Analysis: Iran Frets over US Vote

US President Donald Trump. Reuters file photo
US President Donald Trump. Reuters file photo
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Analysis: Iran Frets over US Vote

US President Donald Trump. Reuters file photo
US President Donald Trump. Reuters file photo

Top officials in Iran say the upcoming US election doesn't matter, but nearly everyone else there seems to be holding their breath.

The race for the White House could mean another four years of President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign. Or it could bring Joe Biden, who has raised the possibility of the US returning to Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

In the upper levels of Iran's Islamic Republic, overseen by 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, anti-Americanism is as deeply entrenched as at any time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with presidents from both parties seen as equally repugnant, The Associated Press reported.

“America has a deep-rooted enmity against the Iranian nation and whether Trump is elected or Biden, it will not have any impact on the US main policy to strike the Iranian nation,” parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said in September, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

But noticeably, Khamenei himself hasn't commented on the election, even as public interest has soared. State-run radio rebroadcast a BBC Farsi-language service simulcast of the presidential debates live — even as Iran continues to target journalists for the British broadcaster.

That interest allegedly includes Iran's security apparatus as well. US officials accuse the Iran of sending emails to voters seeking to intimidate them into voting for Trump. It may have been an attempt to link the president to apparent election interference in order to sow chaos, like Russia's interference in America's 2016 election. Tehran denies being involved.

The Iranian public is paying attention. The state-owned polling center ISPA said this month that 55% of people believe the outcome of the election will affect Iran “a lot.” Over half expected Trump would win, while a fifth said Biden. ISPA said it surveyed over 1,600 people by telephone, and did not provide a margin of error.

Trump's re-election would mean the extension of his pressure campaign, including sanctions on Khamenei and other senior officials. Some of the sanctions are largely symbolic — Khamenei has only once traveled to America and doesn't hold any US bank accounts — but others have devastated the economy and sent the local currency into freefall. As a hedge, Iranians have poured money into foreign currency, real estate, precious metals and the stock market — which hit a record high in August.

Trump on the campaign trail has hit on that and his decision to launch a drone strike that killed a top Iranian general in January — a move that led Tehran to launch a retaliatory ballistic missile strike, wounding dozens of American troops.

To cheers, Trump has described the general, Qassem Soleimani, as “the world's No. 1 terrorist,” likely due to him being blamed for the improvised explosive devices that maimed US troops in Iraq and for supporting Syria's President Bashar Assad.

“The first call I get when we win will be from the head of Iran, let’s make a deal. Their economy is crashing,” Trump told a campaign rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Monday. “They will call and I want them to do well, but they cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

Biden has left open the possibility of returning to the nuclear deal, in which Tehran agreed to limit its uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. The other signatories — Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China — have remained committed to the agreement and allowed a UN arms embargo to expire as part of the deal, despite a White House push to keep it in place.

After Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018 and restored crippling sanctions, Iran began publicly abandoning the agreement's limits on enrichment. It now has at least 2,105 kilograms (2.32 tons) of low-enriched uranium, according to a September report by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Experts typically say 1,050 kilograms (1.15 tons) of low-enriched uranium is enough material to be re-enriched for one nuclear weapon.

Experts say the “breakout time” needed for Iran to build one nuclear weapon if it chooses to do so has dropped from one year under the deal to as little as three months.

Iran in the past also has threatened to abandon a nuclear nonproliferation treaty or expel international inspectors. It recently began construction at an underground nuclear site, likely building a new centrifuge assembly plant after a reported sabotage attack there earlier this year.

“'America First' has made America alone,” Biden said at a televised ABC town hall this month, playing on a longtime Trump slogan. “You have Iran closer to having enough nuclear material to build a bomb.”

What a return to the deal means, however, is in question, AP said.

Biden's campaign website says he would use “hard-nosed diplomacy and support from our allies to strengthen and extend it.” One criticism of the accord was its narrow focus on the nuclear program, despite concerns over Iran's ballistic missile program and its presence in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.

Iran maintains that its ballistic missile program is vital for deterring potential attacks and non-negotiable. It is also unlikely to cease its military activities in Syria and Iraq, AP said.

But ensuring the survival of the Iranian government, particularly amid the coronavirus pandemic, may require the same flexibility that saw Iran agree to negotiations with the US in the first place. Iran will hold a presidential election in June, but any decision to re-engage with Washington would have to be made by the supreme leader.

“Khamenei’s revolutionary path actually leads to America — that is, by seeking a stable, safe, and meticulously measured relationship with the United States, he believes he can guarantee the survival of both the regime and its revolutionary content and orientation,” wrote Mehdi Khalaji, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“Tehran’s objective is therefore a scandalous paradox: Deal with America to remain anti-American.”



