What Happens if a US Presidential Candidate Exits the Race?

President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden, right, during the first presidential debate, Sept. 29, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP)
President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden, right, during the first presidential debate, Sept. 29, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP)
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What Happens if a US Presidential Candidate Exits the Race?

President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden, right, during the first presidential debate, Sept. 29, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP)
President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden, right, during the first presidential debate, Sept. 29, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP)

A US presidential nominee has never died or had to withdraw from a White House race this close to an election.

But President Donald Trump's hospitalization for coronavirus just a month from the November 3 vote has raised the question of what happens if such an event should occur.

Trump is 74 years old and while his opponent Joe Biden is reportedly in relatively good health at 77 and is the oldest Democratic nominee ever.

AFP takes a look at some of the potential scenarios in the event a nominee exits the race:

Delay the presidential election?
Unlikely. Congress set the date for the election and this one has already been scheduled, as per US law for the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

Both the Republican-controlled Senate and the Democratic-majority House of Representatives would have to agree on a postponement.

"I don't see it happening," said Capri Cafaro, a former Democratic member of the Ohio state senate who teaches at American University. "It is unlikely a Democratic majority would want to postpone the election."

Even during the Civil War between the North and South, the 1864 election was held as scheduled with Abraham Lincoln winning another term.

Can a candidate be replaced?
Trump's Republican Party and Biden's Democratic Party both have rules outlining how to fill a vacancy on the presidential ticket should one occur.

In the case of Trump's GOP, the 168 members of the Republican National Committee could vote to select the replacement.

The RNC could also reconvene its national convention of more than 2,500 delegates to select a new candidate but time pressure probably makes this unworkable.

A simple majority would be all that is needed to choose a new candidate in either scenario.

In the case of the Democrats, a new presidential nominee would be selected by the nearly 450 members of the Democratic National Committee.

Can a replacement candidate be on the ballot?
Probably not. "The problem at this point is that we are so far along in this 2020 election that not only have people cast ballots, ballots have already been printed," Cafaro said.

"You really don't have enough time to reprint ballots which say Mike Pence or Kamala Harris," she said, referring to the Republican and Democratic vice presidential nominees respectively.

More than 3.1 million Americans have already cast their ballots, according to a tally kept by the US Elections Project at the University of Florida.

In addition, deadlines for ballot access vary from state to state and they have already passed in most cases.

What about the Electoral College?
While the United States holds a popular vote, the president is elected by an absolute majority of the 538 members of the Electoral College.

In every state but two (Nebraska and Maine), the candidate winning the majority of the popular vote in that state wins all that state's electors.

Nothing in the Constitution obliges electors to vote in one way or another but the Supreme Court ruled in July that states could fine so-called "faithless electors" who do not respect the popular vote.

The members of the Electoral College will gather in their respective states on December 14 and vote for president and vice president.

In the event a candidate dies or withdraws before the Electoral College casts its votes, things could get messy.

Individual state laws come into play but each party could theoretically direct its electors to vote for a replacement candidate.

On January 6, 2021, Congress will certify the results, with the winner being sworn in as president on January 20.



Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles?

The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Wednesday, June 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Wednesday, June 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
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Will Israel’s Interceptors Outlast Iran’s Missiles?

The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Wednesday, June 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept missiles during an Iranian attack over Tel Aviv, Israel, early Wednesday, June 18, 2025. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

Israel has a world-leading missile interception system but its bank of interceptors is finite. Now, as the war drags on, Israel is firing interceptors faster than it can produce them.

On Thursday, The New York Times reporters spoke to current and former Israeli officials about the strengths and weaknesses of Israeli air defense.

Aside from a potentially game-changing US intervention that shapes the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, two factors will help decide the length of the Israel-Iran war: Israel’s reserve of missile interceptors and Iran’s stock of long-range missiles.

Since Iran started retaliating against Israel’s fire last week, Israel’s world-leading air defense system has intercepted most incoming Iranian ballistic missiles, giving the Israeli Air Force more time to strike Iran without incurring major losses at home.

But now, as the war drags on, Israel is firing interceptors faster than it can produce them. That has raised questions within the Israeli security establishment about whether the country will run low on air defense missiles before Iran uses up its ballistic arsenal, according to eight current and former officials.

