Syria War Losses Exceed $442 Billion

Photo by Andrew Quilty
Photo by Andrew Quilty
TT

Syria War Losses Exceed $442 Billion

Photo by Andrew Quilty
Photo by Andrew Quilty

By the end of the eighth year of conflict in Syria, economic losses had exceeded an estimated $442 billion, according to a report issued by the National Agenda for the Future of Syria (NAFS) program of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) and the Center for Syrian Studies at the University of St Andrews.

However huge, this number alone does not epitomize the suffering of a population among which 5.6 million people were registered as refugees and 6.4 million as internally displaced; 6.5 million were experiencing food insecurity, and 11.7 million were still in need of at least one form of humanitarian assistance.

The report, entitled “Syria at War: Eight Years on”, reveals that nearly 3 million children inside the country were out of school during the 2017-2018 academic year. The conflict has torn the social fabric and caused losses in human development, downgrading Syria’s status from medium human development to low human development.

In their foreword, ESWA and the University of St Andrews point out that “the consequences of the conflict for the economy and social fabric pose daunting future challenges: whether it is production, investment or human development, the conflict has cost the country its hard-won socioeconomic gains”.

The report shows that 82% of conflict-induced damage was accumulated in seven of the most capital-intensive sectors, namely housing, mining, security, transport, manufacturing, electricity, and health. It estimates the value of physical capital destruction at $117.7 billion and the loss in gross domestic product (GDP) at $324.5 billion, thus placing the macroeconomic cost of conflict at about $442.2 billion. The report also cites official data according to which, by the end of 2018, real GDP had lost 54% of its 2010 level.

As for trade, the report underlines that Syrian exports witnessed a collapse, from $8.7 billion in 2010 to $0.7 billion in 2018, resulting from disrupted production and trade chains. Infrastructure damage, the restrictive unilateral economic sanctions imposed by the United States of America and the European Union, and physical, financial, and human capital flight out of the country are among the contributing factors to this collapse. Imports, however, did not witness a comparable fall, which has widened the trade deficit and generated increasing pressure on the value of the Syrian pound (SYP).

The report also provides an overview of the repercussions of the conflict on governance and the rule of law, and of the different manifestations of its internationalization. It outlines some principles of peacebuilding, highlights challenges for recovery then suggests ways out of the deadlock.



Syrian Intelligence Says It Foiled ISIS Attempt to Target Damascus Shrine

A general view of the city during the year's first sunrise on New Year's Day, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 1, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view of the city during the year's first sunrise on New Year's Day, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 1, 2025. (Reuters)
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Syrian Intelligence Says It Foiled ISIS Attempt to Target Damascus Shrine

A general view of the city during the year's first sunrise on New Year's Day, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 1, 2025. (Reuters)
A general view of the city during the year's first sunrise on New Year's Day, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, January 1, 2025. (Reuters)

Intelligence officials in Syria's new de facto government thwarted a plan by the ISIS group to set off a bomb at a Shiite shrine in the Damascus suburb of Sayyida Zeinab, state media reported Saturday.

State news agency SANA reported, citing an unnamed official in the General Intelligence Service, that members of the ISIS cell planning the attack were arrested.  

It quoted the official as saying that the intelligence service is “putting all its capabilities to stand in the face of all attempts to target the Syrian people in all their spectrums.”

Sayyida Zeinab has been the site of past attacks on Shiite pilgrims by ISIS.

In 2023, a motorcycle planted with explosives detonated in Sayyida Zeinab, killing at least six people and wounding dozens.

The announcement that the attack had been thwarted appeared to be another attempt by the country's new leaders to reassure religious minorities, including those seen as having been supporters of the former government of Bashar al-Assad.

Assad, a member of the Alawite minority, was allied with Iran and with the Shiite Lebanese group Hezbollah as well as Iranian-backed Iraqi militias.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the former opposition group that led the lightning offensive that toppled Assad last month and is now the de facto ruling party in the country, is a group that formerly had ties with al-Qaeda.

The group later split from al-Qaeda, and HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa has preached religious coexistence since assuming power in Damascus.

Also Saturday, Lebanon's caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati arrived in Damascus to meet with al-Sharaa.

Relations between the two countries had been strained under Assad, with Lebanon's political factions deeply divided between those supporting and opposing Assad's rule.