In Crisis-Hit Lebanon, Paris and Washington at Odds over Hezbollah

Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)
Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)
TT

In Crisis-Hit Lebanon, Paris and Washington at Odds over Hezbollah

Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)
Hezbollah supporters in the southern Lebanese region of Marjeyoun on the border with Israel on May 25. (AFP)

When it comes to Lebanon, the US and France have similar outlooks, but one major point of difference involves the Hezbollah movement -- shunned by Washington but tolerated by a pragmatic Parisian leadership.

While the United States seeks to isolate and curb the influence of the Iran-backed group it has designated a "terrorist" organization and punished with sanctions, France recognizes it as a key political actor whose cooperation is needed to lift Lebanon out of crisis.

Lebanon's government stepped down last month amid popular anger over a massive blast at Beirut's port on August 4 that killed 191 people, wounded thousands and ravaged large parts of the capital.

Both Western powers have agreed Lebanon needs a cabinet different from its predecessors to tackle urgent reforms, but all consensus seems to end there.

"France's approach tends to be more realistic," analyst Karim Bitar told AFP.

"France views Lebanon as it is, while the (US President Donald) Trump administration tends to view Lebanon as it would like it to be."

The US view is that Hezbollah -- the only group not to have disarmed after the 1975-1990 civil war -- holds excessive influence in Lebanon, "which needs to be contained", Bitar said.

But Paris recognizes "Hezbollah in Lebanon is a major political actor, that it has a wide captive constituency in Lebanon's Shiite community, that it is here to stay," he added.

Two facets of Hezbollah
The United States has been following closely as French President Emmanuel Macron twice visited Lebanon since August 4 to press for political change and reforms to unlock financial aid.

During his last trip, the French leader differentiated between two facets of Hezbollah -- one "terrorist", and the other, a political party "elected by the people" to parliament and allied with the Lebanese president's party that could not be excluded from talks.

Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has been notably positive about Macron's visits, not labelling them as "foreign interference" as he might have done for such a move by the US.

The party’s parliamentary bloc leader, Mohammad Raad, was among lawmakers who met Macron before he said all sides had agreed to form a new government within a fortnight.

France, which has outlined a roadmap for reforms for the next government, "wants to maintain a channel of dialogue with Hezbollah in order to prevent the destabilization of Lebanon", Bitar said.

Paris views itself as "an honest broker" to do this in a time when tensions are at a peak between Washington and Tehran.

Observers say France is one of the only Western powers to have maintained direct contact with Hezbollah, pointing to the role of the current French ambassador, who formerly held the same post in Tehran.

"There has always been direct contact between Paris and Hezbollah," an Arab diplomat in Beirut told AFP.

And as Washington is caught up in preparing for the US presidential polls, it appears to be giving France some leeway on Lebanon.

"The Americans have set as a condition that Hezbollah not take part in the (next) government, but they could turn a blind eye to them remaining if there were a deal and reforms," the diplomat said.

Hezbollah 'cannot be trusted'
US Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs David Schenker, also visiting Lebanon last week, told Lebanese newspaper An-Nahar that the US appreciated the French initiative, but differed on a few details, including that Hezbollah was not a legitimate political organization but a "terrorist" group.

He did not meet with key political figures, instead seeing army chief Joseph Aoun, lawmakers who resigned after the port blast, civil society activists and Shiite figures opposed to Hezbollah.

One such Shiite figure told AFP that Schenker said during their meeting that Hezbollah "cannot be trusted" to lead reforms.

"Hezbollah has been given ample opportunity since 2005 to really involve itself in the state and has not changed its behavior," the source reported Schenker as saying.

The United States has demanded Hezbollah lay down its weapons, but also echoed the call of a political minority in Lebanon that the country be "neutral", meaning that it break ties with Iran and distance itself from the region's conflicts.

Most Lebanese political sides, however, have accepted that the party is a military force to contend with and a political actor present in all branches of state, which, with its allies, currently dominates parliament.

Responding to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling for Hezbollah's weapons to be dealt with as a priority, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt in a televised interview last week responded that the solution would come through politics.

"Let Pompeo forget the rockets for now. That matter will be solved through politics when the time is right," he said.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
TT

What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.