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Haftar Mum on Libya Ceasefire Deal, GNA Calls for Mercenaries Pullout

A member of the troops loyal to the GNA rides a military vehicle as he prepares before heading to Sirte, on the outskirts of Misrata, on July 18. (Reuters)
A member of the troops loyal to the GNA rides a military vehicle as he prepares before heading to Sirte, on the outskirts of Misrata, on July 18. (Reuters)
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Haftar Mum on Libya Ceasefire Deal, GNA Calls for Mercenaries Pullout

A member of the troops loyal to the GNA rides a military vehicle as he prepares before heading to Sirte, on the outskirts of Misrata, on July 18. (Reuters)
A member of the troops loyal to the GNA rides a military vehicle as he prepares before heading to Sirte, on the outskirts of Misrata, on July 18. (Reuters)

Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar has yet to comment on the permanent nationwide ceasefire that was brokered by the United Nations earlier this week.

The accord, concluded after talks between military representatives of Fayez al-Sarraj's Government of National Accord (GNA) and the LNA in Geneva, will be followed by political discussions in Tunisia next month.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, informed Libyan sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the rival parties are beginning to implement the agreement on the ground.

LNA spokesman Ahmed al-Mismari said that Haftar has not commented on the truce and that he was awaiting his official statement.

Mismari also denied claims attributed to him that he had apologized for the LNA’s war on Tripoli last year and earlier this year.

On the other side of the divide, the GNA Defense Ministry called for the immediate withdrawal of all mercenaries from oil facilities and military positions in Libya in a gesture of goodwill ahead of their pullout from the country.

It warned that some mercenary groups deployed at oil fields and the al-Jufra base “may be out of control and will need to be dealt with carefully and firmly.”

The High Council of State warned on Friday of the possible violation of the ceasefire by “rebellious” forces – a reference to the LNA – that do not recognize the presence of mercenaries among their ranks.

Spokesmen for the GNA’s Volcano of Rage operation, Mohammed Qanunu expressed doubts that the ceasefire would hold.

Qanunu, who was present at the Geneva talks, was skeptical over the ceasefire that “does not call for holding to account those involved in the aggression against Tripoli and other cities in western Libya.”

Moreover, he questioned the LNA’s ability to have “more than 5,000 Wagner group mercenaries and others from Syria, Sudan and Chad” withdraw from Libya

“We don’t believe they have the power to make such a demand, meanwhile the Wagner group continues to set up bases and fortifications and dig up trenches,” he added.

He also demanded that the UN dispatch monitors to the central city of Sirte and Jufra, describing them as hotbeds for foreign mercenaries.

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Arab World

Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
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Lebanon’s War Losses Double Compared to 2006

Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)
Rescuers and aid workers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike in eastern Lebanon (AFP)

A comparison of the current human and material losses from the ongoing Hezbollah-Israel conflict with those from the July 2006 war shows that current losses have doubled.

Experts warn that the reconstruction funds and aid pledged to Lebanon 18 years ago may have limited impact once the war ends.

Total Losses

Mohammad Shamseddine, a researcher from Information International, told Asharq Al-Awsat that the death toll has risen from 900 in 2006 to 2,865 in the current conflict (as of October 31, 2024), with the number increasing daily. The number of wounded was 4,000 in 2006, but it has now exceeded 13,047.

In 2006, 600,000 people were displaced, while today that number has surpassed 1.2 million. Of these, 189,174 are in shelters. A total of 358,133 Syrians and 172,604 Lebanese have fled to Syria, and 120,000 have sought refuge in other countries.

Lebanese Economy and Trade Minister Amin Salam estimated that Lebanon’s total economic losses from the current conflict have reached $20 billion. However, economic associations report direct losses between $10 billion and $12 billion, covering damage to key sectors, homes, buildings, and infrastructure.

These figures align with estimates from Shamseddine, who believes direct and indirect losses are around $10 billion.

Of this, $4 billion occurred from October 8, 2023, to September 17, 2024 (when the conflict was mostly limited to the south), and $7 billion from September 17 to October 31, 2024, after Israel expanded the war. For comparison, losses during the 2006 war totaled $5.3 billion.

In 2006, infrastructure damage was valued at $900 million, higher than the current war's $570 million in infrastructure losses.

Housing losses in 2006 totaled $2.2 billion, while they have now surpassed $4.26 billion. Mohammad Shamseddine points out that commercial losses were similar in both conflicts, at $4.7 million.

Agricultural and environmental losses in 2006 were $450 million, but now exceed $900 million. Indirect economic damages were $1.2 billion in 2006, while they have now surpassed $3.38 billion.

One notable difference is the number of airstrikes: from October 8, 2023, to October 31, 2024, there were 11,647, compared to just 3,670 during the 33-day 2006 war.