US Pressures Ethiopia to Support Egypt in GERD Talks

Reports said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has approved a plan to halt nearly $130 million in US foreign assistance to Ethiopia. AFP file photo
Reports said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has approved a plan to halt nearly $130 million in US foreign assistance to Ethiopia. AFP file photo
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US Pressures Ethiopia to Support Egypt in GERD Talks

Reports said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has approved a plan to halt nearly $130 million in US foreign assistance to Ethiopia. AFP file photo
Reports said Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has approved a plan to halt nearly $130 million in US foreign assistance to Ethiopia. AFP file photo

Pressure exerted by the United States on Ethiopia has bolstered Egypt’s position in the dispute over the Renaissance Dam, which Addis Ababa is building on the Blue Nile amid concerns by Cairo and Sudan.

The recent US hint to halt financial assistance to Addis Ababa is considered a “positive indication” in Egypt’s favor, observers told Asharq Al-Awsat, noting that it might contribute to resolving the ongoing African Union-sponsored talks.

Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo approved a plan to halt up to $130 million foreign assistance to Ethiopia over its intransigence in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) talks.

This decision has fueled new tensions in the relationship between Washington and Addis Ababa, which is still moving forward in its plan to complete the construction of the dam.

Ethiopia’s Ambassador to the US Fitsum Arega tweeted Monday saying he has heard the aid cut was linked to the negotiations on GERD, demanding clarification.

“We will pull Ethiopia out of darkness,” he stressed.

Addis Ababa, which began constructing the dam in 2011 on the Nile River, considers the project essential to generate electricity to support its development.

Both Khartoum and Cairo fear the 145-meter-high dam will threaten essential water supplies.

Cairo fears the potential negative impact of GERD on the flow of its annual share of the Nile’s 55.5 billion cubic meters of water especially that it relies on it for more than 90 percent of its water supplies.

Technical and legal differences among the three countries to reach an agreement on the operation and filling of the mega-dam have faltered.

The differences are mainly focused on filling the dam reservoir during periods of drought, as well as the dispute settlement mechanism and the binding obligations of the agreements that will be reached, as well as Ethiopia's demand for a share in the Blue Nile waters and its future projects there.

According to former Foreign Minister Mohammed El Orabi, also member of the Egyptian Parliament's Foreign Relations Committee, the US hint to cut aid grants Egypt further international legitimacy.

In his statements to Asharq Al-Awsat, Orabi called on Cairo to seek further international pressure on Ethiopia to agree on just solutions in the dam dispute.

He also accused the Ethiopian leadership of “sidestepping international laws and norms…without realizing the consequences of its actions.”

Ethiopia refused in February to sign a final agreement mediated by the US Treasury and the World Bank, accusing Washington of “bias in favor of Egypt.”

Ambassador Mohammed Ashraf Harbi, who is a member of the Egyptian council on foreign affairs, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US administration is serious in its threats to Ethiopia.



Hamas Faces Leadership Void amid Complex Challenges

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during the 31st anniversary celebrations of his movement in 2018 (EPA)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during the 31st anniversary celebrations of his movement in 2018 (EPA)
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Hamas Faces Leadership Void amid Complex Challenges

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during the 31st anniversary celebrations of his movement in 2018 (EPA)
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during the 31st anniversary celebrations of his movement in 2018 (EPA)

Palestinian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is the “biggest blow” to the group since it was founded, even more significant than the deaths of its other leaders.
They said his killing leaves “a difficult gap to fill” and is likely to impact the situation in Gaza, the future of Hamas, and possibly the wider conflict between Iran and Israel.
Sinwar wasn’t just another Hamas leader. After launching the “Al-Aqsa Flood” on Oct. 7 last year, he became the group’s most iconic figure.
He was the “mastermind” behind the operation that exposed one of Israel’s greatest intelligence failures. Sinwar had unmatched control over Hamas’ military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, which is still battling in a devastated Gaza, where over 40,000 people have died.
He also strengthened Hamas’ ties with Iran, securing financial, military, and technical support from Tehran.
Under Sinwar, Hamas saw something new: both political and military decisions were controlled by one man, with strong public support in Gaza. Sinwar was seen by Hamas members as a charismatic leader, untouched by internal power struggles.
His assassination is a major win for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had promised to go after everyone involved in the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.
This adds to Netanyahu’s list of high-profile assassinations, which includes Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The killing also shows that the issue of hostages held by Hamas is no longer a major factor in Israel’s decision-making.
Key points from sources:
Hamas has a leadership structure to handle the loss of its leaders, but no one with Sinwar’s unique skills is left, especially after the deaths of key figures behind the Al-Aqsa Flood.
Unlike Hezbollah, Hamas is trapped in a besieged area, making it harder to receive help. Hezbollah, in contrast, can easily get support from Iran, including leadership aid.
Sinwar’s death won’t end Hamas, but it will weaken the group.
Decision-making will likely slow down, especially in balancing the political and military wings.
Sinwar’s assassination raises questions about the ongoing fighting in Gaza and the fate of hostages. His death could spark a wave of suicide attacks.
Without Sinwar, it will be hard for any new Hamas leader to accept a ceasefire, especially after the heavy Israeli strikes and the loss of key leaders, including Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran.
The killing comes at a tense time, with Israel preparing for a possible strike on Iran, increasing the risk of a wider regional conflict.
It’s unclear how Sinwar’s death will impact Israel’s approach, or if it will bring the hostages back into focus, as some Israeli leaders suggest a ceasefire may now be possible.