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KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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KAPSARC Study Analyzes Regional Electricity Demand After Energy Price Reform

Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Energy price reform contributes to reducing electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia (Asharq Al-Awsat)

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) has published the first study of its kind that analyzes regional electricity demand in the Saudi Arabia after energy price reforms.

The paper, prepared by the center’s researchers Jeyhun Mikayilov, Abdulelah Darandary, Ryan al-Yamani, Fakhri Hasanov and Hatem al-Atawi showed that residential electricity demand is determined by a variety of drivers, which vary from one area to another.

These drivers include, among other things, market concentration, regional wealth, population and income.

According to the study, dubbed “Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling Regional Residential Electricity Demand,” a better understanding of regional electricity demand and its drivers may allow for tailored price reform and regional household assistance programs.

This is in addition to better anticipating demand responses and estimating the revenues they would get from future price reforms more accurately.

The impact of the 2018 price reforms led to a decline in the total residential electricity consumption of 9.1% nationwide, it noted.

Meanwhile, the central region ranks as the most affected region in the reduction of residential electricity consumption, which decreased to 10.7 percent followed by the eastern region with 8.8 percent, then the western and southern regions with 8.1 percent.

Researchers found that the price, income, weather, and population were considered the drivers of residential electricity consumption in each region.

The short-run impacts of price changes on demand were found to be significant for all regions, at around 0.1 percent, except for the eastern region, for which they were insignificant.

Notably, the eastern region has specific features. It has the highest income compared with the other regions.

The paper recommended utilization of smart meters and deploying strategies to promote the use of efficient appliances, as these meters offer consumers the ability to adjust their habits by monitoring their energy use and supplying them with the data.

Suppliers can also use smart meters to allow consumers to compare their energy use with that of other consumers.

In addition, the research suggests planning optimal housing types considering region-specific features, increasing the insulation capacities of the existing houses/buildings, setting centralized AC's in apartments. The population densities should also be considered in future city expansion plans to ensure sustainable energy consumption.

The study comes under the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM), aiming to analyze the effects of different policy choices, such as energy price and fiscal policy changes, on the economy, assess the effects of the Saudi Vision 2030 initiatives and its targets and link Saudi Arabia’s macroeconomic-energy environment with the global economy/energy markets.

In February 2020, KAPSARC announced making progress in the list of the best research centers regionally and globally, as it jumped 14 ranks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) research centers.

It was ranked 15th out of 103 research centers regionally, and 13th out of 60 research centers globally specializing in energy policy.

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Oil Prices Whipsaw while US Stocks Glide Near their Record Heights

Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
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Oil Prices Whipsaw while US Stocks Glide Near their Record Heights

Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)
Facilities of the PCK Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany, are seen at the company's plant on April 30, 2026 - (File Photo by Tobias SCHWARZ / AFP)

Oil prices whipsawed on Thursday and surged toward their highest levels since the war with Iran began, only for the leaps to quickly vanish. The US stock market, meanwhile, is gliding following more strong profit reports from big companies like Alphabet.

The S&P 500 rose 0.1% and is a bit below its all-time high set earlier this week, as companies continue to deliver fatter profits for the start of 2026 than analysts expected despite high oil prices and uncertainty about the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 413 points, or 0.8%, as of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.3% lower, Reuters reported.

Alphabet led the way and rose 5.8% after the owner of Google and YouTube reported profit for the latest quarter that almost doubled analysts’ expectations. Investments in artificial intelligence “are lighting up every part of the business,” CEO Sundar Pichai said.

The steadiness on Wall Street followed manic swings in the oil market, where prices surged overnight on worries that the Iran war will affect the flow of crude for a long time. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers, keeping them pent up in the Arabian Gulf and away from customers worldwide, while a US Navy blockade is preventing Iran from selling its own oil.

Traders are always buying and selling contracts for different kinds of oil, going out for many months. In the most actively traded part of the market for Brent crude, the international standard, the price got as high as $114.70 overnight for a barrel of Brent to be delivered in July. It then regressed to $109.80, down 0.6%, which is still well above the roughly $70 per barrel that Brent was selling for before the war.

So far during the war, the peak price for the most actively traded Brent contract is $119.50, which was set last month.

In a less actively traded corner of the Brent market, the price for a barrel to be delivered in June briefly went above $126 overnight before pulling back toward $114.

