Tunisian Parliament Approves 2021 Budget With Deficit Forecast at 7% GDP

The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo
The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo
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Tunisian Parliament Approves 2021 Budget With Deficit Forecast at 7% GDP

The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo
The central bank in Tunis | REUTERS/Zoubeir Souissi/File Photo

Tunisia's Parliament has approved with 110 votes in favor, 21 against, and two abstentions, the 2021 budget law with a deficit forecast at 8 billion dinars, or 2.5 billion euros, over 7% of GDP. State expenditure, according to the official page of Parliament, will total 41 billion dinars while revenues should reach 33 billion dinars.

Calculated on a price of oil at 45 dollars per barrel, the budget law sets a growth target of 4% in 2021, after a historic drop of GDP of 7% forecast in 2020 due to the crisis sparked by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Debate on the draft legislation began at the end of November and was marked by strong political tension with at times clashes recorded between bickering parties. According to the new measures, corporate taxes will go from 15% for those who had to pay 25%. Moreover, deductions on capital gains on the sale of stocks and bonds were cut from 25% to 15%.

Deductions on payments, commissions, intermediation, rentals, and revenues from noncommercial activities as well as payments in exchange for services dropped from 15% to 10%.

These dispositions will concern revenues made from January 1, 2021, and declared in 2022 and over the subsequent years.

Withholding taxes will occur as of January 1, 2021. The State budget for 2021 does not provide for hires in the public sector with the exception of healthcare and the security sector.

The Tunisian Central Bank (BCT) has criticized a deficit that was deemed excessive in 2020 (14% of GDP) and excessive internal financing in the supplementary budget. The four-year financing plan of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) ended in the spring without defining a certain strategy of collaboration for the future and an IMF delegation is about to arrive in Tunis, the Tunisian economy minister said recently.

Tunisia over the past few years has relied heavily on international donors. During the presentation of the draft budget in Parliament on November 28, the head of government Hichem Mechichi said the text presents ''a quantified framework'' of the ''infructuous'' political consequences stemming from several years of economic, social, and political instability. From the revolution in 2011, nine governments have taken office, preventing the adoption of fundamental reforms to relaunch an economy in difficulty.



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.