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KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) has published the first study of its kind that analyzes regional electricity demand in the Saudi Arabia after energy price reforms.

The paper, prepared by the center’s researchers Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan al-Yamani, Fakhri Hasanov and Hatem al-Atawi showed that residential electricity demand is determined by a variety of drivers, which vary from one area to another.

These drivers include, among other things, market concentration, regional wealth, population and income.

According to the study, dubbed “Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling Regional Residential Electricity Demand,” a better understanding of regional electricity demand and its drivers may allow for tailored price reform and regional household assistance programs.

This is in addition to better anticipating demand responses and estimating the revenues they would get from future price reforms more accurately.

The impact of the 2018 price reforms led to a decline in the total residential electricity consumption of 9.1% nationwide, it noted.

Meanwhile, the central region ranks as the most affected region in the reduction of residential electricity consumption, which decreased to 10.7 percent followed by the eastern region with 8.8 percent, then the western and southern regions with 8.1 percent.

Researchers found that the price, income, weather, and population were considered the drivers of residential electricity consumption in each region.

The short-run impacts of price changes on demand were found to be significant for all regions, at around 0.1 percent, except for the eastern region, for which they were insignificant.

Notably, the eastern region has specific features. It has the highest income compared with the other regions.

The paper recommended utilization of smart meters and deploying strategies to promote the use of efficient appliances, as these meters offer consumers the ability to adjust their habits by monitoring their energy use and supplying them with the data.

Suppliers can also use smart meters to allow consumers to compare their energy use with that of other consumers.

In addition, the research suggests planning optimal housing types considering region-specific features, increasing the insulation capacities of the existing houses/buildings, setting centralized AC's in apartments. The population densities should also be considered in future city expansion plans to ensure sustainable energy consumption.

The study comes under the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), aiming to analyze the effects of different policy choices, such as energy price and fiscal policy changes, on the economy, assess the effects of the Saudi Vision 2030 initiatives and its targets and link Saudi Arabia’s macroeconomic-energy environment with the global economy/energy markets.

In February 2020, KAPSARC announced making progress in the list of the best research centers regionally and globally, as it jumped 14 ranks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) research centers.

It was ranked 15th out of 103 research centers regionally, and 13th out of 60 research centers globally specializing in energy policy.

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Israel-Iran Conflict Disrupts Air Travel in the Region

Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
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Israel-Iran Conflict Disrupts Air Travel in the Region

Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)
Flight information display screen shows updates about cancelled flights, due to schedule disruptions stemming from the Iran-Israel conflict, at the Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport, Lebanon June 16, 2025. (Reuters)

The escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran is creating mounting challenges for Middle Eastern airlines, including airspace closures and rerouted flight paths, all of which are driving up operational costs.

While Gulf carriers are relying on alternative routes - albeit more expensive ones - private airlines in neighboring countries face the risk of exiting the market altogether if the crisis persists.

Countries geographically close to the conflict, such as Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, are increasingly concerned about the conflict’s deepening impact on the civil aviation sector, which represents one of the most sensitive branches of their economies. The threat is no longer confined to security concerns alone, but is now hitting the economic core of these nations.

Dr. Hussein Al-Zahrani, an aviation investor, told Asharq Al-Awsat that countries geographically tied to the Iran-Israel conflict are already facing direct complications in the aviation sector. These include airport closures and rerouted flights, such as the diversion of Jordanian planes to Egypt’s Cairo and Sharm El Sheikh, or grounding aircraft entirely.

Al-Zahrani noted that national carriers in these countries, particularly state-owned airlines, are more likely to receive government support to help them weather the storm. However, the limited number of private airlines operating in these regions may not survive a prolonged crisis.

Iraq has approximately five carriers, Lebanon one, Syria two (one of which is government-owned), and Jordan three; all of which could suffer significantly if the conflict drags on.

In contrast, Gulf airlines have contingency plans in place, Al-Zahrani said, although they are not immune to the repercussions.

Increased flight distances and restricted airspace will present logistical and financial burdens, though Gulf carriers are more resilient and often absorb the extra costs themselves. In many cases, rerouting results in only minor extensions - around 20 minutes - which allows airlines to maintain stable pricing.

He cited exceptions, such as some northern-bound Kuwaiti flights to Europe that typically rely on Iraqi airspace. These will now need to reroute via Saudi airspace, then over the Mediterranean to reach Europe, significantly increasing flight durations and operating expenses.

Al-Zahrani also pointed out that many transcontinental flights between East and West, which pass over Saudi and Iraqi airspace, will be disrupted if closures in conflict zones persist. This may force airlines to reschedule, reroute, or even suspend certain long-haul routes if they become economically unfeasible.

Aviation-sector companies are considered foundational contributors to national budgets, particularly in countries where the industry plays a major economic role. According to Al-Zahrani, these entities are typically the first to suffer in the event of military conflicts, especially as oil prices rise and long-haul operations become increasingly expensive.

Observers warn that if Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz - a vital maritime corridor connecting the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea - it would further heighten concerns for both maritime and air transportation companies, given the anticipated spike in insurance costs and risk premiums should the crisis continue.

Economic analyst Marwan Al-Sharif told Asharq Al-Awsat that airlines may be able to navigate the crisis if it remains short-lived, especially those operating in proximity to the warring parties. However, if the conflict drags on, the resulting losses could grow more severe, weakening the financial viability of many carriers amid rising fuel costs, airspace restrictions, and surging insurance rates.