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US Congress Members Criticize Erdogan’s Foreign Policy

US President Donald Trump welcomes Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the White House in Washington, US in November 13, 2019 (Reuters/ Tom Brenner)
US President Donald Trump welcomes Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the White House in Washington, US in November 13, 2019 (Reuters/ Tom Brenner)
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US Congress Members Criticize Erdogan’s Foreign Policy

US President Donald Trump welcomes Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the White House in Washington, US in November 13, 2019 (Reuters/ Tom Brenner)
US President Donald Trump welcomes Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the White House in Washington, US in November 13, 2019 (Reuters/ Tom Brenner)

Resentment has increased among US Congress members towards Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in rejection of his foreign policies.

Republican Senator Ron Johnson remarks to consider Greece as an alternative for the US “Incirlik” Air Force base has reflected the positions of many Republican and Democratic Congress members who had previously warned from Erdogan’s “disturbing” foreign policy. Also, they have been relentlessly seeking to push for sanctions against Ankara.

Meanwhile, many are concerned over the impact of possible sanctions on the US presence in Turkey, as well as the fate of its base there.

“We don't know what's gonna happen to Incirlik,” Johnson told the Washington Examiner.

“We hope for the best, but we have to plan for the worst.”

Erdogan threatened to close the base in late 2019 in response to the US sanctions at the time.

US lawmakers are discontent with his repeated threats every time the Congress tries to officially recognize Turkey’s commission of the Armenian Genocide during the World War I.

“We want to maintain our full presence and cooperation in Turkey,” Johnson said.

“I don’t think we want to make that strategic shift, but I think, from a defensive posture, I think we have to look at the reality of the situation that the path that Erdogan is on is not good.”

The disagreements between Turkey and other NATO allies has grown in recent years, in part due to Erdogan’s purchase of advanced Russian anti-aircraft missile systems — a decision that led President Donald Trump’s administration to expel Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter program.

More recently, Erdogan got embroiled in a maritime boundary dispute with Greece, a controversy grave enough to prompt NATO officials to intervene to ensure that the two alliance members avoid a military clash.

In the midst of these controversies, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced last week that Cyprus would be allowed to purchase “nonlethal defense articles and services,” providing partial relief from an arms embargo imposed in 1987.

“It is in our national security interest to lift these outdated decades-long arms restrictions and deepen our security relationship with the Republic of Cyprus,” New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, said in support of Pompeo’s announcement.

The US Navy maintains a base at Souda Bay on the Greek island of Crete.

“It’s very unfortunate the path that Erdogan is taking Turkey, or has put Turkey on,” Johnson noted.

“It’s disturbing. It’s very concerning, which is one of the reasons we certainly are increasing and improving our military cooperation with Greece ... beefing up our presence in Souda Bay, because our presence, quite honestly, in Turkey is certainly threatened,” he stressed.

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Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
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Iran Awaits Trump's Policy on its Nuclear Program

This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)
This handout picture provided by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran shows the organization chief Mohammad Eslami (R) during a ceremony to unveil a domestically-made high power radio frequency generator (AEOI)

One of the many complex foreign policy problems that Donald Trump will inherit when he takes office in just over two weeks is Iran, according to the US Council on Foreign Relations.

Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear power, its robust ballistic missile program continues to progress, and it sees the United States as the main obstacle to its domination of the Middle East, the Council wrote in an analysis.

“How will Trump respond,” it then asked, “That question is easy to answer because Trump has been consistent about his plans. He will return to his first administration’s policy of “maximum pressure.”

That effort sought to turn the economic screws on Iran by expanding US sanctions against it and ratcheting up the enforcement of sanctions already in place.

“The goal was not regime change but rather forcing Tehran to limit its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and curb support for the regional militias that made up the so-called axis of resistance,” the Council said.

It added that although maximum pressure squeezed the Iranian economy, it failed to force Tehran to the bargaining table.

The Council said even as its economy faltered and its foreign reserves dwindled, Iran continued its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, expanded its support for its regional proxies, and even launched a missile attack against a US base in Iraq in 2020.

“Would the maximum pressure campaign have paid off had the Biden administration kept it in place? Trump thinks so,” it wrote.

The Council said evidence on that score is mixed.

“Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, have weakened Iran’s position in the region. Its proxies are fewer and weaker than just six months ago.”

Beyond that, Israel’s October retaliatory air strikes destroyed much of Iran’s air defenses, leaving it open to further military attacks.

Nuclear Program

According to the Council, that vulnerability, coupled with Iran’s economic woes and domestic unrest, may be why Iran’s foreign minister said that Iran is looking to resume nuclear talks.

By the same token, however, a maximum pressure strategy takes time to work.

“That could be in short supply, at least when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program,” according to the Council.

It said Iran intensified its uranium-enrichment efforts after Trump terminated the 2015 nuclear deal that the Obama administration negotiated.

By most estimates, it added, Iran can now build a small number of nuclear weapons within weeks of deciding to cross the nuclear threshold.

The Council on Foreign Relations also noted that other great powers will also undermine the maximum pressure policy.

“China and Russia have both skirted or ignored existing US and multilateral sanctions on Iran. They are unlikely to comply with them now unless they get something significant from the United States in return,” it said.

The Council also showed that Trump may be unwilling or unable to provide that enticement. “If Tehran believes that Beijing and Moscow have its back, resistance becomes a more feasible strategy. Tehran could even use negotiations as a way to buy time to address its vulnerabilities,” it added.

Negotiations in Good Faith

Even if Iran enters into negotiations in good faith, Trump’s efforts could stumble over deciding what deal is good enough, the Council wrote.

It said the ideological diversity of his team, composed as it is of hardliners and American Firsters, makes it likely they will argue over what Tehran needs to concede to make a deal worthwhile. That internal division could torpedo the effort to get a deal.

“All of this raises the question of what happens if talks either do not begin or, perhaps more likely, go nowhere once they do,” the Council noted.

It said calls for the US to attack Iran’s nuclear sites are likely to mount if the maximum pressure campaign does not produce quick results. “Trump will also likely hear calls that he should encourage Israel to attack Iran, though Israel lacks the capability to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.”

According to the Council, Tehran will be assessing Trump’s willingness to use military force, as well as Israel’s military capabilities, as it thinks about negotiations.

It said Iranian leaders know he ordered the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in 2020, spoke on the campaign trail about blowing Iran “to smithereens” and has said that Israel should hit Iran’s nuclear sites.

But they also know that he campaigned against America’s “forever wars” in the Middle East while boasting, wrongly, that he is “the only president in seventy-two years” that “had no wars.”

According to the Council, resorting to military force, whether with direct US action or by encouraging Israel to attack, would be a major roll of the dice.

“It might succeed beyond its planners’ wildest dreams and usher in a new, more peaceful era in the Middle East,” it said.

Or, like the invasion of Iraq, it may open a Pandora’s Box of problems that will haunt the region and the United States for years to come, the Council showed.

But letting Iran continue its nuclear and ballistic missile programs while it rebuilds its axis of resistance has costs of its own, it noted.

Therefore, the Council said some hope that a return to the maximum pressure strategy works.