Johnny Moore… What Do We Know About Chairman of Gaza Humanitarian Foundation

People carrying boxes and bags containing food and humanitarian aid packages distributed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation last month in Rafah, in southern Gaza. (AP)
People carrying boxes and bags containing food and humanitarian aid packages distributed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation last month in Rafah, in southern Gaza. (AP)
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Johnny Moore… What Do We Know About Chairman of Gaza Humanitarian Foundation

People carrying boxes and bags containing food and humanitarian aid packages distributed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation last month in Rafah, in southern Gaza. (AP)
People carrying boxes and bags containing food and humanitarian aid packages distributed by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation last month in Rafah, in southern Gaza. (AP)

As the world condemned the killings this week of dozens of hungry Palestinians near US-backed aid sites in Gaza, the group responsible for distributing that aid quietly appointed a new leader: an evangelical Christian with ties to the Trump administration.

The group, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which was founded last year, announced on Tuesday that Johnnie Moore, an American public relations professional, would be its new executive chairman after the previous chief quit.

Moore’s appointment comes as the foundation, which began handing out food boxes last week, temporarily halted operations on Wednesday to work on “organization and efficiency.”

It had been racked by a resignation in its ranks, chaos at its distribution sites and violence nearby, including two shooting episodes in which dozens of Palestinians were killed, according to local health workers.

Here is what to know about Moore and his ties to the Trump administration.

A presence in the Oval Office

Moore was a spokesman for Liberty University, the Christian institution founded in Lynchburg, Virginia., in 1971 by the Rev. Jerry Falwell, for a dozen years before moving into the media industry and starting his own faith-based public relations firm.

He represented early evangelical supporters of President Trump, including Jerry Falwell Jr, who succeeded his father at Liberty University, and Paula White, who now leads the White House faith office.

Moore was co-chairman of the 2016 Trump presidential campaign’s evangelical advisory board and an influential figure during Trump’s first administration. He was part of a coalition of Christian leaders who paid regular visits to the White House, attending policy briefings, as well as prayer meetings in the Oval Office.

His public relations company, Kairos, was acquired in 2022 by JDA Worldwide, and Moore now serves as president of that larger firm.

When he announced the acquisition on social media, Moore referred to his work in public relations as his “day job” as he has had many other roles and projects linked to his faith and interest in foreign policy, including writing books on the persecution of Christians in the Middle East and Africa.

In 2017, Moore told The New York Times that he and other evangelicals had pressed Trump to recognize Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem and to move the US Embassy there. “It has been an issue of priority for a long time,” he said.

Moore describes himself as “a bridge builder and peacemaker especially known for consequential work at the intersection of faith and foreign policy, especially in the Middle East.”

The embassy move drew condemnation from Palestinian and Arab leaders, the heads of many Christian churches in Jerusalem and much of the international community, which has long viewed the status of Jerusalem as a matter to be resolved through negotiations over a future Palestinian state.

A cheerleader for Mike Huckabee

Moore, like many evangelicals, including Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, is committed to a Jewish state based on his interpretation of the Bible.

Some evangelicals view their support for Israel as an important element of their belief in biblical prophecy. Speaking to The Washington Post in 2018, Moore said he had advised White House officials that “those who bless Israel will be blessed.”

Moore cheered Huckabee’s nomination, saying on social media in November that “selecting a lifelong non-Jewish Zionist as the US ambassador to Israel sends a powerful message to friend and foe of America.”

Huckabee, 69, and Moore, 41, have walked similar paths as public figures and Christian media creators, and they have been described as friends in Israeli news media. The embassy did not respond to a request for comment on their relationship.

The new face of a troubled Gaza organization

Israel imposed a blockade on supplies entering the Gaza Strip in March, accusing Hamas of looting humanitarian aid. That embargo was lifted to a limited degree last month, after the international community raised alarms about widespread hunger in the enclave.

Israelis conceived of the new system to establish aid distribution sites run by American security contractors in the enclave. It was meant, officials said, to circumvent Hamas, which Israel accused of stealing assistance meant for civilians.

But the rollout of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation’s operation has been chaotic. Its previous head resigned hours before the initiative was set to begin late last month, citing a lack of autonomy.

On Tuesday, Boston Consulting Group, a US advisory firm, said that it had stepped back from its involvement with the organization, that it had placed a partner who had worked on the project on leave and that it would conduct an internal review of its work.

Humanitarian organizations have criticized the foundation’s approach to aid distribution for a lack of independence from Israel, whose soldiers are positioned near the sites and have fired what the Israeli military has called “warning” shots on multiple occasions.

And the United Nations has refused to have anything to do with the effort because it says Israel is militarizing and politicizing humanitarian assistance and putting Palestinians in danger.

As reports of disarray at aid distribution sites emerged during the project’s first week, Moore said the effort was “working” and should be “celebrated.”

When the Gazan health authorities reported shooting deaths near one of the foundation’s sites, Moore reposted a statement from Huckabee accusing the news media and Hamas of spreading misinformation.

Moore lists 18 years of service with World Help, a Christian humanitarian organization, among his volunteer experiences, along with his new appointment at the Gaza foundation and his roles on various advisory boards, including that of the nonpartisan advocacy group Muslim Coalition for America and Haifa University in Israel.

In a statement about his appointment, Moore said he would help “ensure the humanitarian aid community and the broader international community understand what’s taking place on the ground.” The foundation declined a request for an interview.

*Ephrat Livni is a reporter for The New York Times’ DealBook newsletter, based in Washington.