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KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) has published the first study of its kind that analyzes regional electricity demand in the Saudi Arabia after energy price reforms.

The paper, prepared by the center’s researchers Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan al-Yamani, Fakhri Hasanov and Hatem al-Atawi showed that residential electricity demand is determined by a variety of drivers, which vary from one area to another.

These drivers include, among other things, market concentration, regional wealth, population and income.

According to the study, dubbed “Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling Regional Residential Electricity Demand,” a better understanding of regional electricity demand and its drivers may allow for tailored price reform and regional household assistance programs.

This is in addition to better anticipating demand responses and estimating the revenues they would get from future price reforms more accurately.

The impact of the 2018 price reforms led to a decline in the total residential electricity consumption of 9.1% nationwide, it noted.

Meanwhile, the central region ranks as the most affected region in the reduction of residential electricity consumption, which decreased to 10.7 percent followed by the eastern region with 8.8 percent, then the western and southern regions with 8.1 percent.

Researchers found that the price, income, weather, and population were considered the drivers of residential electricity consumption in each region.

The short-run impacts of price changes on demand were found to be significant for all regions, at around 0.1 percent, except for the eastern region, for which they were insignificant.

Notably, the eastern region has specific features. It has the highest income compared with the other regions.

The paper recommended utilization of smart meters and deploying strategies to promote the use of efficient appliances, as these meters offer consumers the ability to adjust their habits by monitoring their energy use and supplying them with the data.

Suppliers can also use smart meters to allow consumers to compare their energy use with that of other consumers.

In addition, the research suggests planning optimal housing types considering region-specific features, increasing the insulation capacities of the existing houses/buildings, setting centralized AC's in apartments. The population densities should also be considered in future city expansion plans to ensure sustainable energy consumption.

The study comes under the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), aiming to analyze the effects of different policy choices, such as energy price and fiscal policy changes, on the economy, assess the effects of the Saudi Vision 2030 initiatives and its targets and link Saudi Arabia’s macroeconomic-energy environment with the global economy/energy markets.

In February 2020, KAPSARC announced making progress in the list of the best research centers regionally and globally, as it jumped 14 ranks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) research centers.

It was ranked 15th out of 103 research centers regionally, and 13th out of 60 research centers globally specializing in energy policy.

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Business

'Handful' of G20 Countries Reject US Stance on Excess Industrial Capacity

US Trade Representative Jamison Greer speaks on the second day of the G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin - October 1 (AFP)
US Trade Representative Jamison Greer speaks on the second day of the G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin - October 1 (AFP)
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'Handful' of G20 Countries Reject US Stance on Excess Industrial Capacity

US Trade Representative Jamison Greer speaks on the second day of the G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin - October 1 (AFP)
US Trade Representative Jamison Greer speaks on the second day of the G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin - October 1 (AFP)

A "handful" of Group of 20 trade ministers rejected US calls to curb excess industrial capacity and "non-market" policies, the US Trade Representative's office said on Friday, exposing divisions within the group of major economies.

The US, this year's G20 chair, issued the statement a day after a trade meeting in Milwaukee that revealed that only two countries — Mexico and Argentina — signed on to a US-led statement calling for more work and cooperation to eliminate goods produced with forced labor from supply chains, Reuters reported.

The rejection from the vast majority of G20 countries follows the Trump administration's imposition of ‌tariffs of 10% or ‌12.5% on goods from 59 countries and the European Union over allegations ‌that ⁠they fail to ⁠adequately enforce bans on forced labor.

USTR also is conducting a second "Section 301" tariff investigation into 16 trading partners that show signs of excess industrial capacity. The probe is widely expected to lead to new duties in coming months.

The USTR statement did not name countries that objected to the excess-capacity statement. But China had objected to a similar G20 statement denouncing forced labor and non-market economic policies that lead to excessive exports at a finance leaders' meeting a month ago in North Carolina.

"The draft ministerial statement was supported by all but a handful ⁠of members, a few of whom firmly rejected creating this pathway toward cooperative ‌action" on excess capacity, the statement said, adding that this "severely ‌disappointed" the US G20 presidency.

China's excess industrial capacity and industrial subsidies have been key themes of the US-led G20 ministerial ‌meetings so far this year. Beijing has rejected claims that its industrial policies have created excess capacity, ‌accusing Western countries of using the issue to justify protectionist measures.

The US said that G20 trade ministers reached consensus on denouncing the weaponization of food trade, with members agreeing that trade in food or agricultural inputs should not be used as a tool for economic or political coercion.

In that G20 joint statement, the ministers defined the weaponization of ‌food as measures to "slow, stop, block or direct the flow of food and agricultural inputs" to exert coercive pressure to extract unrelated geopolitical concessions.