That easing, along with the continuing flood of better-than-expected profit reports from US companies, helped to keep Wall Street stable near its records.

Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, O’Reilly Automotive and Royal Caribbean all rallied more than 6% after delivering profits for the latest quarter that topped analysts’ expectations. That’s crucial for investors because stock prices tend to follow the track of corporate profits over the long term.

Still, a better-than-expected result isn’t always enough to boost a stock’s price if it’s already shot much higher.

Meta Platforms tumbled 9.9% even though the company behind Facebook and Instagram made more profit last quarter than expected. Investors focused more on Meta’s increased forecast for how much it will spend on data centers and other investments this year as it builds out its AI capabilities, up to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion.

Doubts are still high among some investors about whether all the AI spending by Meta and other companies will produce enough profit and productivity to make it worth it.

Microsoft fell 4.5% after it likewise raised its forecast for investments and other capital spending. But analysts also said accelerating trends at its Azure business were encouraging.

Amazon slid 0.8% after blowing past analysts’ expectations for earnings in the latest quarter.

In the bond market, Treasury yields eased after oil prices gave up their big overnight gains. Reports also suggested that US economic growth accelerated by less in the first three months of the year than economists expected, while a measure of inflation worsened in March by about as much as expected.

A separate report said that fewer US workers applied for unemployment benefits last week in an indication of fewer layoffs even though companies are announcing large cuts to workforces.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.38% from 4.42% late Wednesday.

In stock markets abroad, indexes were mixed.

London’s FTSE 100 jumped 1.3% after the Bank of England kept its main interest rate on hold.

Germany's DAX returned 0.7%, and France's CAC 40 slipped 0.2% after the European Central Bank also held its own interest rates steady. That followed similar decisions by the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Tuesday to keep their rates unchanged.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.3%, while stocks added 0.1% in Shanghai after a report said China’s factory activity slowed slightly in April but remained in expansion territory for the second month.

Business

Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product grew 2.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year, preliminary government estimates showed on Thursday.

Non-oil activities grew 2.8% in the quarter, and oil activities increased 2.3% from the prior-year period, the General Authority of Statistics data ⁠showed.

On a quarterly basis, growth shrank 1.5% in the three months to March 31 compared to the fourth quarter, driven by a decline in oil activities.

Oil activity decreased 7.2% from the fourth quarter, while non-oil activity was almost flat.

Business

IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
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IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

Asian countries will need to keep their powder dry in preparation for future shocks even as they tackle an energy crisis caused by the Iran War, IMF Director for Asia Pacific Krishna Srinivasan said on Thursday.

With energy supplies running short due to the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz, southeast Asian economies have budgeted significant sums to cushion the impact of surging prices, and have also introduced measures to conserve energy, including work from home plans.

But Srinivasan, speaking at a media roundtable, warned countries against ramping up energy subsidies.

"If you give generalised subsidies, it's very hard to pull it back," he said, adding that countries should instead provide budget neutral ⁠and targeted fiscal ⁠support, and maintain fiscal discipline.

"In other words, cut elsewhere to support people who are being hit by the energy shock," Reuters quoted him as saying.

Srinivasan said that while some markets, such as Thailand and China, can hold off on tightening monetary policy because they are in deflationary territory, markets already above their inflation targets, including Australia, need to start now.

He also ⁠noted that some markets, such as the Philippines, have decided to tighten preemptively to anchor inflation expectations, but he added that the IMF's advice would have been to see through the shock and wait to see if inflation really picks up in a meaningful way.

"You may want to take insurance upfront or you may want to wait and see so that you don't hurt growth ... it's a very difficult balance to strike as a central bank governor," he said.

The IMF cut its global GDP outlook for 2026 to 3.1% on April 14, assuming ⁠a short-lived Middle ⁠East conflict and oil prices normalising in the second half of the year.

However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that the fund's "adverse scenario" of 2.5% growth looked increasingly likely, with continued energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict.

Srinivasan said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond the next three months and oil prices stay elevated for the rest of the year, the IMF's more severe growth scenarios will become more likely.

There are still downside risks to growth, with a number of uncertainties facing the world economy, including the duration of the energy crisis and the severity of fertiliser shortages, which could create a food supply shock, he said.