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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)

Internal conflicts in Ethiopia have cast a shadow over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dams negotiations with Egypt and Sudan, amid fears of further delays of the AU-sponsored talks.

This comes as the war in Tigray region has caused a crack in the foundation of the ruling Ethiopian coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Last weekend, the Ethiopian army announced the war on the northern region following an attack by Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on a federal military base in the area.

According to observers, the army’s military intervention, which left dozens of casualties, threatens to spark a wide civil war in the country.

Ahmed, however, has been seeking to reassure citizens by tweeting that Ethiopia is grateful to its friends who expressed concern.

“Fears of Ethiopia’s sliding into chaos are baseless and come as a result of a lack of understanding of our conditions.”

Dr. Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, has expected the fighting to expand.

Abiy, who won 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize, has sacked prominent political figures in an attempt to control the situation. These include the army chief of staff, director of the intelligence service and the foreign minister, who was leading the GERD talks.

The unrest in Ethiopia is expected to affect the completion of GERD project, which Addis Ababa has been constructing since 2011 on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile water, and raises tensions with Egypt and Sudan.

Rislan told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the fighting continues, there will be no strong authority that can attain the political and strategic objectives of the dam.

Since July, the three countries have been in negotiations, hoping to reach an agreement over filling and operating the GERD.

Negotiations were suspended at the end of last August due to technical and legal disputes.

Egypt and Sudan fear that this will affect their shares in the Nile waters and stress the need to reach a binding agreement that guarantees the rights and interests of the three countries, and includes a mechanism for settling disputes.

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Lebanese Govt Approaches Hezbollah Arms File Without Decisions

In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese president Joseph Aoun, center foreground, and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, right, head a cabinet meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)
In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese president Joseph Aoun, center foreground, and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, right, head a cabinet meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)
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Lebanese Govt Approaches Hezbollah Arms File Without Decisions

In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese president Joseph Aoun, center foreground, and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, right, head a cabinet meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)
In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese president Joseph Aoun, center foreground, and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, right, head a cabinet meeting at the presidential palace in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, April 17, 2025. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)

Lebanon’s government addressed the contentious issue of Hezbollah’s weapons
and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 with no concrete decisions made during the recent cabinet discussions.
Government sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Lebanese Forces bloc demanded that timeline for the disarmament of Hezbollah be set, but there was no response to their demand. Other ministers argued that the matter of exclusive state control over weapons is already addressed in the government's ministerial statement.

Moreover, and in a gesture underscoring its commitment to international cooperation, the government approved the extension of the mandate for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), highlighting Lebanon’s “keenness on partnership with the international community to maintain stability.”
It also reported 2,740 Israeli violations since the ceasefire agreement was put in place.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, government sources said that President Joseph Aoun has vowed to discuss the matter of setting a timeline to disarm Hezbollah with the relevant parties, and will report the outcome of his consultations back to the cabinet.

Following the cabinet session, Information Minister Paul Morcos reaffirmed the government's commitment to asserting state authority over all Lebanese territory. He underscored the need to bolster the Lebanese Army amid growing security challenges—particularly in the south, where the army continues to carry out its duties despite repeated Israeli aggressions.

The Minister stated that Army Commander General Rodolph Haikal delivered a security briefing during the meeting, outlining ongoing operations and the army's position. Haikal stressed Lebanon’s full commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, in contrast to Israel’s repeated violations, which, he said, hinder the army’s deployment and the extension of state authority in the region.
UN Security Council Resolution 1701 calls for the Lebanese Army’s deployment south of the Litani River and the removal of all unauthorized armed groups.

Despite limited resources, Morcos noted, the army “continues to fulfill its duties under difficult conditions”.
Industry Minister, Joe Issa el-Khoury, said after the cabinet meeting at Baabda Palace that ministers of the Lebanese Forces bloc raised the issue of setting a six-month timeline for the handover of all illegal weapons—both Lebanese and non-Lebanese. They proposed beginning the process with the Palestinian refugee camps.
Morco also announced that the Cabinet approved the extension of the UNIFIL mandate in southern Lebanon, stressing the Lebanese state’s commitment to its partnership with the international community in preserving stability.

For his part, President Aoun, at the onset of the session, described his meeting with Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Tamim Al-Thani, in Doha as “fruitful and excellent,” revealing that a Qatari delegation may visit Lebanon next week to discuss the electricity file.
Aoun also thanked the Intelligence Directorate and General Security for arresting members of a cell involved in rocket launches from southern Lebanon. He expressed hope that the cell recently dismantled in Jordan—whose members admitted to receiving training in Lebanon—will be fully unraveled.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, for his part, spoke about his recent visit to Syria. He said four major issues were discussed: securing and eventually demarcating the Lebanese-Syrian border, the case of Lebanese detainees who disappeared in Syria, Lebanese nationals wanted by authorities who are currently in Syria, and the issue of Syrian prisoners held in Lebanon.
Salam underscored that some of the most pressing matters discussed was the return of Syrian refugees back to their homeland, and the need to lift sanctions on Syria in order to facilitate this process.
The visit also included an official request for information related to the Beirut port explosion.