A Decade on, the Broken Dreams of the Arab Spring

A decade ago, protests in Tunisia sparked the Arab Spring uprisings. (AFP)
A decade ago, protests in Tunisia sparked the Arab Spring uprisings. (AFP)
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A Decade on, the Broken Dreams of the Arab Spring

A decade ago, protests in Tunisia sparked the Arab Spring uprisings. (AFP)
A decade ago, protests in Tunisia sparked the Arab Spring uprisings. (AFP)

"The revolution showed me that everything is possible," says Ameni Ghimaji, remembering the heady days of the Tunisian protests that sparked the so-called Arab Spring uprisings a decade ago.

She was just 18 when Tunisian long-time ruler Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fell from power, the first casualty of wave upon wave of demonstrations across the Middle East and North Africa which saw some iron-fisted leaders tumble, some brutally cling on and nations convulse in years of upheaval, conflict and civil war.

"We had no plan for the future, but we were sure of one thing: anything has to be better than this," added Ghimaji.

Ben Ali was ousted just hours after she was photographed, shouting and pumping her fist in the air, at a massive Tunis anti-regime rally.

Her picture swept the front pages and she became an iconic image of the youth in peaceful revolt.

The Tunisia protests were triggered when an impoverished street vendor set himself alight on December 17, 2010, weighed down by despair.

His shocking act of self-violence ignited long simmering tensions among young people, angered by Ben Ali's corrupt, nepotistic regime and hungry for new opportunities.

Less than four weeks later, Ben Ali had fled into exile, ended his 23-year rule and, drawing courage from his ouster, protesters began gathering elsewhere.

'Revenge'
Today across the Arab world, the 2011 uprisings have been blamed for opening the floodgates to violence and economic ruin, leaving millions of refugees and displaced, while countless others have had their lives blighted by chaos.

But for those who were there, the early demonstrations were times of exhilaration and hope.

On January 14, 2011, social networks were flooded with footage of lawyer Abdennaceur Aouini defying a curfew to stand in the iconic Avenue Habib Bourguiba of central Tunis, shouting: "Ben Ali has fled!"

It felt like "revenge. Since I was 18 I'd been hassled and imprisoned," Aouini, now aged 50, said.

But today, he admits he feels "disappointed".

"There is always hope. But I was in a dream, today I have come to my senses," added Aouini.

Despite the political freedoms Tunisians have won, they still face grinding unemployment, inflation and inequality.

"People thought that Ben Ali's departure would fix things, but that will take 20, 30 years," said lawyer and activist Houeida Anouar.

"I'm not sure that within my lifetime I'll see a Tunisia with a political scene worthy of the name, but I'm optimistic."

'Change inevitable'
While Tunisia does have a hard-won constitution, a flawed but functioning parliamentary system and free elections, elsewhere the picture is bleak.

In Libya and Syria initially peaceful uprisings sparked civil wars that have laid waste to cities and killed hundreds of thousands of people.

But that's not how it started, according to Majdi, a 36-year-old Libyan, who took part in protests against long-time ruler Moammar al-Gaddafi a decade ago.

"We were watching what happened in Tunisia and Egypt," he said. "It was our turn, change was inevitable."

Protesters' demands were "just a bit more freedom, some justice and some hope for the young people who didn't have any," he said.

Initially "there was no talk of overthrowing the regime."

Gaddafi’s killing in October 2011 plunged the country into a decade of violent chaos.

Majdi he insists he has no regrets: the revolution "was necessary, and I still believe in it."

'Dead either way'
"We were only demanding reform," said Dahnoun, a Syrian.

He joined some of the country's first protests against president Bashar Assad, and recalled "no chants were calling for division, or fighting, or war. On the contrary, it was very peaceful."

"I remember, we used to chant 'freedom, freedom, freedom' and nothing else," Dahnoun told AFP by phone from Idlib city.

But the movement was met with unremitting violence, including on some occasions the once taboo use of chemical weapons by Syrian regime forces, charges that Damascus denies.

"During that first protest we were attacked by regime thugs and security forces," said Dahnoun, who was 15 at the time.

