statement from Cyprus's Presidency said.

Cypriot officials have previously said they expect gas from Block 6 Cronos to possibly come online in 2026 or 2027. Cronos gas in place is estimated at more than 3 trillion cubic feet (tcf).

Aphrodite holds an estimated 3.5 tcf of gas. Israel's NewMed, a member of the consortium, expects gas to come online in 2031, it said in a stock exchange filing on Sunday.

In a Monday filing update, it said the "non-binding" MoU envisaged that Egypt's national gas company, EGAS, would be the sole buyer of the gas produced from Aphrodite, while the partners would be granted an option to purchase specific quantities of the gas sold to EGAS as LNG.

The signing of the Aphrodite deal follows a recent breakthrough between Cyprus and the Chevron-led consortium after months of disagreement over a development plan.

The agreement provides a boost for Egypt, which has struggled with declining domestic gas production and last year returned to being a net importer of natural gas.

Egypt recently signed $3 billion worth of LNG supply deals with Shell and TotalEnergies to cover domestic demand for 2025.

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly has emphasized the country's need to ramp up production at its own Zohr gas field, where operator Eni has resumed drilling after output dropped to 1.9 billion cubic feet per day in early 2024.