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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
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GERD Talks in Doubt Following Unrest in Ethiopia

Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)
Ethiopian army soldiers heading on a mission in the Amhara region near the border with the Tigray region, which Addis Ababa accuses of seeking secession. (Reuters)

Internal conflicts in Ethiopia have cast a shadow over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dams negotiations with Egypt and Sudan, amid fears of further delays of the AU-sponsored talks.

This comes as the war in Tigray region has caused a crack in the foundation of the ruling Ethiopian coalition led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Last weekend, the Ethiopian army announced the war on the northern region following an attack by Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on a federal military base in the area.

According to observers, the army’s military intervention, which left dozens of casualties, threatens to spark a wide civil war in the country.

Ahmed, however, has been seeking to reassure citizens by tweeting that Ethiopia is grateful to its friends who expressed concern.

“Fears of Ethiopia’s sliding into chaos are baseless and come as a result of a lack of understanding of our conditions.”

Dr. Hani Raslan, an expert on African affairs at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies in Cairo, has expected the fighting to expand.

Abiy, who won 2019’s Nobel Peace Prize, has sacked prominent political figures in an attempt to control the situation. These include the army chief of staff, director of the intelligence service and the foreign minister, who was leading the GERD talks.

The unrest in Ethiopia is expected to affect the completion of GERD project, which Addis Ababa has been constructing since 2011 on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile water, and raises tensions with Egypt and Sudan.

Rislan told Asharq Al-Awsat that if the fighting continues, there will be no strong authority that can attain the political and strategic objectives of the dam.

Since July, the three countries have been in negotiations, hoping to reach an agreement over filling and operating the GERD.

Negotiations were suspended at the end of last August due to technical and legal disputes.

Egypt and Sudan fear that this will affect their shares in the Nile waters and stress the need to reach a binding agreement that guarantees the rights and interests of the three countries, and includes a mechanism for settling disputes.

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Lebanon’s Supreme Defense Council Urges Hamas to Hand Over Suspects in Rocket Attacks

Lebanese Army personnel at the site of an Israeli strike targeting a militant group leader south of Beirut last week (AFP).
Lebanese Army personnel at the site of an Israeli strike targeting a militant group leader south of Beirut last week (AFP).
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Lebanon’s Supreme Defense Council Urges Hamas to Hand Over Suspects in Rocket Attacks

Lebanese Army personnel at the site of an Israeli strike targeting a militant group leader south of Beirut last week (AFP).
Lebanese Army personnel at the site of an Israeli strike targeting a militant group leader south of Beirut last week (AFP).

A senior Lebanese source has revealed that authorities will demand Hamas to hand over remaining individuals implicated in recent rocket attacks launched from Kfartebnit and Qaqaiyat al-Jisr—two towns located north of the Litani River, overlooking southern Lebanon—toward the Israeli settlements of Metula and Kiryat Shmona. The suspects are also believed to have stored rockets and launchers in a warehouse raided by the Lebanese Army, which seized several of the weapons, some prepared for imminent use.
The source told Asharq Al-Awsat that this demand will top the agenda of the first meeting of the Supreme Defense Council, scheduled for Friday and to be chaired by President Joseph Aoun.
The Council is also expected to discuss the security situation in southern Lebanon amid Beirut’s unilateral commitment to the ceasefire agreement, contrasted by what it views as Israel’s noncompliance. The session will further address recent incidents in which local residents blocked UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) from entering certain villages, citing the lack of coordination with the Lebanese Army. Additional topics include logistical, administrative, and security preparations by the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities ahead of the first round of municipal elections in Mount Lebanon this coming Sunday.
According to the source, the Lebanese Army’s intelligence directorate has, under judicial supervision, compiled a list of wanted Hamas members based on interrogations with detained suspects involved in the rocket attacks.
The source did not rule out the possibility that the suspects may have sought refuge in Palestinian refugee camps, particularly Ain al-Hilweh in southern Lebanon, where Hamas may be protecting them in neighborhoods controlled by extremist factions.
The source argued that Palestinian weapons have lost their original purpose of defending against Israeli attacks and are now largely used for internal conflict and endangering nearby communities.
Disarming Palestinian groups inside the camps, the source said, aligns with the insistence of both Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government that all arms remain under the state’s authority. The matter is also expected to feature prominently in upcoming talks between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and Lebanese officials during his mid-month visit to Beirut.
On broader security concerns, the source noted that Lebanon is stepping up containment measures around the camps to prevent the militarization of nearby towns, especially those close to the Litani River.
Regarding Sunday’s Israeli airstrike on a warehouse in Beirut’s southern suburb, the source confirmed that the Lebanese Army had received no prior warning through the United States. Instead, Lebanese officials learned of the strike via media reports. This prompted Aoun to make urgent calls to several countries, including the US and France, which are considered guarantors of the ceasefire agreement. Subsequent information reportedly disproved Israel’s stated justification for the attack.