"We ⁠condemn food weaponization, as ⁠it poses a significant humanitarian and economic threat," the G20 trade ministers said.

After pressure from US President Donald Trump that included the threat of a US diesel export ban, Group of Seven countries on Friday agreed to release some 100 million barrels of diesel reserves to try to drive down record-high US diesel prices. The fuel is widely used in agricultural production.

TARIFF STRUCTURE DISCUSSIONS

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Thursday that he did not seek a joint statement on a fourth discussion topic, reforming the "most favored nation" system of published, unconditional global tariff rates that underpin the World Trade Organization. MFN tariffs have defined the global trading system since the end of World War Two.

Greer has argued that the MFN principle has been abused by non-market-oriented economies such as China that have subsidized industries, but it does not allow these countries to be treated differently.

The US statement said some G20 members had expressed a willingness to consider changes to MFN, including expanding exceptions to the principle and issuing new legal interpretations to enable greater use of existing exceptions.

Business

DOJ Will Not Reopen Criminal Probe into Fed's Powell

(FILES) US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on March 18, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)
(FILES) US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on March 18, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)
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DOJ Will Not Reopen Criminal Probe into Fed's Powell

(FILES) US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on March 18, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)
(FILES) US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on March 18, 2026. (Photo by Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP)

The US Justice Department is not reopening a criminal probe into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for cost overruns related to the central bank's building renovation project, a DOJ spokesperson said on Friday.

Attorney General Todd Blanche, in comments to Bloomberg News, which first reported the development, said he ‌has not ruled out ‌continuing to look into ‌the ⁠project's oversight and potentially ⁠take action if evidence of wrongdoing came to light.

The Fed's Inspector General on Wednesday said it found no grounds for a criminal referral or evidence of administrative misconduct tied to the project cost overruns, ⁠but its conclusion there was lax ‌oversight drew a ‌fresh call from President Donald Trump for Powell's ‌resignation. Powell has remained at the ‌Fed as a governor since stepping down as chair in May.

His successor Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said on Thursday he would hire an independent ‌auditor to "verify accuracy and compliance" for all of the project's costs.

Blanche told ⁠Bloomberg ⁠News that if this new review finds any evidence of criminal wrongdoing, the Justice Department could investigate.

At his final press conference as Fed chief in April, Powell said he would not leave the Board "until this investigation is well and truly over, with transparency and finality."

A Fed spokesperson had no immediate comment on Blanche's statements.

Business

Copper Crawls Higher on Softer Dollar and Supply Issues

FILE PHOTO: A coil of copper rod sits on the production line for copper flat wire at the Wellascent factory in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, China, August 14, 2025. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A coil of copper rod sits on the production line for copper flat wire at the Wellascent factory in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, China, August 14, 2025. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
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Copper Crawls Higher on Softer Dollar and Supply Issues

FILE PHOTO: A coil of copper rod sits on the production line for copper flat wire at the Wellascent factory in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, China, August 14, 2025. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A coil of copper rod sits on the production line for copper flat wire at the Wellascent factory in Ganzhou, Jiangxi province, China, August 14, 2025. REUTERS/Florence Lo/File Photo

Copper prices edged higher on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar and supply issues, but gains were modest due to worries about high oil prices hitting demand.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.5% to $14,319 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading. That marked a decline of 2% since the end of last week.

"Metals have seen light turnover again so far this session with copper finding some support with a slightly softer dollar, but the broader tone remains cautious," Neil Welsh, head of metals at broker Britannia Global Markets, said in a note.

"High energy costs stemming from the ⁠ongoing US-Iran conflict and ⁠signs of industrial weakness in China have weighed on sentiment across the complex."

The dollar index hit its strongest in 17 months this week, but weakened on Friday, making commodities priced in the US currency cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

LME copper has gained 16% over the past six months, largely due to a large shift in ⁠inventories to the US attracted by the prospect of tariffs there, creating shortages elsewhere.

Stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange <CU-STX-SGH> have slumped by 79% over the past four months to 38,744 tons, their lowest since January 2024.

The SHFE was closed for China's National Day and will reopen on October 8.

The prospect of less output in the world's largest copper producer Chile has also underpinned the market, with data on Wednesday showing production fell 12.8% year-on-year in August.

Supervisors at Chile's Escondida copper mine, the world's largest, rejected a collective ⁠contract offer, ⁠paving the way for a potential strike and adding to supply fears.

"This adds to an overall slump in output, as the industry struggles to maintain aging infrastructure amid difficult operating conditions," Reuters quoted Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, as saying in a note.

Among other metals, LME aluminium dipped 0.1% in official activity to $3,121.50 a ton and nickel also shed 0.1% to $15,620.

Zinc rose 0.2% to $3,732.50, lead ticked 0.3% higher to $1,863 and tin was little changed at $54,350.