Already, Israel’s military has had to conserve its use of interceptors and is giving greater priority to the defense of densely populated areas and strategic infrastructure, according to the officials. Most spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak more freely.

Interceptors are “not grains of rice,” said Brig. Gen. Ran Kochav, who commanded Israel’s air defense system until 2021 and still serves in the military reserve. “The number is finite.”

“If a missile is supposed to hit refineries in Haifa, it’s clear that it’s more important to intercept that missile than one that will hit the Negev desert,” General Kochav said.

Conserving Israel’s interceptors is “a challenge,” he added. “We can make it, but it’s a challenge.”

Asked for comment on the limits of its interceptor arsenal, the Israeli military said in a brief statement that it “is prepared and ready to handle any scenario and is operating defensively and offensively to remove threats to Israeli civilians.”

No Israeli official would divulge the number of interceptors left at Israel’s disposal; the revelation of such a closely guarded secret could give Iran a military advantage.

The answer will affect Israel’s ability to sustain a long-term, attritional war. The nature of the war will partly be decided by whether Trump decides to join Israel in attacking Iran’s nuclear enrichment site at Fordo, in northern Iran, or whether Iran decides to give up its enrichment program to prevent such an intervention.

But the war’s endgame will also be shaped by how long both sides can sustain the damage to their economies, as well as the damage to national morale caused by a growing civilian death toll.

Israel relies on at least seven kinds of air defense. Most of them involve automated systems that use radar to detect incoming missiles and then provide officers with suggestions of how to intercept them.

Military officials have seconds to react to some short-range fire, but minutes to judge the response to long-range attacks. At times, the automated systems do not offer recommendations, leaving officers to make decisions on their own, General Kochav said.

The Arrow system intercepts long-range missiles at higher altitudes; the David’s Sling system intercepts them at lower altitudes; while the Iron Dome takes out shorter-range rockets, usually fired from Gaza, or the fragments of missiles already intercepted by other defense systems.

The United States has supplied at least two more defense systems, some of them fired from ships in the Mediterranean, and Israel is also trying out a new and relatively untested laser beam. Finally, fighter jets are deployed to shoot down slow-moving drones.

Some Israelis feel it is time to wrap up the war before Israel’s defenses are tested too severely.

At least 24 civilians have been killed by Iran’s strikes, and more than 800 have been injured. Some key infrastructure, including oil refineries in northern Israel, has been hit, along with civilian homes. A hospital in southern Israel was struck on Thursday morning.

Already high by Israeli standards, the death toll could rise sharply if the Israeli military is forced to limit its general use of interceptors in order to guarantee the long-term protection of a few strategic sites like the Dimona nuclear reactor in southern Israel or the military headquarters in Tel Aviv.

“Now that Israel has succeeded in striking most of its nuclear targets in Iran, Israel has a window of two or three days to declare the victory and end the war,” said Zohar Palti, a former senior officer in the Mossad, Israel’s spy agency.

“When planning how to defend Israel in future wars, no one envisaged a scenario in which we would be fighting on so many fronts and defending against so many rounds of ballistic missiles,” said Palti, who was for years involved in Israel’s defensive planning.

Others are confident that Israel will be able to solve the problem by destroying most of Iran’s missile launchers, preventing the Iranian military from using the stocks that it still has.

Iran has both fixed and mobile launchers, scattered across its territory, according to two Israeli officials. Some of its missiles are stored underground, where they are harder to destroy, while others are in aboveground caches, the officials said.

The Israeli military says it has destroyed more than a third of the launchers. Officials and experts say that has already limited the number of missiles that Iran can fire in a single attack.

US officials said Israel’s strikes against the launchers have decimated Iran’s ability to fire its missiles and hurt its ability to create large-scale barrages.

“The real issue is the number of launchers, more than the number of missiles,” said Asaf Cohen, a former Israeli commander who led the Iran department in Israel’s military intelligence directorate.

“The more of them that are hit, the harder it will be for them to launch barrages,” Cohen added. “If they realize they have a problem with launch capacity, they’ll shift to harassment: one or two missiles every so often, aimed at two different areas simultaneously.”

The New York Times