As in Libya, the worsening situation in Syria drew in outside nations, seizing both an opportunity to boost their sway and minimize regional turbulence.

"We were played by foreign powers, and now Syrians have zero say and external players have the last word," he said.

"I don't have hope... Syria is not ours anymore."

A crushing 2015 intervention by Russia to prop up the Syrian regime saw Damascus claw back swathes of territory that had been held by opposition forces, and Assad now controls over 70 percent of the country.

But a brutal economic crisis, accentuated by Western sanctions, has seen the government criticized from all sides, even those who did not support the revolution.

Abu Hamza, a teacher from Daraa where the first demonstrations of the Syrian revolution began, says people have "no loyalty" towards the regime.

"When you are hungry, you have no more fear," the father-of-three told AFP by phone from Daraa.

"I'm dead either way. I'll either be killed by tanks or by hunger."



Will Israeli Strikes on Iran Negatively Impact Developments in Lebanon?

A man walks past a mural painting of Iranian flags in a street in Tehran on October 26, 2024. (AFP)
A man walks past a mural painting of Iranian flags in a street in Tehran on October 26, 2024. (AFP)
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Will Israeli Strikes on Iran Negatively Impact Developments in Lebanon?

A man walks past a mural painting of Iranian flags in a street in Tehran on October 26, 2024. (AFP)
A man walks past a mural painting of Iranian flags in a street in Tehran on October 26, 2024. (AFP)

It is too soon to tell how the latest Israeli strikes on Iran will impact the region, especially Lebanon. Officials in Lebanon have not yet determined whether the attacks will positively influence the fight between Israel and Hezbollah.

An official Lebanese source said that the United States’ ability to rein in Israel and prevent it from carrying out a strike against major Iranian facilities must not be tied to the developments in Lebanon.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, he explained that Israel’s insistence on its land incursion in Lebanon, occupation of Lebanese villages and its destructive air strikes across the country, demonstrate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not tying the Lebanese front to any other, especially Iran.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source added that the future of the Israeli war on Lebanon is unpredictable, at least until the American presidential elections are held.

Israel had informed Iran of its intention to attack before it launched the strikes, proving that US President Joe Biden’s administration averted a widescale war in the region days before the elections on November 5.

Former Lebanese Ambassador to Washington Antoine Chedid said the American administration succeeded in persuading Netanyahu to strike Iran within the limits it had drawn up.

He ruled out the possibility that the limited strike would positively impact Lebanon.

Netanyahu is determined to achieve his goals in the war on Lebanon, which are to eliminate Hezbollah and establish security along the Lebanese-Israeli border to allow residents of northern Israeli settlements to return home, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.

Moreover, he noted that the US doesn’t really have a specific policy on Lebanon. Rather, it has a regional policy and Lebanon is part of it.

The American elections will establish a new equation in the region. Chedid said that Kamala Harris’ win will represent a continuation of Biden’s policies.

A win for Donald Trump will put the region in a different position, especially given that he is critical of calls for Netanyahu to end the war on Gaza and Lebanon, he went on to say.

Axios had quoted three Israeli sources as saying that Tel Aviv had warned Tehran of the impending strike and of what Israel was going to attack and what it wasn’t.

Director of Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs Dr. Sami Nader said the American limits to the Israeli strikes are aimed at preventing the region from slipping into a major war, which Washington wants to avoid, and at averting any negative effects on Harris’ electoral chances.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that Israel will continue to pressure Iran and Lebanon is the main arena where it will do so instead of launching attacks deep into Iran given that the US is largely ignoring the developments in Lebanon and has a major interest in seeing Hezbollah weakened.

Gaza, on the other hand, has become a sore point for Washington given the major destruction there and the massacres Israel has committed against the Palestinian people, he remarked.

Ultimately, the strikes against Iran are not the end of the road, continued Nader.

By not attacking Iranian oil, gas and nuclear facilities and thus avoiding a widescale war, Netanyahu gave Biden a positive boost and he probably earned more weapons for Israel in return, he explained.

This will not be the last Israeli strike on Iran, he warned.