US presidential candidate Ronald Reagan secretly held negotiations with the Iranians to resolved the 1980 hostage crisis. He did so to gain electoral points as he was lagging behind Jimmy Carter in the polls. Now, two weeks before the American presidential elections, the polls show that Democratic candidate Joe Biden is ahead of incumbent Donald Trump.
Mitoji Yabunaka, Japan’s Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs, recalled to Asharq Al-Awsat the arduous talks held in 2005 as part of the Six-Party talks with North Korea. Known as the “godfather” of those negotiations, a joint statement was eventually reached in fall 2005. The deal included Pyongyang’s agreement to abandon its nuclear ambitions, but soon after, Washington slapped sanctions against North Korea and the negotiations ultimately collapsed.
Yabunaka explained that the United States adopted two approaches, one led by the State Department and another by the Treasury.
The Reagan and North Korea negotiations shed some light on the current negotiations in Damascus to resolve the hostage crisis. The hostages include Austin Tice, a journalist from Texas who disappeared while covering the Syrian war in 2012, and Majd Kamalmaz, a 62-year-old clinical psychologist from Virginia, who disappeared in 2017 and is believed to be held in a Syrian government prison. Trump had set as a priority the return of all American hostages held throughout the world. To that end, he had formed a cell of representatives from various institutions with the aim of following up on the cases of some 40 missing people.
Arab and foreign officials, as well as Syrian figures who are close to the Damascus regime, have at varying degrees played the role of mediator in the hostage file. At the moment, they appear to have adopted three different approaches:
The American approach was taken on by Trump himself. At one point he had sent a written message to Syrian President Bashar Assad inquiring about Tice’s fate and even proposed holding “direct dialogue”. The suggestion was made three years after Trump had proposed the assassination of Assad in retaliation to a 2017 chemical attack. The move was opposed by then Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
Former national security adviser John Bolton wrote in his recent book that negotiations on the US role in Syria were “complicated by Trump’s constant desire to call Assad on US hostages." He said he and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo thought it was "undesirable.” “Fortunately, Syria saved Trump from himself, refusing even to talk to Pompeo about them,” Bolton wrote.
As the American elections loom, Trump has again turned his attention to the hostages in Syria. He dispatched Kash Patel, a deputy assistant to the president, and Roger Carstens, special presidential envoy for hostages affairs. They met with Syrian national security chief Ali Mamluk.
Syria’s al-Watan newspaper, which is close to the regime, reported that the American officials were surprised by the Syrian insistence that there can be no discussions or cooperation with Washington before addressing American troop withdrawal from eastern Syria.
Another approach is being led by Lebanese General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim. The official had previously played a prominent role in mediating the release of foreign and Arab hostages held in Syria and Iran. Earlier this year, he relayed a number of messages between Damascus and Washington over the release of Tice and seven American-Syrians. The messages were sent at the height of Trump’s debating whether American troops should remain in eastern Syria and before the Caesar Act went into effect.
The Syrians at the time demand a “complete troop withdrawal” from the east. Assad then brought the negotiations to a halt because he believed he would reap more gains if they were tackled before the American elections in November, said an informed western official.
The official confirmed the ongoing coordination between Ibrahim, Damascus and Tehran in the hostages file. He revealed that priority is being placed on the dismantling of the al-Tanf base and the withdrawal of American forces, instead of the sanctions file and caution is being shown to avoid obstructing efforts to reconstruct Syria and restore relations with Arab countries. He revealed that efforts are being made to ensure that Trump is not given an “electoral gift” that would boost his chances in November.
The third approach is being led by influential Arab countries whereby Arab businessmen have carried out visits to Damascus and western capitals in order to assess whether they intend to exert serious efforts to release Tice and other hostages. Such a move would have been part of a series of “confidence-building” measures ahead of reaching a “major deal” that would include other issues, such Iran’s role in Syria, rebuilding the war-torn country, suspending sanctions, normalizing relations and resuming peace negotiations between Damascus and Tel Aviv.
The western official confirmed that Arab countries are keen on establishing an American-Syrian course that begins with the hostages file and supports Trump in the elections and that would ultimately lead to wider negotiations in early 2021 - regardless of who wins the American elections - to reach a major strategic deal.
At this point two options are available. The first calls for striking a small deal that includes the release of Tice and others in exchange for some “exemptions” from the Caesar Act and dropping the veto on Damascus’ normalization of ties with Arab or western countries in the hope of reviving the Syrian economy. The other option could see Syria gradually restoring its strategic role and address issues such as Iran, peace, reconstruction and troop withdrawals.
The main stumbling block for the Americans however, is that Damascus has not offered any evidence that proves that Tice is alive and that it is holding him. Al-Watan reported that Tice had disappeared in mysterious circumstances in Damascus’ eastern Ghouta and nothing has been heard of him since. It speculated that he may have disappeared during then clashes between extremist groups in eastern Ghouta. Significantly, Damascus presented a long list of demands throughout the three different negotiations approaches even before it confirmed whether it was holding Tice. It has only speculated that he is being held by extremists. This may just be the beginning of the long grueling road of negotiations.
On the other hand, the US still has its own cards and may continue to opt to forge ahead with slapping more sanctions against Damascus as part of the Caesar Act until partial breakthroughs or major strategic changes are achieved.
